Last Update: 30 November 2024
Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.952% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 99.87% of cases. In the 52.15% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 30 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio
Over the last 30 years (last update: November 2024), the portfolio has returned 7.99% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -26.93%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.519%.
Timeframes ending at Nov 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
30 Years |
1 Dec 1994 |
30 Nov 2024 | 5.938 | 7.519 |
7.99 [ 5.34 ] |
-26.93 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
1.778 Jun 1902 |
2.402 Jun 1902 |
3.025 Jun 1902 |
3.556 Jul 1901 |
3.952 Jul 1901 |
|
95% |
2.764 |
3.190 |
3.574 |
3.888 |
4.229 |
||
90% |
2.921 |
3.355 |
3.739 |
4.097 |
4.444 |
||
80% |
3.179 |
3.591 |
4.013 |
4.426 |
4.773 |
||
50% Median WR |
4.083 |
4.589 |
5.042 |
5.500 |
5.994 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
9.401 Jul 1982 |
9.750 Jul 1982 |
10.098 Jul 1982 |
10.446 Jul 1982 |
10.795 Jul 1982 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.654 Feb 1965 |
3.014 Feb 1965 |
3.373 Feb 1965 |
3.713 Nov 1965 |
4.022 Dec 1968 |
|
95% |
2.962 |
3.338 |
3.665 |
3.950 |
4.243 |
||
90% |
3.123 |
3.468 |
3.814 |
4.148 |
4.488 |
||
80% |
3.372 |
3.743 |
4.127 |
4.508 |
4.894 |
||
50% Median WR |
4.310 |
4.744 |
5.227 |
5.720 |
6.113 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
9.401 Jul 1982 |
9.750 Jul 1982 |
10.098 Jul 1982 |
10.446 Jul 1982 |
10.795 Jul 1982 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
4.872 Nov 1993 |
5.338 Nov 1993 |
5.681 Jan 1977 |
5.948 Jan 1977 |
6.214 Jan 1977 |
|
95% |
5.178 |
5.552 |
5.864 |
6.184 |
6.454 |
||
90% |
5.296 |
5.633 |
6.002 |
6.391 |
6.728 |
||
80% |
5.535 |
5.879 |
6.203 |
6.545 |
6.903 |
||
50% Median WR |
6.075 |
6.382 |
6.731 |
7.092 |
7.432 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
9.401 Jul 1982 |
9.750 Jul 1982 |
10.098 Jul 1982 |
10.446 Jul 1982 |
10.795 Jul 1982 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.60
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.87
|
97.92
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.59
|
86.69
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.952% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
96.57
|
83.67
|
65.86
|
4.00 % |
99.87
|
95% Succ. 4.229% |
0.13 |
92.81
|
81.05
|
61.69
|
52.15
|
4.50 % |
87.50
|
80% Succ. 4.773% |
12.50 |
76.14
|
59.61
|
51.08
|
43.41
|
5.00 % |
71.71
|
28.29 |
59.14
|
50.81
|
42.27
|
37.77
|
|
5.50 % |
58.67
|
50% Succ. 5.994% |
41.33 |
49.93
|
41.80
|
37.77
|
30.17
|
6.00 % |
49.87
|
50.13 |
41.87
|
35.62
|
27.42
|
21.77
|
|
6.50 % |
41.60
|
58.40 |
33.60
|
25.40
|
19.02
|
14.52
|
|
7.00 % |
32.26
|
67.74 |
22.78
|
17.20
|
13.64
|
11.36
|
|
7.50 % |
20.90
|
79.10 |
15.93
|
12.90
|
10.15
|
8.06
|
|
8.00 % |
14.58
|
85.42 |
11.90
|
8.74
|
6.72
|
4.23
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
93.46
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.10
|
88.82
|
73.25
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.022% |
0.00 |
93.82
|
85.73
|
70.04
|
58.62
|
4.50 % |
89.42
|
80% Succ. 4.894% |
10.58 |
80.62
|
67.06
|
57.19
|
45.18
|
5.00 % |
76.46
|
23.54 |
64.09
|
56.12
|
43.40
|
37.10
|
|
5.50 % |
61.47
|
38.53 |
53.98
|
42.81
|
37.22
|
28.89
|
|
6.00 % |
52.68
|
50% Succ. 6.113% |
47.32 |
43.40
|
34.24
|
24.73
|
18.79
|
6.50 % |
43.52
|
56.48 |
31.63
|
22.35
|
15.10
|
10.46
|
|
7.00 % |
29.49
|
70.51 |
18.79
|
12.72
|
9.27
|
7.61
|
|
7.50 % |
16.17
|
83.83 |
11.30
|
8.80
|
6.18
|
4.28
|
|
8.00 % |
9.63
|
90.37 |
7.85
|
4.88
|
3.45
|
2.38
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.76
|
|
5.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.51
|
81.33
|
|
6.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 6.214% |
0.00 |
99.59
|
90.46
|
69.29
|
54.36
|
6.50 % |
94.61
|
90% Succ. 6.728% |
5.39 |
81.74
|
63.49
|
45.64
|
34.44
|
7.00 % |
75.10
|
50% Succ. 7.432% |
24.90 |
53.94
|
40.25
|
31.12
|
25.31
|
7.50 % |
46.47
|
53.53 |
36.93
|
29.46
|
20.75
|
14.11
|
|
8.00 % |
31.95
|
68.05 |
26.14
|
16.18
|
11.20
|
7.47
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com