Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 30 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio
Over the last 30 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 7.88% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -32.38%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.294%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
30 Years |
1 May 1993 |
30 Apr 2023 | 5.716 | 7.294 |
7.88 [ 5.24 ] |
-32.38 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
1.731 Jun 1902 |
2.395 Jun 1902 |
3.058 Jun 1902 |
3.669 Jul 1901 |
3.999 Dec 1968 |
4.320 95% Succ. |
4.542 90% Succ. |
4.925 80% Succ. |
6.309 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
4.660 |
5.017 |
5.409 |
5.861 |
6.309 | |||||
Average |
5.027 |
5.401 |
5.776 |
6.150 |
6.525 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
9.949 Aug 1982 |
10.284 Aug 1982 |
10.620 Aug 1982 |
10.956 Aug 1982 |
11.291 Aug 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
1.731 |
2.966 |
3.173 |
3.481 |
4.660 |
75% |
2.395 |
3.353 |
3.554 |
3.873 |
5.017 |
|
50% |
3.058 |
3.680 |
3.905 |
4.269 |
5.409 |
|
25% |
3.669 |
3.988 |
4.216 |
4.602 |
5.861 |
|
0% |
3.999 |
4.320 |
4.542 |
4.925 |
6.309 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
2.793 Feb 1965 |
3.138 Feb 1965 |
3.483 Feb 1965 |
3.783 Nov 1965 |
3.999 Dec 1968 |
4.298 95% Succ. |
4.595 90% Succ. |
5.075 80% Succ. |
6.620 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
5.042 |
5.474 |
5.931 |
6.341 |
6.620 | |||||
Average |
5.175 |
5.528 |
5.881 |
6.235 |
6.588 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
9.949 Aug 1982 |
10.284 Aug 1982 |
10.620 Aug 1982 |
10.956 Aug 1982 |
11.291 Aug 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
2.793 |
3.196 |
3.405 |
3.690 |
5.042 |
75% |
3.138 |
3.513 |
3.696 |
4.062 |
5.474 |
|
50% |
3.483 |
3.775 |
4.000 |
4.410 |
5.931 |
|
25% |
3.783 |
4.037 |
4.298 |
4.747 |
6.341 |
|
0% |
3.999 |
4.298 |
4.595 |
5.075 |
6.620 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.86
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.86
|
99.18
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.25
|
94.21
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.999% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.64
|
91.56
|
79.31
|
4.00 % |
99.93
|
95% Succ. 4.320% |
0.07 |
99.93
|
94.62
|
87.20
|
74.68
|
61.27
|
4.50 % |
91.35
|
90% Succ. 4.542% |
8.65 |
91.35
|
82.57
|
69.98
|
58.75
|
51.80
|
5.00 % |
78.42
|
21.58 |
78.42
|
67.26
|
56.98
|
50.37
|
45.41
|
|
5.50 % |
65.15
|
34.85 |
65.15
|
56.09
|
49.15
|
44.18
|
39.01
|
|
6.00 % |
55.28
|
50% Succ. 6.309% |
44.72 |
55.28
|
47.86
|
43.84
|
36.01
|
29.07
|
6.50 % |
47.11
|
52.89 |
47.11
|
42.07
|
33.49
|
26.62
|
20.76
|
|
7.00 % |
40.71
|
59.29 |
40.71
|
31.31
|
24.57
|
17.97
|
14.84
|
|
7.50 % |
28.73
|
71.27 |
28.73
|
21.78
|
16.34
|
13.68
|
10.55
|
|
8.00 % |
20.22
|
79.78 |
20.22
|
15.04
|
11.78
|
8.78
|
6.19
|
Withdrawal Rate |
30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.86
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.999% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.64
|
95.24
|
86.68
|
4.00 % |
99.88
|
95% Succ. 4.298% |
0.12 |
99.88
|
95.48
|
89.89
|
81.81
|
72.06
|
4.50 % |
92.63
|
90% Succ. 4.595% |
7.37 |
92.63
|
85.37
|
76.93
|
68.25
|
60.40
|
5.00 % |
81.93
|
80% Succ. 5.075% |
18.07 |
81.93
|
73.37
|
65.28
|
58.26
|
50.89
|
5.50 % |
69.92
|
30.08 |
69.92
|
62.90
|
56.24
|
49.23
|
41.85
|
|
6.00 % |
59.81
|
40.19 |
59.81
|
54.22
|
48.87
|
38.05
|
30.56
|
|
6.50 % |
52.56
|
50% Succ. 6.620% |
47.44 |
52.56
|
45.90
|
35.43
|
27.35
|
19.86
|
7.00 % |
44.11
|
55.89 |
44.11
|
32.82
|
24.73
|
16.05
|
12.01
|
|
7.50 % |
29.37
|
70.63 |
29.37
|
20.33
|
13.79
|
10.34
|
6.42
|
|
8.00 % |
18.31
|
81.69 |
18.31
|
12.25
|
8.09
|
4.64
|
3.45
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com