Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the US Treasuries (7-10y) asset class?
According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 70-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.222% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 70 years.
Considering the last 70 years (last update: April 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 2.26%.
The last 70 years of the US Treasuries (7-10y) asset class
Over the last 70 years (last update: April 2023), the asset class has returned 5.79% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -21.22%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
70 Years |
1 May 1953 |
30 Apr 2023 | 1.757 | 2.260 |
5.79 [ 2.17 ] |
-21.22 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Treasuries (7-10y) page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Treasuries (7-10y) asset class?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Mar 1911 |
0.293 Oct 1911 |
0.768 May 1911 |
1.119 Feb 1941 |
1.222 Feb 1941 |
1.368 95% Succ. |
1.425 90% Succ. |
1.657 80% Succ. |
1.989 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.276 |
1.481 |
1.687 |
1.814 |
1.989 | |||||
Average |
1.513 |
1.720 |
1.927 |
2.135 |
2.343 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
5.116 Feb 1871 |
5.223 Feb 1871 |
5.331 Feb 1871 |
5.438 Feb 1871 |
5.545 Feb 1871 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.438 |
0.497 |
0.623 |
1.276 |
75% |
0.293 |
0.758 |
0.817 |
0.914 |
1.481 |
|
50% |
0.768 |
1.050 |
1.097 |
1.151 |
1.687 |
|
25% |
1.119 |
1.249 |
1.305 |
1.373 |
1.814 |
|
0% |
1.222 |
1.368 |
1.425 |
1.657 |
1.989 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.809 Apr 1941 |
0.914 Feb 1941 |
1.016 Feb 1941 |
1.119 Feb 1941 |
1.222 Feb 1941 |
1.268 95% Succ. |
1.323 90% Succ. |
1.402 80% Succ. |
1.733 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.241 |
1.356 |
1.484 |
1.611 |
1.733 | |||||
Average |
1.287 |
1.408 |
1.528 |
1.649 |
1.770 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
1.940 Nov 1923 |
2.102 Nov 1923 |
2.264 Nov 1923 |
2.427 Nov 1923 |
2.589 Nov 1923 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.809 |
0.851 |
0.879 |
0.934 |
1.241 |
75% |
0.914 |
0.956 |
0.992 |
1.055 |
1.356 |
|
50% |
1.016 |
1.061 |
1.107 |
1.173 |
1.484 |
|
25% |
1.119 |
1.162 |
1.219 |
1.291 |
1.611 |
|
0% |
1.222 |
1.268 |
1.323 |
1.402 |
1.733 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Treasuries (7-10y) asset class, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
49.65
|
50.35 |
49.65
|
44.19
|
30.33
|
23.56
|
19.92
|
|
2.50 % |
28.11
|
71.89 |
28.11
|
21.44
|
19.62
|
17.19
|
15.98
|
|
3.00 % |
19.01
|
80.99 |
19.01
|
16.99
|
15.67
|
13.04
|
9.61
|
|
3.50 % |
15.47
|
84.53 |
15.47
|
11.63
|
9.40
|
8.70
|
7.58
|
|
4.00 % |
8.90
|
91.10 |
8.90
|
7.79
|
6.67
|
5.46
|
5.06
|
|
4.50 % |
5.56
|
94.44 |
5.56
|
4.75
|
4.15
|
3.94
|
3.34
|
|
5.00 % |
3.24
|
96.76 |
3.24
|
2.33
|
1.72
|
0.81
|
0.30
|
|
5.50 % |
0.30
|
99.70 |
0.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
32.69
|
67.31 |
32.69
|
26.32
|
11.63
|
3.05
|
0.00
|
|
2.50 % |
3.05
|
96.95 |
3.05
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
3.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
3.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
US Treasuries (7-10y) Asset Class
For the US Treasuries (7-10y) Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com