Last Update: 30 September 2024
Do you have in mind a 50 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 50-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.114% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 50 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 50 years in the 54.49% of cases. In the 32.74% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 50 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio
Over the last 50 years (last update: September 2024), the portfolio has returned 9.12% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -21.12%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.027%.
Timeframes ending at Sep 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
50 Years |
1 Oct 1974 |
30 Sep 2024 | 5.550 | 6.027 |
9.12 [ 5.21 ] |
-21.12 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Sep 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 50-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.397 Jul 1901 |
2.585 Jul 1901 |
2.770 Feb 1937 |
2.942 Feb 1937 |
3.114 Mar 1937 |
|
95% |
2.694 |
2.865 |
3.030 |
3.193 |
3.368 |
||
90% |
2.844 |
3.016 |
3.185 |
3.329 |
3.475 |
||
80% |
3.042 |
3.193 |
3.341 |
3.486 |
3.629 |
||
50% Median WR |
3.495 |
3.634 |
3.787 |
3.947 |
4.090 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
7.557 Jun 1920 |
7.736 Jun 1920 |
7.915 Jun 1920 |
8.094 Jun 1920 |
8.273 Jun 1920 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.424 Feb 1937 |
2.597 Feb 1937 |
2.770 Feb 1937 |
2.942 Feb 1937 |
3.114 Mar 1937 |
|
95% |
2.693 |
2.861 |
3.038 |
3.207 |
3.381 |
||
90% |
2.855 |
3.038 |
3.185 |
3.323 |
3.468 |
||
80% |
3.044 |
3.188 |
3.333 |
3.482 |
3.607 |
||
50% Median WR |
3.413 |
3.562 |
3.723 |
3.870 |
4.018 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
5.550 Oct 1974 |
5.669 Oct 1974 |
5.788 Oct 1974 |
6.027 Jun 1932 |
6.337 Jul 1932 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio, over 50 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 50-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 50 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.04
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.114% |
0.00 |
99.44
|
96.39
|
90.53
|
83.31
|
3.50 % |
88.76
|
80% Succ. 3.629% |
11.24 |
79.29
|
68.70
|
57.30
|
49.68
|
4.00 % |
54.49
|
50% Succ. 4.090% |
45.51 |
47.83
|
41.09
|
36.60
|
32.74
|
4.50 % |
36.28
|
63.72 |
31.62
|
27.53
|
24.96
|
21.99
|
|
5.00 % |
23.68
|
76.32 |
21.11
|
18.54
|
15.89
|
14.21
|
|
5.50 % |
16.85
|
83.15 |
15.01
|
13.56
|
12.52
|
11.32
|
|
6.00 % |
13.08
|
86.92 |
11.16
|
9.39
|
8.35
|
6.82
|
|
6.50 % |
8.59
|
91.41 |
7.54
|
6.26
|
5.22
|
3.85
|
|
7.00 % |
5.54
|
94.46 |
4.82
|
3.13
|
2.09
|
0.80
|
|
7.50 % |
2.57
|
97.43 |
1.12
|
0.64
|
0.24
|
0.16
|
|
8.00 % |
0.32
|
99.68 |
0.16
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 50 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.17
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.114% |
0.00 |
99.17
|
96.17
|
91.01
|
83.86
|
3.50 % |
87.35
|
80% Succ. 3.607% |
12.65 |
78.20
|
68.22
|
55.57
|
43.26
|
4.00 % |
51.41
|
50% Succ. 4.018% |
48.59 |
40.77
|
33.28
|
27.29
|
23.63
|
4.50 % |
28.62
|
71.38 |
21.80
|
14.98
|
11.31
|
7.99
|
|
5.00 % |
9.32
|
90.68 |
7.65
|
5.99
|
4.16
|
1.83
|
|
5.50 % |
5.49
|
94.51 |
3.83
|
1.16
|
0.17
|
0.17
|
|
6.00 % |
0.83
|
99.17 |
0.33
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com