Last Update: 31 October 2024
Do you have in mind a 60 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 60-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.251% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 60 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 60 years in the 83.23% of cases. In the 71.61% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 60 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio
Over the last 60 years (last update: October 2024), the portfolio has returned 8.9% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -32.38%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 3.612%.
Timeframes ending at Oct 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
60 Years |
1 Nov 1964 |
31 Oct 2024 | 3.392 | 3.612 |
8.90 [ 4.78 ] |
-32.38 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 60-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
3.028 Jul 1901 |
3.084 Jul 1901 |
3.140 Jul 1901 |
3.195 Jul 1901 |
3.251 Jul 1901 |
|
95% |
3.405 |
3.459 |
3.514 |
3.574 |
3.633 |
||
90% |
3.579 |
3.631 |
3.688 |
3.742 |
3.792 |
||
80% |
3.814 |
3.883 |
3.950 |
4.019 |
4.083 |
||
50% Median WR |
4.428 |
4.513 |
4.576 |
4.649 |
4.722 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
8.669 Jul 1932 |
8.739 Jul 1932 |
8.810 Jun 1920 |
8.908 Jun 1920 |
9.005 Jun 1920 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
3.364 Mar 1937 |
3.421 Mar 1937 |
3.477 Mar 1937 |
3.533 Mar 1937 |
3.590 Mar 1937 |
|
95% |
3.613 |
3.671 |
3.736 |
3.794 |
3.852 |
||
90% |
3.743 |
3.811 |
3.871 |
3.931 |
3.987 |
||
80% |
4.023 |
4.069 |
4.127 |
4.185 |
4.247 |
||
50% Median WR |
4.639 |
4.704 |
4.770 |
4.835 |
4.901 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
8.669 Jul 1932 |
8.739 Jul 1932 |
8.809 Jul 1932 |
8.879 Jul 1932 |
8.950 Jul 1932 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, over 60 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 60-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 60 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.251% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
3.50 % |
98.14
|
95% Succ. 3.633% |
1.86 |
96.36
|
95.30
|
94.23
|
92.55
|
4.00 % |
83.23
|
80% Succ. 4.083% |
16.77 |
80.66
|
77.99
|
75.33
|
71.61
|
4.50 % |
59.01
|
50% Succ. 4.722% |
40.99 |
55.90
|
52.62
|
50.22
|
47.74
|
5.00 % |
42.24
|
57.76 |
41.26
|
39.93
|
39.40
|
37.89
|
|
5.50 % |
32.65
|
67.35 |
31.68
|
30.17
|
29.37
|
27.15
|
|
6.00 % |
22.63
|
77.37 |
21.21
|
20.67
|
19.52
|
18.46
|
|
6.50 % |
16.50
|
83.50 |
15.44
|
14.46
|
13.22
|
12.24
|
|
7.00 % |
10.12
|
89.88 |
9.05
|
8.52
|
7.81
|
7.10
|
|
7.50 % |
5.15
|
94.85 |
4.26
|
3.73
|
3.28
|
2.84
|
|
8.00 % |
2.48
|
97.52 |
2.31
|
2.13
|
1.77
|
1.60
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 60 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.590% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.58
|
98.13
|
96.88
|
4.00 % |
88.98
|
80% Succ. 4.247% |
11.02 |
87.11
|
85.45
|
83.99
|
81.50
|
4.50 % |
66.32
|
50% Succ. 4.901% |
33.68 |
64.03
|
59.88
|
57.38
|
54.47
|
5.00 % |
45.32
|
54.68 |
43.66
|
41.16
|
39.92
|
38.05
|
|
5.50 % |
32.02
|
67.98 |
31.60
|
29.52
|
29.11
|
25.78
|
|
6.00 % |
16.63
|
83.37 |
13.72
|
12.68
|
11.43
|
9.15
|
|
6.50 % |
5.61
|
94.39 |
3.95
|
2.91
|
2.49
|
1.66
|
|
7.00 % |
0.83
|
99.17 |
0.83
|
0.83
|
0.83
|
0.62
|
|
7.50 % |
0.62
|
99.38 |
0.62
|
0.62
|
0.42
|
0.42
|
|
8.00 % |
0.42
|
99.58 |
0.42
|
0.42
|
0.42
|
0.42
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com