US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio: 30-year retirement

Last Update: 31 March 2025

Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.851% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 99.06% of cases. In the 41.55% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 30 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio

Over the last 30 years (last update: March 2025), the portfolio has returned 6.97% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -21.12%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.837%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Mar 2025
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
30 Years 1 Apr 1995
 31 Mar 2025 4.927 6.837 6.97
[ 4.34 ] 		-21.12
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at March 2025

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Mar 2025)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Mar 2025
Period: Apr 1925 - Mar 2025
Period: Apr 1975 - Mar 2025
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		1.544
Jul 1890 		2.379
Jun 1902 		2.969
Jun 1902 		3.429
May 1901 		3.851
Jul 1901
95%
 2.369
 2.920
 3.381
 3.769
 4.124
90%
 2.539
 3.050
 3.516
 3.926
 4.300
80%
 2.803
 3.245
 3.705
 4.145
 4.531
50%
Median WR 		3.552
 4.004
 4.511
 5.079
 5.659
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		8.889
Jul 1982 		9.250
Jul 1982 		9.611
Jul 1982 		9.972
Jul 1982 		10.333
Jul 1982
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		2.116
Feb 1946 		2.681
Feb 1946 		3.246
Feb 1946 		3.622
May 1965 		3.962
Nov 1965
95%
 2.593
 3.034
 3.435
 3.822
 4.164
90%
 2.708
 3.152
 3.561
 3.939
 4.334
80%
 2.898
 3.332
 3.778
 4.199
 4.594
50%
Median WR 		3.652
 4.073
 4.577
 5.114
 5.684
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		8.889
Jul 1982 		9.250
Jul 1982 		9.611
Jul 1982 		9.972
Jul 1982 		10.333
Jul 1982
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		4.324
Nov 1993 		4.844
Nov 1993 		5.363
Nov 1993 		5.667
Jan 1977 		5.954
Jan 1977
95%
 4.670
 5.148
 5.538
 5.883
 6.183
90%
 4.920
 5.263
 5.625
 6.044
 6.410
80%
 5.107
 5.495
 5.871
 6.241
 6.646
50%
Median WR 		5.639
 6.005
 6.380
 6.735
 7.115
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		8.889
Jul 1982 		9.250
Jul 1982 		9.611
Jul 1982 		9.972
Jul 1982 		10.333
Jul 1982
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at March 2025

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Mar 2025
Period: Apr 1925 - Mar 2025
Period: Apr 1975 - Mar 2025
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.40
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.80
91.15
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.87
92.09
70.91
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.851% 		0.00
99.87
91.02
67.23
51.14
4.00 %
99.06
95% Succ.
4.124% 		0.94
85.99
64.28
50.07
41.55
4.50 %
81.50
80% Succ.
4.531% 		18.50
62.47
50.27
40.75
37.06
5.00 %
61.60
38.40
51.41
40.88
36.93
31.10
5.50 %
52.61
50% Succ.
5.659% 		47.39
40.95
36.46
29.76
21.92
6.00 %
41.76
58.24
35.19
28.02
19.97
14.41
6.50 %
33.78
66.22
26.07
18.36
13.81
11.46
7.00 %
24.46
75.54
17.23
13.20
10.99
8.71
7.50 %
16.15
83.85
12.80
10.32
7.77
4.83
8.00 %
12.06
87.94
9.05
6.70
3.95
1.88
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
96.79
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
95.96
74.32
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.962% 		0.00
100.00
93.34
72.18
54.58
4.00 %
99.41
95% Succ.
4.164% 		0.59
87.16
68.49
52.68
40.90
4.50 %
83.35
80% Succ.
4.594% 		16.65
66.35
52.44
39.71
34.72
5.00 %
64.92
35.08
53.75
40.31
34.48
28.89
5.50 %
52.32
50% Succ.
5.684% 		47.68
40.19
33.89
27.11
18.43
6.00 %
40.67
59.33
32.22
24.26
15.81
10.70
6.50 %
30.20
69.80
21.28
13.32
9.75
7.97
7.00 %
19.14
80.86
11.77
9.04
7.49
4.64
7.50 %
10.58
89.42
8.80
6.54
4.04
2.62
8.00 %
8.09
91.91
5.11
3.21
2.38
1.43
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
98.34
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
98.34
84.23
5.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
5.954% 		0.00
100.00
97.10
78.84
56.02
6.00 %
99.59
95% Succ.
6.183% 		0.41
92.12
70.54
50.21
36.51
6.50 %
86.31
80% Succ.
6.646% 		13.69
62.66
43.57
33.20
27.80
7.00 %
56.43
50% Succ.
7.115% 		43.57
39.42
30.71
26.14
16.18
7.50 %
36.10
63.90
29.88
22.82
14.11
9.13
8.00 %
27.39
72.61
17.84
11.20
8.30
4.98
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at March 2025

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio

For the US Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com