Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 40 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 40 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio
Over the last 40 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 9% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -32.38%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.621%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
40 Years |
1 May 1983 |
30 Apr 2023 | 6.875 | 7.621 |
9.00 [ 5.98 ] |
-32.38 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 40-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
2.786 Jul 1901 |
2.994 Jul 1901 |
3.201 Jul 1901 |
3.408 Jul 1901 |
3.615 Jul 1901 |
3.927 95% Succ. |
4.091 90% Succ. |
4.389 80% Succ. |
5.268 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
4.364 |
4.607 |
4.818 |
5.029 |
5.268 | |||||
Average |
4.878 |
5.086 |
5.294 |
5.503 |
5.711 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
9.643 Aug 1982 |
9.814 Aug 1982 |
9.985 Aug 1982 |
10.156 Aug 1982 |
10.328 Aug 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
2.786 |
3.145 |
3.306 |
3.594 |
4.364 |
75% |
2.994 |
3.349 |
3.494 |
3.803 |
4.607 |
|
50% |
3.201 |
3.548 |
3.686 |
4.004 |
4.818 |
|
25% |
3.408 |
3.743 |
3.891 |
4.196 |
5.029 |
|
0% |
3.615 |
3.927 |
4.091 |
4.389 |
5.268 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
2.882 Dec 1968 |
3.088 Dec 1968 |
3.295 Dec 1968 |
3.501 Dec 1968 |
3.707 Dec 1968 |
3.940 95% Succ. |
4.172 90% Succ. |
4.512 80% Succ. |
5.511 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
4.602 |
4.802 |
5.033 |
5.266 |
5.511 | |||||
Average |
4.941 |
5.135 |
5.330 |
5.524 |
5.718 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
9.643 Aug 1982 |
9.814 Aug 1982 |
9.985 Aug 1982 |
10.156 Aug 1982 |
10.328 Aug 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
2.882 |
3.279 |
3.442 |
3.693 |
4.602 |
75% |
3.088 |
3.443 |
3.616 |
3.887 |
4.802 |
|
50% |
3.295 |
3.613 |
3.822 |
4.099 |
5.033 |
|
25% |
3.501 |
3.784 |
3.988 |
4.297 |
5.266 |
|
0% |
3.707 |
3.940 |
4.172 |
4.512 |
5.511 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, over 40 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 40-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
40 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.93
|
98.67
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.615% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.85
|
96.66
|
89.84
|
84.43
|
4.00 % |
92.59
|
90% Succ. 4.091% |
7.41 |
92.59
|
86.88
|
80.21
|
73.09
|
63.90
|
4.50 % |
76.87
|
23.13 |
76.87
|
69.24
|
60.56
|
52.19
|
46.11
|
|
5.00 % |
57.60
|
50% Succ. 5.268% |
42.40 |
57.60
|
50.85
|
45.59
|
40.77
|
35.58
|
5.50 % |
45.14
|
54.86 |
45.14
|
41.14
|
36.77
|
32.99
|
28.91
|
|
6.00 % |
38.25
|
61.75 |
38.25
|
32.62
|
27.58
|
24.76
|
22.46
|
|
6.50 % |
27.43
|
72.57 |
27.43
|
23.35
|
21.28
|
19.87
|
18.01
|
|
7.00 % |
20.39
|
79.61 |
20.39
|
18.16
|
16.60
|
14.90
|
12.97
|
|
7.50 % |
14.60
|
85.40 |
14.60
|
13.12
|
11.34
|
9.64
|
8.23
|
|
8.00 % |
9.86
|
90.14 |
9.86
|
8.45
|
6.30
|
4.97
|
3.85
|
Withdrawal Rate |
40 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.707% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.61
|
93.48
|
88.63
|
4.00 % |
93.76
|
90% Succ. 4.172% |
6.24 |
93.76
|
89.74
|
83.36
|
76.70
|
70.32
|
4.50 % |
80.03
|
80% Succ. 4.512% |
19.97 |
80.03
|
73.51
|
65.19
|
57.84
|
52.01
|
5.00 % |
62.00
|
38.00 |
62.00
|
55.89
|
50.90
|
45.49
|
41.05
|
|
5.50 % |
50.07
|
50% Succ. 5.511% |
49.93 |
50.07
|
44.66
|
40.64
|
37.86
|
31.90
|
6.00 % |
39.94
|
60.06 |
39.94
|
35.23
|
29.13
|
24.83
|
21.36
|
|
6.50 % |
27.18
|
72.82 |
27.18
|
22.19
|
19.56
|
17.06
|
14.15
|
|
7.00 % |
17.61
|
82.39 |
17.61
|
14.15
|
12.34
|
11.37
|
9.15
|
|
7.50 % |
10.68
|
89.32 |
10.68
|
8.88
|
7.77
|
6.10
|
4.85
|
|
8.00 % |
5.69
|
94.31 |
5.69
|
4.85
|
3.47
|
3.05
|
2.64
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com