US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio: 60-year retirement

Last Update: 31 May 2024

Do you have in mind a 60 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 60-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.251% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 60 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 60 years in the 83.6% of cases. In the 71.93% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 60 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio

Over the last 60 years (last update: May 2024), the portfolio has returned 8.87% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -32.38%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 3.713%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at May 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]
Max
Drawdown(%)
60 Years 1 Jun 1964
31 May 2024 3.483 3.713 8.87
[ 4.74 ]
-32.38
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at May 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at May 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 60-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - May 2024
Period: Jun 1924 - May 2024
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
3.028
Jul 1901
3.084
Jul 1901
3.140
Jul 1901
3.195
Jul 1901
3.251
Jul 1901
95%
3.422
3.476
3.530
3.586
3.641
90%
3.583
3.641
3.696
3.748
3.806
80%
3.820
3.890
3.958
4.022
4.090
50%
Median WR
4.437
4.519
4.579
4.654
4.728
Only 1 case
Best Period (From)
8.669
Jul 1932
8.739
Jul 1932
8.810
Jun 1920
8.908
Jun 1920
9.005
Jun 1920
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
3.364
Mar 1937
3.421
Mar 1937
3.477
Mar 1937
3.533
Mar 1937
3.590
Mar 1937
95%
3.647
3.700
3.759
3.813
3.867
90%
3.754
3.828
3.893
3.953
4.011
80%
4.027
4.081
4.143
4.206
4.259
50%
Median WR
4.654
4.713
4.788
4.846
4.915
Only 1 case
Best Period (From)
8.669
Jul 1932
8.739
Jul 1932
8.809
Jul 1932
8.879
Jul 1932
8.950
Jul 1932
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at May 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, over 60 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 60-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - May 2024
Period: Jun 1924 - May 2024
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 60 Years
% Fail
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.251%
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
98.13
95% Succ.
3.641%
1.87
96.35
95.28
94.47
92.96
4.00 %
83.60
80% Succ.
4.090%
16.40
81.02
78.34
75.67
71.93
4.50 %
59.27
50% Succ.
4.728%
40.73
56.15
52.85
50.45
47.95
5.00 %
42.42
57.58
41.44
40.11
39.57
38.06
5.50 %
32.80
67.20
31.82
30.30
29.50
27.27
6.00 %
22.73
77.27
21.30
20.77
19.61
18.54
6.50 %
16.58
83.42
15.51
14.53
13.28
12.30
7.00 %
10.16
89.84
9.09
8.56
7.84
7.13
7.50 %
5.17
94.83
4.28
3.74
3.30
2.85
8.00 %
2.50
97.50
2.32
2.14
1.78
1.60
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 60 Years
% Fail
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.590%
0.00
100.00
99.58
98.75
97.92
4.00 %
90.02
90% Succ.
4.011%
9.98
88.15
86.49
85.03
82.54
4.50 %
67.36
50% Succ.
4.915%
32.64
65.07
60.91
58.42
55.51
5.00 %
46.36
53.64
44.70
42.20
40.96
39.09
5.50 %
33.06
66.94
32.64
30.56
30.15
26.82
6.00 %
17.67
82.33
14.76
13.72
12.47
10.19
6.50 %
6.65
93.35
4.99
3.95
2.91
2.08
7.00 %
1.04
98.96
0.83
0.83
0.83
0.62
7.50 %
0.62
99.38
0.62
0.62
0.42
0.42
8.00 %
0.42
99.58
0.42
0.42
0.42
0.42
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at May 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio

For the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com