Last Update: 30 September 2024
Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.851% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 99.06% of cases. In the 41.32% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 30 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio
Over the last 30 years (last update: September 2024), the portfolio has returned 7.24% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -21.12%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.983%.
Timeframes ending at Sep 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
30 Years |
1 Oct 1994 |
30 Sep 2024 | 5.174 | 6.983 |
7.24 [ 4.61 ] |
-21.12 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Sep 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
1.544 Jul 1890 |
2.379 Jun 1902 |
2.969 Jun 1902 |
3.429 May 1901 |
3.851 Jul 1901 |
|
95% |
2.369 |
2.920 |
3.381 |
3.769 |
4.124 |
||
90% |
2.536 |
3.050 |
3.514 |
3.923 |
4.296 |
||
80% |
2.800 |
3.245 |
3.704 |
4.144 |
4.529 |
||
50% Median WR |
3.541 |
3.991 |
4.503 |
5.075 |
5.641 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
8.889 Jul 1982 |
9.250 Jul 1982 |
9.611 Jul 1982 |
9.972 Jul 1982 |
10.333 Jul 1982 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.116 Feb 1946 |
2.681 Feb 1946 |
3.246 Feb 1946 |
3.622 May 1965 |
3.962 Nov 1965 |
|
95% |
2.593 |
3.034 |
3.435 |
3.822 |
4.164 |
||
90% |
2.708 |
3.152 |
3.561 |
3.939 |
4.334 |
||
80% |
2.898 |
3.332 |
3.778 |
4.199 |
4.594 |
||
50% Median WR |
3.652 |
4.073 |
4.577 |
5.114 |
5.684 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
8.889 Jul 1982 |
9.250 Jul 1982 |
9.611 Jul 1982 |
9.972 Jul 1982 |
10.333 Jul 1982 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
4.324 Nov 1993 |
4.844 Nov 1993 |
5.363 Nov 1993 |
5.667 Jan 1977 |
5.954 Jan 1977 |
|
95% |
4.670 |
5.148 |
5.538 |
5.883 |
6.183 |
||
90% |
4.920 |
5.263 |
5.625 |
6.042 |
6.405 |
||
80% |
5.126 |
5.496 |
5.851 |
6.223 |
6.608 |
||
50% Median WR |
5.643 |
6.008 |
6.383 |
6.735 |
7.103 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
8.889 Jul 1982 |
9.250 Jul 1982 |
9.611 Jul 1982 |
9.972 Jul 1982 |
10.333 Jul 1982 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.39
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.80
|
91.12
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.87
|
92.06
|
70.79
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.851% |
0.00 |
99.87
|
90.98
|
67.09
|
50.94
|
4.00 % |
99.06
|
95% Succ. 4.124% |
0.94 |
85.94
|
64.13
|
49.87
|
41.32
|
4.50 % |
81.43
|
80% Succ. 4.529% |
18.57 |
62.31
|
50.07
|
40.51
|
36.81
|
5.00 % |
61.44
|
38.56 |
51.21
|
40.65
|
36.68
|
30.89
|
|
5.50 % |
52.42
|
50% Succ. 5.641% |
47.58 |
40.71
|
36.20
|
29.61
|
22.01
|
6.00 % |
41.52
|
58.48 |
34.93
|
27.86
|
20.05
|
14.47
|
|
6.50 % |
33.51
|
66.49 |
25.91
|
18.44
|
13.86
|
11.51
|
|
7.00 % |
24.36
|
75.64 |
17.29
|
13.26
|
11.04
|
8.75
|
|
7.50 % |
16.22
|
83.78 |
12.85
|
10.36
|
7.81
|
4.85
|
|
8.00 % |
12.11
|
87.89 |
9.08
|
6.73
|
3.97
|
1.88
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.79
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
95.96
|
74.32
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.962% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
93.34
|
72.18
|
54.58
|
4.00 % |
99.41
|
95% Succ. 4.164% |
0.59 |
87.16
|
68.49
|
52.68
|
40.90
|
4.50 % |
83.35
|
80% Succ. 4.594% |
16.65 |
66.35
|
52.44
|
39.71
|
34.72
|
5.00 % |
64.92
|
35.08 |
53.75
|
40.31
|
34.48
|
29.01
|
|
5.50 % |
52.32
|
50% Succ. 5.684% |
47.68 |
40.19
|
33.89
|
27.35
|
18.91
|
6.00 % |
40.67
|
59.33 |
32.22
|
24.49
|
16.17
|
10.70
|
|
6.50 % |
30.20
|
69.80 |
21.52
|
13.67
|
9.75
|
7.97
|
|
7.00 % |
19.50
|
80.50 |
12.01
|
9.04
|
7.49
|
4.64
|
|
7.50 % |
10.82
|
89.18 |
8.80
|
6.54
|
4.04
|
2.62
|
|
8.00 % |
8.09
|
91.91 |
5.11
|
3.21
|
2.38
|
1.43
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.34
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.34
|
84.65
|
|
5.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.954% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.10
|
79.25
|
57.26
|
6.00 % |
99.59
|
95% Succ. 6.183% |
0.41 |
92.12
|
70.54
|
50.62
|
36.51
|
6.50 % |
85.48
|
80% Succ. 6.608% |
14.52 |
61.83
|
43.57
|
33.20
|
27.80
|
7.00 % |
55.60
|
50% Succ. 7.103% |
44.40 |
39.42
|
30.71
|
26.14
|
16.18
|
7.50 % |
36.10
|
63.90 |
29.88
|
22.82
|
14.11
|
9.13
|
|
8.00 % |
27.39
|
72.61 |
17.84
|
11.20
|
8.30
|
4.98
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com