Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 8.9% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -42.23%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 8.584%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 May 2003 |
30 Apr 2023 | 6.008 | 8.584 |
8.90 [ 6.20 ] |
-42.23 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 May 1901 |
0.844 Jul 1901 |
2.359 Jul 1901 |
3.578 Sep 1929 |
4.422 Sep 1929 |
5.247 95% Succ. |
5.548 90% Succ. |
6.114 80% Succ. |
8.523 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
5.743 |
6.431 |
7.073 |
7.823 |
8.523 | |||||
Average |
5.737 |
6.427 |
7.119 |
7.810 |
8.501 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
13.898 Jul 1932 |
14.541 Jul 1932 |
15.184 Jul 1932 |
15.826 Jul 1932 |
16.469 Jul 1932 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
1.859 |
2.309 |
3.159 |
5.743 |
75% |
0.844 |
2.770 |
3.198 |
3.897 |
6.431 |
|
50% |
2.359 |
3.655 |
4.043 |
4.731 |
7.073 |
|
25% |
3.578 |
4.501 |
4.805 |
5.460 |
7.823 |
|
0% |
4.422 |
5.247 |
5.548 |
6.114 |
8.523 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
1.046 Sep 1929 |
1.890 Sep 1929 |
2.734 Sep 1929 |
3.578 Sep 1929 |
4.422 Sep 1929 |
5.177 95% Succ. |
5.477 90% Succ. |
6.246 80% Succ. |
8.623 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
6.079 |
6.685 |
7.304 |
8.012 |
8.623 | |||||
Average |
5.917 |
6.585 |
7.253 |
7.921 |
8.589 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
13.898 Jul 1932 |
14.541 Jul 1932 |
15.184 Jul 1932 |
15.826 Jul 1932 |
16.469 Jul 1932 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
1.046 |
2.059 |
2.552 |
3.211 |
6.079 |
75% |
1.890 |
2.853 |
3.406 |
3.916 |
6.685 |
|
50% |
2.734 |
3.700 |
4.111 |
4.698 |
7.304 |
|
25% |
3.578 |
4.462 |
4.816 |
5.469 |
8.012 |
|
0% |
4.422 |
5.177 |
5.477 |
6.246 |
8.623 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
2.318 Apr 2000 |
3.031 Apr 2000 |
3.744 Apr 2000 |
4.457 Apr 2000 |
5.170 Apr 2000 |
5.747 95% Succ. |
6.135 90% Succ. |
7.405 80% Succ. |
9.373 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
6.574 |
7.279 |
7.963 |
8.703 |
9.373 | |||||
Average |
6.717 |
7.322 |
7.927 |
8.532 |
9.136 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
12.236 Aug 1982 |
12.826 Aug 1982 |
13.415 Aug 1982 |
14.004 Aug 1982 |
14.594 Aug 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
2.318 |
3.218 |
3.864 |
4.981 |
6.574 |
75% |
3.031 |
3.841 |
4.420 |
5.689 |
7.279 |
|
50% |
3.744 |
4.465 |
4.962 |
6.289 |
7.963 |
|
25% |
4.457 |
5.155 |
5.516 |
6.824 |
8.703 |
|
0% |
5.170 |
5.747 |
6.135 |
7.405 |
9.373 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.06
|
93.58
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.94
|
98.05
|
87.92
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.31
|
92.64
|
82.19
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.61
|
86.41
|
77.03
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.422% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.69
|
90.50
|
78.85
|
71.18
|
4.50 % |
99.94
|
0.06 |
99.94
|
95.03
|
82.95
|
72.69
|
65.26
|
|
5.00 % |
98.55
|
95% Succ. 5.247% |
1.45 |
98.55
|
86.91
|
75.02
|
67.53
|
60.42
|
5.50 % |
91.13
|
90% Succ. 5.548% |
8.87 |
91.13
|
78.79
|
69.16
|
62.93
|
53.24
|
6.00 % |
81.69
|
80% Succ. 6.114% |
18.31 |
81.69
|
72.62
|
65.14
|
56.32
|
46.76
|
6.50 % |
75.52
|
24.48 |
75.52
|
66.90
|
59.41
|
49.09
|
39.40
|
|
7.00 % |
70.99
|
29.01 |
70.99
|
62.43
|
51.60
|
42.16
|
32.47
|
|
7.50 % |
64.69
|
35.31 |
64.69
|
54.81
|
44.18
|
33.98
|
26.68
|
|
8.00 % |
58.15
|
41.85 |
58.15
|
47.14
|
35.68
|
27.94
|
21.59
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.90
|
95.32
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.06
|
90.53
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.79
|
93.96
|
83.45
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.13
|
88.55
|
76.59
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.422% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.58
|
91.57
|
78.88
|
71.90
|
4.50 % |
99.90
|
0.10 |
99.90
|
94.28
|
82.93
|
73.67
|
66.08
|
|
5.00 % |
97.71
|
95% Succ. 5.177% |
2.29 |
97.71
|
86.78
|
76.38
|
69.20
|
61.29
|
5.50 % |
89.39
|
10.61 |
89.39
|
79.19
|
71.07
|
63.79
|
56.71
|
|
6.00 % |
82.52
|
80% Succ. 6.246% |
17.48 |
82.52
|
74.82
|
66.81
|
58.17
|
51.51
|
6.50 % |
76.59
|
23.41 |
76.59
|
68.37
|
60.15
|
53.17
|
42.87
|
|
7.00 % |
71.90
|
28.10 |
71.90
|
63.58
|
54.53
|
45.89
|
35.38
|
|
7.50 % |
64.83
|
35.17 |
64.83
|
56.50
|
47.87
|
36.94
|
29.03
|
|
8.00 % |
59.21
|
40.79 |
59.21
|
50.26
|
38.81
|
30.07
|
23.62
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.61
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.89
|
93.07
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
93.91
|
88.92
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.72
|
94.74
|
88.92
|
85.04
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.170% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
96.12
|
89.47
|
85.60
|
79.78
|
5.50 % |
97.78
|
95% Succ. 5.747% |
2.22 |
97.78
|
90.03
|
86.15
|
80.61
|
75.62
|
6.00 % |
91.41
|
90% Succ. 6.135% |
8.59 |
91.41
|
87.53
|
81.16
|
77.84
|
68.42
|
6.50 % |
87.53
|
12.47 |
87.53
|
81.99
|
78.12
|
72.30
|
52.91
|
|
7.00 % |
82.27
|
80% Succ. 7.405% |
17.73 |
82.27
|
79.22
|
73.41
|
59.56
|
41.27
|
7.50 % |
79.50
|
20.50 |
79.50
|
74.79
|
65.10
|
44.04
|
32.41
|
|
8.00 % |
74.79
|
25.21 |
74.79
|
67.31
|
48.48
|
34.35
|
26.59
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com