US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio: 20-year retirement

Last Update: 28 February 2023

Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 4.748% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 100% of cases. In the 64.27% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 20 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio

Over the last 20 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 7.67% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -32.38%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 8.388%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Feb 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 Mar 2003
 28 Feb 2023 5.261 8.388 7.67
[ 5.06 ] 		-32.38
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Jan 1901 		0.771
Jul 1901 		2.282
Jul 1901 		3.792
Jul 1901 		4.748
Dec 1968 		5.271
95% Succ. 		5.557
90% Succ. 		6.052
80% Succ. 		7.903
50% Succ.
Median 4.946
 5.657
 6.410
 7.125
 7.903
Average 5.038
 5.785
 6.534
 7.282
 8.031
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		11.140
Jul 1982 		11.717
Jul 1982 		12.300
Aug 1982 		12.911
Aug 1982 		13.522
Aug 1982
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 1.530
 2.061
 3.010
 4.946
75% 0.771
 2.558
 2.966
 3.734
 5.657
50% 2.282
 3.557
 3.875
 4.480
 6.410
25% 3.792
 4.437
 4.758
 5.275
 7.125
0% 4.748
 5.271
 5.557
 6.052
 7.903
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.646
Apr 1962 		1.969
Apr 1962 		3.246
Aug 1964 		4.052
Dec 1968 		4.748
Dec 1968 		5.224
95% Succ. 		5.585
90% Succ. 		6.233
80% Succ. 		7.960
50% Succ.
Median 5.138
 5.866
 6.541
 7.215
 7.960
Average 5.094
 5.831
 6.569
 7.307
 8.044
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		11.140
Jul 1982 		11.717
Jul 1982 		12.300
Aug 1982 		12.911
Aug 1982 		13.522
Aug 1982
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.646
 1.881
 2.239
 3.091
 5.138
75% 1.969
 2.805
 3.186
 3.846
 5.866
50% 3.246
 3.671
 4.059
 4.594
 6.541
25% 4.052
 4.504
 4.869
 5.437
 7.215
0% 4.748
 5.224
 5.585
 6.233
 7.960
Period: Mar 1973 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		2.567
Apr 2000 		3.334
Apr 2000 		4.102
Apr 2000 		4.869
Apr 2000 		5.463
Mar 1973 		5.930
95% Succ. 		6.334
90% Succ. 		7.142
80% Succ. 		8.864
50% Succ.
Median 6.001
 6.690
 7.451
 8.148
 8.864
Average 6.176
 6.823
 7.470
 8.117
 8.764
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		11.140
Jul 1982 		11.717
Jul 1982 		12.300
Aug 1982 		12.911
Aug 1982 		13.522
Aug 1982
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 2.567
 3.290
 3.685
 4.514
 6.001
75% 3.334
 3.950
 4.298
 5.170
 6.690
50% 4.102
 4.633
 4.938
 5.897
 7.451
25% 4.869
 5.308
 5.622
 6.528
 8.148
0% 5.463
 5.930
 6.334
 7.142
 8.864
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
98.61
90.61
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.87
95.65
84.25
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.37
89.67
80.15
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
95.46
82.67
71.20
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.87
88.28
75.87
64.27
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.748% 		0.00
100.00
94.08
79.40
67.55
56.52
5.00 %
99.05
95% Succ.
5.271% 		0.95
99.05
85.57
71.14
60.11
49.46
5.50 %
91.30
90% Succ.
5.557% 		8.70
91.30
75.17
64.34
52.49
43.73
6.00 %
80.59
80% Succ.
6.052% 		19.41
80.59
68.05
56.58
45.68
35.22
6.50 %
73.28
26.72
73.28
61.56
48.20
38.37
28.17
7.00 %
66.35
33.65
66.35
53.25
41.27
30.88
20.98
7.50 %
59.36
50% Succ.
7.903% 		40.64
59.36
43.73
33.71
24.01
15.44
8.00 %
48.02
51.98
48.02
37.43
26.53
16.76
11.28
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.79
93.76
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
97.50
87.10
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
92.72
82.41
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
96.67
85.54
71.28
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
91.05
77.94
65.35
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.748% 		0.00
100.00
95.01
82.00
69.61
57.86
5.00 %
98.65
95% Succ.
5.224% 		1.35
98.65
87.30
74.61
60.46
52.24
5.50 %
91.68
90% Succ.
5.585% 		8.32
91.68
79.19
65.66
54.21
46.41
6.00 %
83.98
80% Succ.
6.233% 		16.02
83.98
70.45
56.40
48.39
35.80
6.50 %
75.65
24.35
75.65
61.81
50.57
39.75
28.41
7.00 %
67.43
32.57
67.43
53.90
43.18
31.32
19.15
7.50 %
58.79
50% Succ.
7.960% 		41.21
58.79
45.47
34.34
23.41
13.22
8.00 %
49.12
50.88
49.12
38.92
26.74
14.67
8.64
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1973 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.72
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.72
91.97
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
93.91
86.98
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
97.51
88.09
80.06
5.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
5.463% 		0.00
100.00
99.17
89.75
81.99
75.62
5.50 %
99.72
95% Succ.
5.930% 		0.28
99.72
91.14
83.93
77.84
68.14
6.00 %
93.63
90% Succ.
6.334% 		6.37
93.63
85.87
78.95
71.19
50.14
6.50 %
87.26
12.74
87.26
80.06
73.96
58.73
36.57
7.00 %
81.72
80% Succ.
7.142% 		18.28
81.72
76.73
64.54
41.83
28.53
7.50 %
77.84
22.16
77.84
66.76
47.65
30.75
23.82
8.00 %
70.08
29.92
70.08
56.51
33.52
24.93
17.45
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio

For the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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