Last Update: 30 November 2024
Do you have in mind a 80 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 80-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.14% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 80 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 80 years in the 75.79% of cases. In the 69.37% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 80 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio
Over the last 80 years (last update: November 2024), the portfolio has returned 9.17% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -32.38%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 4.973%.
Timeframes ending at Nov 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
80 Years |
1 Dec 1944 |
30 Nov 2024 | 4.894 | 4.973 |
9.17 [ 5.31 ] |
-32.38 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 80-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.973 Jul 1901 |
3.015 Jul 1901 |
3.057 Jul 1901 |
3.098 Jul 1901 |
3.140 Jul 1901 |
|
95% |
3.296 |
3.339 |
3.375 |
3.408 |
3.453 |
||
90% |
3.501 |
3.531 |
3.568 |
3.597 |
3.631 |
||
80% |
3.798 |
3.830 |
3.862 |
3.892 |
3.922 |
||
50% Median WR |
4.480 |
4.503 |
4.525 |
4.546 |
4.568 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
8.621 Jun 1920 |
8.636 Jun 1920 |
8.651 Jun 1920 |
8.666 Jun 1920 |
8.684 Jul 1932 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
3.404 Mar 1937 |
3.425 Mar 1937 |
3.446 Mar 1937 |
3.467 Mar 1937 |
3.488 Mar 1937 |
|
95% |
3.667 |
3.688 |
3.710 |
3.731 |
3.753 |
||
90% |
3.830 |
3.852 |
3.874 |
3.905 |
3.936 |
||
80% |
4.100 |
4.120 |
4.140 |
4.159 |
4.178 |
||
50% Median WR |
4.735 |
4.757 |
4.778 |
4.800 |
4.821 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
8.587 Jul 1932 |
8.611 Jul 1932 |
8.636 Jul 1932 |
8.660 Jul 1932 |
8.684 Jul 1932 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, over 80 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 80-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 80 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 80 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.140% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.89
|
3.50 % |
93.92
|
90% Succ. 3.631% |
6.08 |
93.47
|
92.34
|
91.78
|
90.09
|
4.00 % |
75.79
|
24.21 |
74.77
|
72.97
|
71.51
|
69.37
|
|
4.50 % |
52.36
|
50% Succ. 4.568% |
47.64 |
51.69
|
50.23
|
50.00
|
49.10
|
5.00 % |
39.30
|
60.70 |
39.08
|
38.63
|
38.06
|
37.50
|
|
5.50 % |
28.04
|
71.96 |
27.82
|
27.59
|
27.36
|
27.03
|
|
6.00 % |
22.07
|
77.93 |
21.96
|
21.85
|
21.73
|
21.62
|
|
6.50 % |
17.34
|
82.66 |
17.00
|
16.44
|
15.99
|
15.43
|
|
7.00 % |
10.02
|
89.98 |
9.57
|
9.01
|
8.78
|
8.22
|
|
7.50 % |
3.60
|
96.40 |
3.60
|
3.38
|
3.38
|
3.38
|
|
8.00 % |
2.25
|
97.75 |
2.25
|
2.25
|
2.14
|
2.14
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 80 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 80 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.488% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
3.50 % |
99.17
|
95% Succ. 3.753% |
0.83 |
99.17
|
98.76
|
98.34
|
97.10
|
4.00 % |
87.14
|
80% Succ. 4.178% |
12.86 |
86.72
|
85.89
|
85.89
|
84.65
|
4.50 % |
65.98
|
50% Succ. 4.821% |
34.02 |
65.15
|
62.24
|
62.24
|
60.58
|
5.00 % |
39.83
|
60.17 |
39.42
|
38.59
|
37.76
|
36.10
|
|
5.50 % |
23.65
|
76.35 |
23.65
|
23.65
|
23.24
|
22.82
|
|
6.00 % |
12.45
|
87.55 |
12.03
|
11.62
|
11.20
|
10.79
|
|
6.50 % |
3.73
|
96.27 |
3.32
|
2.90
|
2.90
|
2.90
|
|
7.00 % |
1.66
|
98.34 |
1.24
|
1.24
|
1.24
|
1.24
|
|
7.50 % |
0.83
|
99.17 |
0.83
|
0.83
|
0.83
|
0.83
|
|
8.00 % |
0.83
|
99.17 |
0.83
|
0.83
|
0.83
|
0.83
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com