Last Update: 28 February 2023
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 7.67% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -32.38%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 8.388%.
Timeframes ending at Feb 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 Mar 2003 |
28 Feb 2023 | 5.261 | 8.388 |
7.67 [ 5.06 ] |
-32.38 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1901 |
0.771 Jul 1901 |
2.282 Jul 1901 |
3.792 Jul 1901 |
4.748 Dec 1968 |
5.271 95% Succ. |
5.557 90% Succ. |
6.052 80% Succ. |
7.903 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
4.946 |
5.657 |
6.410 |
7.125 |
7.903 | |||||
Average |
5.038 |
5.785 |
6.534 |
7.282 |
8.031 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
11.140 Jul 1982 |
11.717 Jul 1982 |
12.300 Aug 1982 |
12.911 Aug 1982 |
13.522 Aug 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
1.530 |
2.061 |
3.010 |
4.946 |
75% |
0.771 |
2.558 |
2.966 |
3.734 |
5.657 |
|
50% |
2.282 |
3.557 |
3.875 |
4.480 |
6.410 |
|
25% |
3.792 |
4.437 |
4.758 |
5.275 |
7.125 |
|
0% |
4.748 |
5.271 |
5.557 |
6.052 |
7.903 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.646 Apr 1962 |
1.969 Apr 1962 |
3.246 Aug 1964 |
4.052 Dec 1968 |
4.748 Dec 1968 |
5.224 95% Succ. |
5.585 90% Succ. |
6.233 80% Succ. |
7.960 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
5.138 |
5.866 |
6.541 |
7.215 |
7.960 | |||||
Average |
5.094 |
5.831 |
6.569 |
7.307 |
8.044 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
11.140 Jul 1982 |
11.717 Jul 1982 |
12.300 Aug 1982 |
12.911 Aug 1982 |
13.522 Aug 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.646 |
1.881 |
2.239 |
3.091 |
5.138 |
75% |
1.969 |
2.805 |
3.186 |
3.846 |
5.866 |
|
50% |
3.246 |
3.671 |
4.059 |
4.594 |
6.541 |
|
25% |
4.052 |
4.504 |
4.869 |
5.437 |
7.215 |
|
0% |
4.748 |
5.224 |
5.585 |
6.233 |
7.960 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
2.567 Apr 2000 |
3.334 Apr 2000 |
4.102 Apr 2000 |
4.869 Apr 2000 |
5.463 Mar 1973 |
5.930 95% Succ. |
6.334 90% Succ. |
7.142 80% Succ. |
8.864 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
6.001 |
6.690 |
7.451 |
8.148 |
8.864 | |||||
Average |
6.176 |
6.823 |
7.470 |
8.117 |
8.764 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
11.140 Jul 1982 |
11.717 Jul 1982 |
12.300 Aug 1982 |
12.911 Aug 1982 |
13.522 Aug 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
2.567 |
3.290 |
3.685 |
4.514 |
6.001 |
75% |
3.334 |
3.950 |
4.298 |
5.170 |
6.690 |
|
50% |
4.102 |
4.633 |
4.938 |
5.897 |
7.451 |
|
25% |
4.869 |
5.308 |
5.622 |
6.528 |
8.148 |
|
0% |
5.463 |
5.930 |
6.334 |
7.142 |
8.864 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.61
|
90.61
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.87
|
95.65
|
84.25
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.37
|
89.67
|
80.15
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
95.46
|
82.67
|
71.20
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.87
|
88.28
|
75.87
|
64.27
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.748% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.08
|
79.40
|
67.55
|
56.52
|
5.00 % |
99.05
|
95% Succ. 5.271% |
0.95 |
99.05
|
85.57
|
71.14
|
60.11
|
49.46
|
5.50 % |
91.30
|
90% Succ. 5.557% |
8.70 |
91.30
|
75.17
|
64.34
|
52.49
|
43.73
|
6.00 % |
80.59
|
80% Succ. 6.052% |
19.41 |
80.59
|
68.05
|
56.58
|
45.68
|
35.22
|
6.50 % |
73.28
|
26.72 |
73.28
|
61.56
|
48.20
|
38.37
|
28.17
|
|
7.00 % |
66.35
|
33.65 |
66.35
|
53.25
|
41.27
|
30.88
|
20.98
|
|
7.50 % |
59.36
|
50% Succ. 7.903% |
40.64 |
59.36
|
43.73
|
33.71
|
24.01
|
15.44
|
8.00 % |
48.02
|
51.98 |
48.02
|
37.43
|
26.53
|
16.76
|
11.28
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.79
|
93.76
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.50
|
87.10
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
92.72
|
82.41
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.67
|
85.54
|
71.28
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
91.05
|
77.94
|
65.35
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.748% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
95.01
|
82.00
|
69.61
|
57.86
|
5.00 % |
98.65
|
95% Succ. 5.224% |
1.35 |
98.65
|
87.30
|
74.61
|
60.46
|
52.24
|
5.50 % |
91.68
|
90% Succ. 5.585% |
8.32 |
91.68
|
79.19
|
65.66
|
54.21
|
46.41
|
6.00 % |
83.98
|
80% Succ. 6.233% |
16.02 |
83.98
|
70.45
|
56.40
|
48.39
|
35.80
|
6.50 % |
75.65
|
24.35 |
75.65
|
61.81
|
50.57
|
39.75
|
28.41
|
|
7.00 % |
67.43
|
32.57 |
67.43
|
53.90
|
43.18
|
31.32
|
19.15
|
|
7.50 % |
58.79
|
50% Succ. 7.960% |
41.21 |
58.79
|
45.47
|
34.34
|
23.41
|
13.22
|
8.00 % |
49.12
|
50.88 |
49.12
|
38.92
|
26.74
|
14.67
|
8.64
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
91.97
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
93.91
|
86.98
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.51
|
88.09
|
80.06
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.463% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.17
|
89.75
|
81.99
|
75.62
|
5.50 % |
99.72
|
95% Succ. 5.930% |
0.28 |
99.72
|
91.14
|
83.93
|
77.84
|
68.14
|
6.00 % |
93.63
|
90% Succ. 6.334% |
6.37 |
93.63
|
85.87
|
78.95
|
71.19
|
50.14
|
6.50 % |
87.26
|
12.74 |
87.26
|
80.06
|
73.96
|
58.73
|
36.57
|
|
7.00 % |
81.72
|
80% Succ. 7.142% |
18.28 |
81.72
|
76.73
|
64.54
|
41.83
|
28.53
|
7.50 % |
77.84
|
22.16 |
77.84
|
66.76
|
47.65
|
30.75
|
23.82
|
|
8.00 % |
70.08
|
29.92 |
70.08
|
56.51
|
33.52
|
24.93
|
17.45
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com