Last Update: 31 March 2024
Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 7.252% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 10 years in the 100% of cases. In the 71.57% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 10 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio
Over the last 10 years (last update: March 2024), the portfolio has returned 10.18% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -22.73%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 13.942%.
Timeframes ending at Mar 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 10 Years |
1 Apr 2014 |
31 Mar 2024 | 6.953 | 13.942 |
10.18 [ 7.15 ] |
-22.73 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Jun 1908 |
0.000 Jun 1910 |
1.675 Jul 1911 |
4.901 Jul 1911 |
7.252 Sep 1929 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
1.284 |
3.958 |
6.523 |
8.686 |
||
|
90% |
0.155 |
2.450 |
4.702 |
7.038 |
9.407 |
||
|
80% |
2.456 |
4.477 |
6.567 |
8.661 |
10.706 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
6.274 |
8.076 |
9.826 |
11.625 |
13.491 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
16.813 Jul 1932 |
19.324 Jul 1932 |
21.835 Jul 1932 |
24.346 Jul 1932 |
26.857 Jul 1932 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Jun 1964 |
0.000 Oct 1964 |
2.667 Aug 1972 |
5.283 Jun 1972 |
7.252 Sep 1929 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
1.304 |
3.914 |
6.510 |
8.772 |
||
|
90% |
0.000 |
2.314 |
4.667 |
7.083 |
9.489 |
||
|
80% |
2.413 |
4.441 |
6.546 |
8.622 |
10.638 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
6.498 |
8.269 |
9.921 |
11.713 |
13.491 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
16.813 Jul 1932 |
19.324 Jul 1932 |
21.835 Jul 1932 |
24.346 Jul 1932 |
26.857 Jul 1932 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Nov 1998 |
0.000 Mar 1999 |
3.105 Mar 1999 |
5.878 Sep 2000 |
8.357 Sep 2000 |
|
|
95% |
0.000 |
2.271 |
4.972 |
7.304 |
9.884 |
||
|
90% |
2.609 |
4.654 |
6.713 |
8.805 |
10.671 |
||
|
80% |
4.572 |
6.325 |
7.989 |
9.700 |
11.351 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
7.355 |
9.151 |
10.919 |
12.616 |
14.272 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
14.090 Aug 1982 |
15.635 Aug 1982 |
17.181 Aug 1982 |
18.727 Aug 1982 |
20.273 Aug 1982 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.88
|
91.74
|
82.91
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.42
|
89.83
|
79.94
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.84
|
87.79
|
77.33
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.33
|
86.51
|
74.77
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.71
|
83.26
|
71.57
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
91.34
|
79.71
|
67.38
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.94
|
88.60
|
77.50
|
61.69
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
98.95
|
86.22
|
74.83
|
57.62
|
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
97.79
|
83.72
|
70.81
|
52.62
|
|
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
95.17
|
80.41
|
66.10
|
47.62
|
|
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.252% |
0.00 |
90.47
|
77.79
|
60.81
|
41.74
|
| 7.50 % |
99.88
|
0.12 |
86.92
|
74.48
|
55.76
|
36.63
|
|
| 8.00 % |
99.30
|
0.70 |
84.53
|
69.83
|
50.64
|
31.92
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
91.40
|
81.96
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
89.18
|
79.65
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.17
|
87.42
|
77.71
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.50
|
85.57
|
75.76
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.45
|
82.42
|
72.90
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
90.75
|
79.74
|
68.36
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
88.44
|
77.52
|
62.72
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
98.89
|
85.94
|
75.95
|
59.85
|
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
97.69
|
83.26
|
71.79
|
54.76
|
|
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
95.00
|
80.11
|
66.42
|
49.95
|
|
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 7.252% |
0.00 |
90.47
|
77.61
|
61.42
|
43.76
|
| 7.50 % |
99.81
|
0.19 |
87.23
|
74.65
|
57.45
|
38.95
|
|
| 8.00 % |
98.98
|
1.02 |
84.37
|
69.75
|
52.91
|
34.41
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 10 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
95.43
|
91.48
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.80
|
90.44
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.39
|
88.98
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.75
|
94.18
|
88.36
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.51
|
92.10
|
85.86
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
95.22
|
90.23
|
80.87
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.80
|
88.98
|
73.60
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.18
|
88.36
|
71.10
|
|
| 6.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.79
|
92.93
|
83.58
|
65.70
|
|
| 6.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
97.71
|
91.06
|
76.92
|
61.75
|
|
| 7.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
95.63
|
88.98
|
71.93
|
54.47
|
|
| 7.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
94.59
|
86.28
|
67.78
|
47.82
|
|
| 8.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
93.35
|
79.63
|
64.24
|
42.20
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
