Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 40 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 40 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio
Over the last 40 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 8.55% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -26.93%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.375%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
40 Years |
1 May 1983 |
30 Apr 2023 | 6.524 | 7.375 |
8.55 [ 5.55 ] |
-26.93 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 40-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
2.570 Mar 1937 |
2.885 Mar 1937 |
3.100 Jul 1901 |
3.313 Jul 1901 |
3.526 Jul 1901 |
3.821 95% Succ. |
3.964 90% Succ. |
4.206 80% Succ. |
4.917 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
3.922 |
4.145 |
4.401 |
4.661 |
4.917 | |||||
Average |
4.461 |
4.694 |
4.926 |
5.158 |
5.391 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
8.995 Aug 1982 |
9.190 Aug 1982 |
9.392 Jul 1982 |
9.598 Jul 1982 |
9.804 Jul 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
2.570 |
2.932 |
3.065 |
3.306 |
3.922 |
75% |
2.885 |
3.172 |
3.299 |
3.528 |
4.145 |
|
50% |
3.100 |
3.417 |
3.521 |
3.758 |
4.401 |
|
25% |
3.313 |
3.619 |
3.746 |
3.971 |
4.661 |
|
0% |
3.526 |
3.821 |
3.964 |
4.206 |
4.917 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
2.570 Mar 1937 |
2.885 Mar 1937 |
3.200 Mar 1937 |
3.494 Dec 1968 |
3.702 Nov 1965 |
3.857 95% Succ. |
4.043 90% Succ. |
4.269 80% Succ. |
5.024 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
3.991 |
4.230 |
4.489 |
4.754 |
5.024 | |||||
Average |
4.445 |
4.665 |
4.886 |
5.106 |
5.327 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
8.995 Aug 1982 |
9.190 Aug 1982 |
9.392 Jul 1982 |
9.598 Jul 1982 |
9.804 Jul 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
2.570 |
3.001 |
3.130 |
3.367 |
3.991 |
75% |
2.885 |
3.239 |
3.349 |
3.570 |
4.230 |
|
50% |
3.200 |
3.480 |
3.582 |
3.794 |
4.489 |
|
25% |
3.494 |
3.660 |
3.818 |
4.000 |
4.754 |
|
0% |
3.702 |
3.857 |
4.043 |
4.269 |
5.024 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio, over 40 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 40-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
40 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.11
|
92.74
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.526% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.04
|
91.03
|
81.32
|
71.09
|
4.00 % |
88.88
|
80% Succ. 4.206% |
11.12 |
88.88
|
78.50
|
68.20
|
57.30
|
46.55
|
4.50 % |
65.31
|
50% Succ. 4.917% |
34.69 |
65.31
|
56.12
|
47.29
|
40.77
|
35.73
|
5.00 % |
47.81
|
52.19 |
47.81
|
41.66
|
37.06
|
31.21
|
26.76
|
|
5.50 % |
38.32
|
61.68 |
38.32
|
32.39
|
27.06
|
23.65
|
21.65
|
|
6.00 % |
28.17
|
71.83 |
28.17
|
22.91
|
20.39
|
19.20
|
18.01
|
|
6.50 % |
20.16
|
79.84 |
20.16
|
18.53
|
16.98
|
14.83
|
13.19
|
|
7.00 % |
15.79
|
84.21 |
15.79
|
13.86
|
12.08
|
10.90
|
9.04
|
|
7.50 % |
11.71
|
88.29 |
11.71
|
9.79
|
8.01
|
7.19
|
4.89
|
|
8.00 % |
7.49
|
92.51 |
7.49
|
5.93
|
4.52
|
3.04
|
1.93
|
Withdrawal Rate |
40 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.31
|
95.01
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.702% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.86
|
93.20
|
83.22
|
72.95
|
4.00 % |
90.98
|
90% Succ. 4.043% |
9.02 |
90.98
|
80.03
|
71.71
|
61.58
|
49.51
|
4.50 % |
69.63
|
30.37 |
69.63
|
59.36
|
49.79
|
43.41
|
39.11
|
|
5.00 % |
50.62
|
50% Succ. 5.024% |
49.38 |
50.62
|
43.69
|
38.14
|
32.32
|
28.02
|
5.50 % |
38.83
|
61.17 |
38.83
|
31.07
|
26.77
|
22.61
|
19.69
|
|
6.00 % |
25.10
|
74.90 |
25.10
|
20.39
|
17.61
|
15.81
|
14.15
|
|
6.50 % |
16.50
|
83.50 |
16.50
|
14.56
|
12.21
|
10.54
|
9.43
|
|
7.00 % |
11.10
|
88.90 |
11.10
|
9.43
|
7.63
|
6.93
|
5.27
|
|
7.50 % |
7.07
|
92.93 |
7.07
|
5.41
|
4.30
|
3.74
|
3.05
|
|
8.00 % |
3.61
|
96.39 |
3.61
|
3.19
|
2.64
|
2.22
|
1.94
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com