US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio: 10-year retirement

Last Update: 30 June 2024

Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 7.811% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 10 years in the 100% of cases. In the 67.67% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 10 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio

Over the last 10 years (last update: June 2024), the portfolio has returned 7.91% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -20.65%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 12.815%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at Jun 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]
Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 Jul 2014
30 Jun 2024 4.922 12.815 7.91
[ 4.97 ]
-20.65
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at June 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Jun 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Jun 2024
Period: Jul 1924 - Jun 2024
Period: Jul 1974 - Jun 2024
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
0.000
May 1908
0.000
Jun 1910
1.880
Jul 1911
5.040
Jul 1911
7.811
Jan 1973
95%
0.000
1.484
4.189
6.672
8.891
90%
0.248
2.533
4.860
7.289
9.787
80%
2.258
4.474
6.603
8.644
10.790
50%
Median WR
5.301
7.248
9.143
11.038
12.978
Only 1 case
Best Period (From)
14.119
Jun 1920
15.759
Jul 1932
18.218
Jul 1932
20.676
Jul 1932
23.135
Jul 1932
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
0.000
Jun 1964
0.167
Jul 1972
2.864
Jul 1972
5.515
Jun 1972
7.811
Jan 1973
95%
0.000
1.586
4.290
6.901
9.354
90%
0.267
2.655
5.059
7.468
9.938
80%
2.542
4.585
6.677
8.662
10.790
50%
Median WR
5.248
7.248
9.090
10.984
12.916
Only 1 case
Best Period (From)
13.301
Jul 1932
15.759
Jul 1932
18.218
Jul 1932
20.676
Jul 1932
23.135
Jul 1932
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
0.000
Dec 1998
1.258
Mar 1999
4.362
Mar 1999
6.887
Sep 2000
9.242
Sep 2000
95%
0.929
3.149
5.617
7.973
10.380
90%
2.803
4.840
7.009
9.091
10.890
80%
4.238
6.051
7.824
9.588
11.389
50%
Median WR
6.476
8.237
10.103
12.004
13.680
Only 1 case
Best Period (From)
12.909
Aug 1982
14.489
Aug 1982
16.069
Aug 1982
17.649
Aug 1982
19.228
Aug 1982
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at June 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Jun 2024
Period: Jul 1924 - Jun 2024
Period: Jul 1974 - Jun 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.94
92.69
82.07
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.48
90.19
78.99
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.13
87.99
75.86
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.03
85.32
72.43
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
96.11
82.53
67.67
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
92.57
79.98
60.53
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
89.03
76.49
53.74
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.65
86.24
72.49
47.65
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
98.37
83.81
66.51
42.48
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
96.00
80.67
59.14
37.55
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
92.40
76.38
52.06
32.33
7.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.811%
0.00
88.04
72.37
46.89
27.16
8.00 %
99.77
0.23
84.91
65.00
41.03
22.98
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
92.88
82.24
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
90.75
80.11
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.63
87.88
77.24
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.89
85.20
74.65
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
96.85
82.61
68.92
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
93.62
80.67
60.50
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
90.19
77.89
53.56
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
87.05
74.19
47.36
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
98.70
83.90
66.60
42.65
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
97.04
81.13
58.74
38.02
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
94.63
77.24
51.62
33.02
7.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.811%
0.00
89.73
72.99
46.35
28.31
8.00 %
99.81
0.19
85.57
64.01
41.35
22.66
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
98.96
93.56
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
97.71
91.06
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
95.22
89.19
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
94.80
88.77
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
93.97
85.03
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.38
91.48
74.64
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.51
89.40
68.19
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
95.22
88.77
61.33
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
94.18
81.08
55.72
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
92.31
72.14
49.90
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.79
90.02
65.28
43.24
7.50 %
100.00
0.00
96.67
86.69
60.50
36.17
8.00 %
100.00
0.00
94.59
75.88
54.05
28.27
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at June 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio

For the US Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com