Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 40 years retirement, investing in the US Treasuries (7-10y) asset class?
According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 40-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.737% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 40 years.
Considering the last 40 years (last update: April 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.611%.
The last 40 years of the US Treasuries (7-10y) asset class
Over the last 40 years (last update: April 2023), the asset class has returned 6.74% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -21.22%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
40 Years |
1 May 1983 |
30 Apr 2023 | 5.115 | 6.611 |
6.74 [ 3.78 ] |
-21.22 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Treasuries (7-10y) page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Treasuries (7-10y) asset class?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 40-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1933 |
0.000 May 1938 |
0.000 Apr 1940 |
0.748 Sep 1941 |
1.737 May 1941 |
1.926 95% Succ. |
2.198 90% Succ. |
2.560 80% Succ. |
3.106 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.547 |
2.014 |
2.440 |
2.759 |
3.106 | |||||
Average |
1.916 |
2.291 |
2.713 |
3.158 |
3.606 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
8.193 Oct 1981 |
8.463 Oct 1981 |
8.734 Oct 1981 |
9.004 Oct 1981 |
9.274 Oct 1981 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.828 |
1.547 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.228 |
1.335 |
2.014 |
|
50% |
0.000 |
0.604 |
0.875 |
1.810 |
2.440 |
|
25% |
0.748 |
1.268 |
1.539 |
2.201 |
2.759 |
|
0% |
1.737 |
1.926 |
2.198 |
2.560 |
3.106 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Jan 1933 |
0.000 May 1938 |
0.000 Apr 1940 |
0.748 Sep 1941 |
1.737 May 1941 |
1.859 95% Succ. |
1.931 90% Succ. |
2.212 80% Succ. |
2.970 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.603 |
2.038 |
2.399 |
2.729 |
2.970 | |||||
Average |
1.772 |
2.064 |
2.443 |
2.867 |
3.294 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
8.193 Oct 1981 |
8.463 Oct 1981 |
8.734 Oct 1981 |
9.004 Oct 1981 |
9.274 Oct 1981 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
1.603 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.375 |
2.038 |
|
50% |
0.000 |
0.378 |
0.623 |
1.001 |
2.399 |
|
25% |
0.748 |
1.120 |
1.293 |
1.601 |
2.729 |
|
0% |
1.737 |
1.859 |
1.931 |
2.212 |
2.970 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Treasuries (7-10y) asset class, over 40 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 40-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
40 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
93.11
|
90% Succ. 2.198% |
6.89 |
93.11
|
84.95
|
64.94
|
50.26
|
37.66
|
2.50 % |
81.62
|
80% Succ. 2.560% |
18.38 |
81.62
|
61.01
|
46.63
|
31.80
|
24.24
|
3.00 % |
54.86
|
50% Succ. 3.106% |
45.14 |
54.86
|
40.40
|
30.39
|
22.46
|
16.60
|
3.50 % |
38.70
|
61.30 |
38.70
|
29.06
|
22.24
|
16.98
|
14.23
|
|
4.00 % |
28.17
|
71.83 |
28.17
|
22.09
|
16.68
|
11.71
|
10.23
|
|
4.50 % |
20.68
|
79.32 |
20.68
|
15.57
|
11.42
|
9.64
|
8.30
|
|
5.00 % |
17.05
|
82.95 |
17.05
|
11.64
|
9.49
|
7.64
|
6.67
|
|
5.50 % |
11.49
|
88.51 |
11.49
|
8.97
|
7.19
|
6.23
|
4.97
|
|
6.00 % |
9.04
|
90.96 |
9.04
|
6.97
|
5.56
|
3.93
|
2.59
|
|
6.50 % |
6.23
|
93.77 |
6.23
|
4.74
|
3.48
|
2.15
|
1.70
|
|
7.00 % |
3.78
|
96.22 |
3.78
|
2.59
|
1.70
|
1.33
|
0.96
|
|
7.50 % |
1.78
|
98.22 |
1.78
|
1.33
|
1.19
|
0.67
|
0.30
|
|
8.00 % |
1.26
|
98.74 |
1.26
|
0.82
|
0.30
|
0.15
|
0.15
|
Withdrawal Rate |
40 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
87.10
|
80% Succ. 2.212% |
12.90 |
87.10
|
71.84
|
61.58
|
50.62
|
39.81
|
2.50 % |
70.04
|
50% Succ. 2.970% |
29.96 |
70.04
|
57.70
|
44.38
|
27.88
|
23.86
|
3.00 % |
46.74
|
53.26 |
46.74
|
33.98
|
25.24
|
19.00
|
16.64
|
|
3.50 % |
32.18
|
67.82 |
32.18
|
22.33
|
15.67
|
15.12
|
14.01
|
|
4.00 % |
20.39
|
79.61 |
20.39
|
14.70
|
13.18
|
9.02
|
8.32
|
|
4.50 % |
11.65
|
88.35 |
11.65
|
8.88
|
8.32
|
7.49
|
6.80
|
|
5.00 % |
8.32
|
91.68 |
8.32
|
7.49
|
6.80
|
6.24
|
5.96
|
|
5.50 % |
6.66
|
93.34 |
6.66
|
6.10
|
5.96
|
5.69
|
4.58
|
|
6.00 % |
5.96
|
94.04 |
5.96
|
5.96
|
4.85
|
4.16
|
3.74
|
|
6.50 % |
5.41
|
94.59 |
5.41
|
4.16
|
3.88
|
3.61
|
3.19
|
|
7.00 % |
3.88
|
96.12 |
3.88
|
3.61
|
3.19
|
2.50
|
1.80
|
|
7.50 % |
3.19
|
96.81 |
3.19
|
2.50
|
2.22
|
1.25
|
0.55
|
|
8.00 % |
2.36
|
97.64 |
2.36
|
1.53
|
0.55
|
0.28
|
0.28
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
US Treasuries (7-10y) Asset Class
For the US Treasuries (7-10y) Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com