Last Update: 31 October 2024
Do you have in mind a 50 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 50-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.267% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 50 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 50 years in the 74.34% of cases. In the 46.43% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 50 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio
Over the last 50 years (last update: October 2024), the portfolio has returned 9.51% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -26.93%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.109%.
Timeframes ending at Oct 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
50 Years |
1 Nov 1974 |
31 Oct 2024 | 5.707 | 6.109 |
9.51 [ 5.60 ] |
-26.93 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 50-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.621 Jul 1901 |
2.783 Jul 1901 |
2.944 Jul 1901 |
3.106 Jul 1901 |
3.267 Jul 1901 |
|
95% |
3.060 |
3.198 |
3.322 |
3.440 |
3.557 |
||
90% |
3.209 |
3.327 |
3.444 |
3.564 |
3.689 |
||
80% |
3.376 |
3.513 |
3.643 |
3.769 |
3.905 |
||
50% Median WR |
3.921 |
4.050 |
4.185 |
4.323 |
4.453 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
8.305 Jun 1920 |
8.446 Jun 1920 |
8.586 Jun 1920 |
8.726 Jun 1920 |
8.866 Jun 1920 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.866 Feb 1937 |
3.010 Feb 1937 |
3.153 Mar 1937 |
3.296 Mar 1937 |
3.438 Mar 1937 |
|
95% |
3.161 |
3.286 |
3.397 |
3.502 |
3.607 |
||
90% |
3.257 |
3.376 |
3.491 |
3.605 |
3.708 |
||
80% |
3.390 |
3.520 |
3.652 |
3.782 |
3.903 |
||
50% Median WR |
3.847 |
3.990 |
4.133 |
4.283 |
4.420 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
6.762 Jun 1932 |
7.014 Jun 1932 |
7.266 Jun 1932 |
7.527 Jul 1932 |
7.791 Jul 1932 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio, over 50 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 50-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 50 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.267% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.84
|
99.20
|
96.39
|
3.50 % |
97.43
|
95% Succ. 3.557% |
2.57 |
92.94
|
87.73
|
80.67
|
73.62
|
4.00 % |
74.34
|
50% Succ. 4.453% |
25.66 |
66.64
|
58.54
|
52.29
|
46.43
|
4.50 % |
48.12
|
51.88 |
42.98
|
38.49
|
35.04
|
33.36
|
|
5.00 % |
34.16
|
65.84 |
32.48
|
30.47
|
26.46
|
22.21
|
|
5.50 % |
23.34
|
76.66 |
21.09
|
18.85
|
17.40
|
15.32
|
|
6.00 % |
16.12
|
83.88 |
15.48
|
13.95
|
13.15
|
12.03
|
|
6.50 % |
12.75
|
87.25 |
11.55
|
10.10
|
8.34
|
7.22
|
|
7.00 % |
8.34
|
91.66 |
7.14
|
6.26
|
4.17
|
3.13
|
|
7.50 % |
4.97
|
95.03 |
3.69
|
2.33
|
1.92
|
1.52
|
|
8.00 % |
1.60
|
98.40 |
1.36
|
0.96
|
0.72
|
0.40
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 50 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.438% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.00
|
3.50 % |
99.33
|
95% Succ. 3.607% |
0.67 |
95.01
|
89.18
|
81.53
|
73.88
|
4.00 % |
74.21
|
50% Succ. 4.420% |
25.79 |
67.39
|
57.90
|
49.42
|
42.26
|
4.50 % |
45.92
|
54.08 |
38.94
|
32.78
|
28.95
|
26.79
|
|
5.00 % |
28.29
|
71.71 |
25.62
|
22.63
|
18.64
|
13.98
|
|
5.50 % |
13.98
|
86.02 |
11.31
|
9.32
|
7.15
|
3.83
|
|
6.00 % |
5.66
|
94.34 |
4.66
|
1.83
|
0.83
|
0.50
|
|
6.50 % |
0.83
|
99.17 |
0.50
|
0.33
|
0.33
|
0.33
|
|
7.00 % |
0.33
|
99.67 |
0.33
|
0.33
|
0.17
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.33
|
99.67 |
0.33
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com