US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio: 40-year retirement

Last Update: 30 April 2023

Do you have in mind a 40 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 40-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.526% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 40 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 40 years in the 88.88% of cases. In the 46.55% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 40 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio

Over the last 40 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 8.55% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -26.93%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.375%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Apr 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
40 Years 1 May 1983
 30 Apr 2023 6.524 7.375 8.55
[ 5.55 ] 		-26.93
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 40-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		2.570
Mar 1937 		2.885
Mar 1937 		3.100
Jul 1901 		3.313
Jul 1901 		3.526
Jul 1901 		3.821
95% Succ. 		3.964
90% Succ. 		4.206
80% Succ. 		4.917
50% Succ.
Median 3.922
 4.145
 4.401
 4.661
 4.917
Average 4.461
 4.694
 4.926
 5.158
 5.391
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		8.995
Aug 1982 		9.190
Aug 1982 		9.392
Jul 1982 		9.598
Jul 1982 		9.804
Jul 1982
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 2.570
 2.932
 3.065
 3.306
 3.922
75% 2.885
 3.172
 3.299
 3.528
 4.145
50% 3.100
 3.417
 3.521
 3.758
 4.401
25% 3.313
 3.619
 3.746
 3.971
 4.661
0% 3.526
 3.821
 3.964
 4.206
 4.917
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		2.570
Mar 1937 		2.885
Mar 1937 		3.200
Mar 1937 		3.494
Dec 1968 		3.702
Nov 1965 		3.857
95% Succ. 		4.043
90% Succ. 		4.269
80% Succ. 		5.024
50% Succ.
Median 3.991
 4.230
 4.489
 4.754
 5.024
Average 4.445
 4.665
 4.886
 5.106
 5.327
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		8.995
Aug 1982 		9.190
Aug 1982 		9.392
Jul 1982 		9.598
Jul 1982 		9.804
Jul 1982
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 2.570
 3.001
 3.130
 3.367
 3.991
75% 2.885
 3.239
 3.349
 3.570
 4.230
50% 3.200
 3.480
 3.582
 3.794
 4.489
25% 3.494
 3.660
 3.818
 4.000
 4.754
0% 3.702
 3.857
 4.043
 4.269
 5.024
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio, over 40 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 40-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
40 Years
% Fail
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.11
92.74
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.526% 		0.00
100.00
99.04
91.03
81.32
71.09
4.00 %
88.88
80% Succ.
4.206% 		11.12
88.88
78.50
68.20
57.30
46.55
4.50 %
65.31
50% Succ.
4.917% 		34.69
65.31
56.12
47.29
40.77
35.73
5.00 %
47.81
52.19
47.81
41.66
37.06
31.21
26.76
5.50 %
38.32
61.68
38.32
32.39
27.06
23.65
21.65
6.00 %
28.17
71.83
28.17
22.91
20.39
19.20
18.01
6.50 %
20.16
79.84
20.16
18.53
16.98
14.83
13.19
7.00 %
15.79
84.21
15.79
13.86
12.08
10.90
9.04
7.50 %
11.71
88.29
11.71
9.79
8.01
7.19
4.89
8.00 %
7.49
92.51
7.49
5.93
4.52
3.04
1.93
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
40 Years
% Fail
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.31
95.01
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.702% 		0.00
100.00
99.86
93.20
83.22
72.95
4.00 %
90.98
90% Succ.
4.043% 		9.02
90.98
80.03
71.71
61.58
49.51
4.50 %
69.63
30.37
69.63
59.36
49.79
43.41
39.11
5.00 %
50.62
50% Succ.
5.024% 		49.38
50.62
43.69
38.14
32.32
28.02
5.50 %
38.83
61.17
38.83
31.07
26.77
22.61
19.69
6.00 %
25.10
74.90
25.10
20.39
17.61
15.81
14.15
6.50 %
16.50
83.50
16.50
14.56
12.21
10.54
9.43
7.00 %
11.10
88.90
11.10
9.43
7.63
6.93
5.27
7.50 %
7.07
92.93
7.07
5.41
4.30
3.74
3.05
8.00 %
3.61
96.39
3.61
3.19
2.64
2.22
1.94
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio

For the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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