Last Update: 31 March 2024
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 4.748% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 100% of cases. In the 64.56% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: March 2024), the portfolio has returned 7.45% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -32.38%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.166%.
Timeframes ending at Mar 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 20 Years |
1 Apr 2004 |
31 Mar 2024 | 4.327 | 7.166 |
7.45 [ 4.74 ] |
-32.38 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Jan 1901 |
0.771 Jul 1901 |
2.282 Jul 1901 |
3.792 Jul 1901 |
4.748 Dec 1968 |
|
|
95% |
1.548 |
2.561 |
3.566 |
4.447 |
5.276 |
||
|
90% |
2.066 |
2.976 |
3.880 |
4.761 |
5.560 |
||
|
80% |
3.014 |
3.745 |
4.484 |
5.279 |
6.057 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
4.915 |
5.644 |
6.406 |
7.114 |
7.896 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
11.140 Jul 1982 |
11.717 Jul 1982 |
12.300 Aug 1982 |
12.911 Aug 1982 |
13.522 Aug 1982 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.646 Apr 1962 |
1.969 Apr 1962 |
3.246 Aug 1964 |
4.052 Dec 1968 |
4.748 Dec 1968 |
|
|
95% |
1.881 |
2.805 |
3.671 |
4.504 |
5.224 |
||
|
90% |
2.239 |
3.186 |
4.059 |
4.869 |
5.585 |
||
|
80% |
3.091 |
3.846 |
4.594 |
5.437 |
6.233 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
5.083 |
5.772 |
6.458 |
7.125 |
7.901 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
11.140 Jul 1982 |
11.717 Jul 1982 |
12.300 Aug 1982 |
12.911 Aug 1982 |
13.522 Aug 1982 |
||
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.567 Apr 2000 |
3.334 Apr 2000 |
4.102 Apr 2000 |
4.869 Apr 2000 |
5.637 Apr 2000 |
|
|
95% |
3.292 |
3.963 |
4.658 |
5.360 |
6.085 |
||
|
90% |
3.983 |
4.700 |
5.331 |
5.922 |
6.543 |
||
|
80% |
4.668 |
5.389 |
6.124 |
6.865 |
7.476 |
||
|
50% Median WR |
6.001 |
6.690 |
7.451 |
8.148 |
8.864 |
||
|
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
11.140 Jul 1982 |
11.717 Jul 1982 |
12.300 Aug 1982 |
12.911 Aug 1982 |
13.522 Aug 1982 |
||
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.63
|
90.69
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.88
|
95.69
|
84.38
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.38
|
89.75
|
80.31
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
95.50
|
82.81
|
71.44
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.88
|
88.38
|
76.06
|
64.56
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.748% |
0.00 |
94.13
|
79.56
|
67.81
|
56.44
|
| 5.00 % |
99.06
|
95% Succ. 5.276% |
0.94 |
85.69
|
71.38
|
60.25
|
49.13
|
| 5.50 % |
91.38
|
90% Succ. 5.560% |
8.63 |
75.38
|
64.63
|
52.19
|
43.38
|
| 6.00 % |
80.75
|
80% Succ. 6.057% |
19.25 |
68.31
|
56.56
|
45.38
|
34.94
|
| 6.50 % |
73.50
|
26.50 |
61.63
|
47.88
|
38.06
|
27.94
|
|
| 7.00 % |
66.63
|
33.38 |
52.94
|
40.94
|
30.63
|
20.81
|
|
| 7.50 % |
59.31
|
50% Succ. 7.896% |
40.69 |
43.44
|
33.44
|
23.81
|
15.31
|
| 8.00 % |
47.69
|
52.31 |
37.13
|
26.31
|
16.63
|
11.19
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.79
|
93.76
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.50
|
87.10
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
92.72
|
82.41
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
96.67
|
85.54
|
71.28
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
91.05
|
77.94
|
65.35
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.748% |
0.00 |
95.01
|
82.00
|
69.61
|
57.13
|
| 5.00 % |
98.65
|
95% Succ. 5.224% |
1.35 |
87.30
|
74.61
|
60.15
|
50.99
|
| 5.50 % |
91.68
|
90% Succ. 5.585% |
8.32 |
79.19
|
65.66
|
53.07
|
45.06
|
| 6.00 % |
83.98
|
80% Succ. 6.233% |
16.02 |
70.45
|
55.78
|
47.14
|
34.44
|
| 6.50 % |
75.65
|
24.35 |
61.39
|
49.32
|
38.40
|
27.06
|
|
| 7.00 % |
67.43
|
32.57 |
52.76
|
41.83
|
29.97
|
17.90
|
|
| 7.50 % |
58.17
|
50% Succ. 7.901% |
41.83 |
44.22
|
32.99
|
22.06
|
12.17
|
| 8.00 % |
47.87
|
52.13 |
37.57
|
25.39
|
13.63
|
8.12
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
| 3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
|
| 3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
92.52
|
|
| 4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.46
|
89.47
|
|
| 4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.06
|
90.58
|
81.72
|
|
| 5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
99.72
|
92.24
|
84.76
|
75.90
|
|
| 5.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.637% |
0.00 |
93.63
|
87.53
|
78.39
|
68.14
|
| 6.00 % |
96.12
|
95% Succ. 6.085% |
3.88 |
89.20
|
80.89
|
71.47
|
50.14
|
| 6.50 % |
90.58
|
90% Succ. 6.543% |
9.42 |
82.55
|
74.24
|
58.73
|
36.57
|
| 7.00 % |
85.32
|
80% Succ. 7.476% |
14.68 |
77.29
|
64.54
|
41.83
|
28.53
|
| 7.50 % |
79.78
|
20.22 |
67.04
|
47.65
|
30.75
|
23.82
|
|
| 8.00 % |
70.36
|
29.64 |
56.51
|
33.52
|
24.93
|
17.45
|
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
