Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 6.84% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -26.93%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.626%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 May 2003 |
30 Apr 2023 | 4.275 | 7.626 |
6.84 [ 4.20 ] |
-26.93 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jun 1900 |
0.715 Jul 1901 |
2.225 Jul 1901 |
3.736 Jul 1901 |
4.811 Dec 1968 |
5.234 95% Succ. |
5.475 90% Succ. |
5.955 80% Succ. |
7.619 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
4.436 |
5.234 |
6.010 |
6.799 |
7.619 | |||||
Average |
4.646 |
5.426 |
6.209 |
6.993 |
7.776 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
10.608 Jul 1982 |
11.204 Jul 1982 |
11.799 Jul 1982 |
12.395 Jul 1982 |
12.991 Jul 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
1.275 |
1.788 |
2.732 |
4.436 |
75% |
0.715 |
2.333 |
2.809 |
3.592 |
5.234 |
|
50% |
2.225 |
3.394 |
3.706 |
4.301 |
6.010 |
|
25% |
3.736 |
4.363 |
4.642 |
5.150 |
6.799 |
|
0% |
4.811 |
5.234 |
5.475 |
5.955 |
7.619 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.368 Oct 1961 |
1.746 Apr 1962 |
3.092 Apr 1962 |
4.091 Nov 1965 |
4.811 Dec 1968 |
5.186 95% Succ. |
5.541 90% Succ. |
6.144 80% Succ. |
7.582 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
4.542 |
5.309 |
6.019 |
6.776 |
7.582 | |||||
Average |
4.627 |
5.407 |
6.186 |
6.966 |
7.745 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
10.608 Jul 1982 |
11.204 Jul 1982 |
11.799 Jul 1982 |
12.395 Jul 1982 |
12.991 Jul 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.368 |
1.615 |
2.099 |
2.884 |
4.542 |
75% |
1.746 |
2.616 |
3.023 |
3.735 |
5.309 |
|
50% |
3.092 |
3.577 |
3.954 |
4.552 |
6.019 |
|
25% |
4.091 |
4.433 |
4.720 |
5.364 |
6.776 |
|
0% |
4.811 |
5.186 |
5.541 |
6.144 |
7.582 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
2.663 Apr 2000 |
3.461 Apr 2000 |
4.260 Apr 2000 |
5.059 Apr 2000 |
5.714 May 1973 |
6.090 95% Succ. |
6.370 90% Succ. |
7.141 80% Succ. |
8.628 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
5.644 |
6.404 |
7.156 |
7.885 |
8.628 | |||||
Average |
5.879 |
6.554 |
7.228 |
7.903 |
8.577 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
10.608 Jul 1982 |
11.204 Jul 1982 |
11.799 Jul 1982 |
12.395 Jul 1982 |
12.991 Jul 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
2.663 |
3.263 |
3.643 |
4.275 |
5.644 |
75% |
3.461 |
3.986 |
4.234 |
5.049 |
6.404 |
|
50% |
4.260 |
4.695 |
4.995 |
5.767 |
7.156 |
|
25% |
5.059 |
5.383 |
5.705 |
6.464 |
7.885 |
|
0% |
5.714 |
6.090 |
6.370 |
7.141 |
8.628 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.73
|
87.60
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.87
|
93.39
|
83.13
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.24
|
86.97
|
75.77
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
93.90
|
81.37
|
65.58
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.87
|
85.84
|
70.93
|
56.95
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.811% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
92.70
|
76.97
|
61.67
|
49.21
|
5.00 % |
98.68
|
95% Succ. 5.234% |
1.32 |
98.68
|
82.38
|
66.90
|
53.68
|
43.36
|
5.50 % |
89.49
|
80% Succ. 5.955% |
10.51 |
89.49
|
72.31
|
57.84
|
45.94
|
35.62
|
6.00 % |
78.85
|
21.15 |
78.85
|
64.63
|
50.22
|
39.96
|
26.31
|
|
6.50 % |
70.74
|
29.26 |
70.74
|
56.26
|
42.61
|
30.71
|
20.33
|
|
7.00 % |
62.43
|
37.57 |
62.43
|
46.00
|
36.06
|
22.40
|
15.29
|
|
7.50 % |
52.23
|
50% Succ. 7.619% |
47.77 |
52.23
|
38.89
|
26.24
|
17.37
|
11.64
|
8.00 % |
42.61
|
57.39 |
42.61
|
32.10
|
19.26
|
12.59
|
8.81
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.27
|
90.95
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
95.94
|
86.26
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
90.43
|
77.00
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
95.73
|
84.29
|
65.97
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
89.18
|
72.84
|
57.54
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.811% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
93.76
|
80.65
|
62.33
|
50.36
|
5.00 % |
98.34
|
95% Succ. 5.186% |
1.66 |
98.34
|
85.54
|
69.30
|
53.59
|
44.43
|
5.50 % |
90.32
|
90% Succ. 5.541% |
9.68 |
90.32
|
76.38
|
57.34
|
46.72
|
34.65
|
6.00 % |
82.93
|
80% Succ. 6.144% |
17.07 |
82.93
|
66.08
|
50.47
|
40.58
|
23.10
|
6.50 % |
73.36
|
26.64 |
73.36
|
55.57
|
43.29
|
29.03
|
17.07
|
|
7.00 % |
62.64
|
37.36 |
62.64
|
45.89
|
36.00
|
19.46
|
11.76
|
|
7.50 % |
51.20
|
50% Succ. 7.582% |
48.80 |
51.20
|
39.44
|
23.73
|
14.15
|
8.12
|
8.00 % |
42.46
|
57.54 |
42.46
|
31.43
|
16.34
|
9.26
|
5.31
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.17
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
91.41
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.46
|
84.49
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.45
|
88.64
|
77.01
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
89.47
|
80.33
|
71.47
|
|
5.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.714% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
92.52
|
81.99
|
74.79
|
55.40
|
6.00 % |
97.23
|
95% Succ. 6.090% |
2.77 |
97.23
|
86.15
|
77.84
|
64.54
|
39.06
|
6.50 % |
88.37
|
11.63 |
88.37
|
79.50
|
67.59
|
45.71
|
29.09
|
|
7.00 % |
81.44
|
80% Succ. 7.141% |
18.56 |
81.44
|
71.47
|
55.68
|
32.41
|
24.10
|
7.50 % |
74.52
|
25.48 |
74.52
|
61.50
|
37.95
|
25.76
|
19.39
|
|
8.00 % |
64.27
|
35.73 |
64.27
|
46.81
|
27.15
|
20.22
|
13.57
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 50/50 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com