Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Treasuries (7-10y) asset class?
According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.585% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.
Considering the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.373%.
The last 20 years of the US Treasuries (7-10y) asset class
Over the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), the asset class has returned 3.57% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -21.22%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 May 2003 |
30 Apr 2023 | 1.160 | 6.373 |
3.57 [ 1.01 ] |
-21.22 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Treasuries (7-10y) page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Treasuries (7-10y) asset class?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1897 |
0.000 Feb 1898 |
0.289 Jul 1900 |
2.260 Feb 1941 |
3.585 May 1941 |
4.021 95% Succ. |
4.269 90% Succ. |
4.555 80% Succ. |
5.970 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
2.005 |
2.964 |
3.894 |
4.946 |
5.970 | |||||
Average |
2.572 |
3.335 |
4.330 |
5.366 |
6.402 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
10.145 Oct 1981 |
10.762 Oct 1981 |
11.379 Oct 1981 |
11.996 Oct 1981 |
12.613 Oct 1981 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
2.005 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.194 |
0.642 |
2.964 |
|
50% |
0.289 |
1.230 |
1.561 |
1.976 |
3.894 |
|
25% |
2.260 |
2.712 |
2.953 |
3.306 |
4.946 |
|
0% |
3.585 |
4.021 |
4.269 |
4.555 |
5.970 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Apr 1932 |
0.000 Dec 1936 |
0.842 Aug 1939 |
2.260 Feb 1941 |
3.585 May 1941 |
3.909 95% Succ. |
4.211 90% Succ. |
4.577 80% Succ. |
5.481 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.694 |
2.556 |
3.422 |
4.364 |
5.481 | |||||
Average |
2.278 |
3.046 |
4.085 |
5.152 |
6.220 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
10.145 Oct 1981 |
10.762 Oct 1981 |
11.379 Oct 1981 |
11.996 Oct 1981 |
12.613 Oct 1981 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
1.694 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.134 |
0.546 |
2.556 |
|
50% |
0.842 |
1.252 |
1.528 |
1.934 |
3.422 |
|
25% |
2.260 |
2.666 |
2.863 |
3.281 |
4.364 |
|
0% |
3.585 |
3.909 |
4.211 |
4.577 |
5.481 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.927 Oct 2002 |
2.266 Oct 2002 |
3.606 Oct 2002 |
4.295 May 1973 |
4.929 May 1973 |
5.756 95% Succ. |
5.979 90% Succ. |
6.650 80% Succ. |
7.643 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
4.420 |
5.213 |
6.003 |
6.833 |
7.643 | |||||
Average |
4.739 |
5.515 |
6.292 |
7.068 |
7.844 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
10.145 Oct 1981 |
10.762 Oct 1981 |
11.379 Oct 1981 |
11.996 Oct 1981 |
12.613 Oct 1981 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.927 |
2.568 |
2.843 |
3.348 |
4.420 |
75% |
2.266 |
3.384 |
3.729 |
4.119 |
5.213 |
|
50% |
3.606 |
4.022 |
4.570 |
4.855 |
6.003 |
|
25% |
4.295 |
5.011 |
5.290 |
5.709 |
6.833 |
|
0% |
4.929 |
5.756 |
5.979 |
6.650 |
7.643 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Treasuries (7-10y) asset class, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
79.42
|
61.11
|
50.09
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.67
|
71.37
|
55.95
|
44.37
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
88.36
|
62.05
|
49.78
|
39.58
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.585% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
75.27
|
53.12
|
45.00
|
35.24
|
4.00 % |
95.72
|
95% Succ. 4.021% |
4.28 |
95.72
|
61.99
|
49.65
|
38.77
|
31.09
|
4.50 % |
82.88
|
80% Succ. 4.555% |
17.12 |
82.88
|
52.86
|
46.00
|
34.24
|
25.55
|
5.00 % |
65.07
|
34.93 |
65.07
|
49.84
|
38.07
|
30.02
|
20.26
|
|
5.50 % |
54.06
|
50% Succ. 5.970% |
45.94 |
54.06
|
45.44
|
33.10
|
23.29
|
15.86
|
6.00 % |
49.47
|
50.53 |
49.47
|
39.58
|
27.82
|
17.68
|
11.96
|
|
6.50 % |
45.88
|
54.12 |
45.88
|
32.28
|
20.58
|
13.40
|
8.94
|
|
7.00 % |
40.65
|
59.35 |
40.65
|
26.81
|
15.92
|
9.94
|
5.79
|
|
7.50 % |
31.91
|
68.09 |
31.91
|
18.50
|
11.58
|
6.67
|
2.89
|
|
8.00 % |
24.86
|
75.14 |
24.86
|
13.22
|
7.80
|
3.90
|
1.51
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
77.84
|
55.15
|
46.20
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
96.67
|
68.37
|
50.68
|
41.73
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
88.03
|
56.82
|
45.99
|
37.88
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.585% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
74.51
|
49.32
|
41.94
|
32.67
|
4.00 % |
93.03
|
90% Succ. 4.211% |
6.97 |
93.03
|
59.31
|
45.58
|
36.94
|
27.78
|
4.50 % |
84.18
|
80% Succ. 4.577% |
15.82 |
84.18
|
48.70
|
42.87
|
31.43
|
19.67
|
5.00 % |
65.56
|
50% Succ. 5.481% |
34.44 |
65.56
|
45.89
|
35.38
|
26.33
|
13.63
|
5.50 % |
49.74
|
50.26 |
49.74
|
40.69
|
30.49
|
17.17
|
8.84
|
|
6.00 % |
44.64
|
55.36 |
44.64
|
37.36
|
23.00
|
10.72
|
7.18
|
|
6.50 % |
40.69
|
59.31 |
40.69
|
29.45
|
14.05
|
7.80
|
6.14
|
|
7.00 % |
37.77
|
62.23 |
37.77
|
21.54
|
8.95
|
6.66
|
5.20
|
|
7.50 % |
29.14
|
70.86 |
29.14
|
12.07
|
6.97
|
5.72
|
3.54
|
|
8.00 % |
19.35
|
80.65 |
19.35
|
7.49
|
5.93
|
4.16
|
2.50
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.95
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.34
|
95.84
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.51
|
87.81
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
93.07
|
75.07
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
95.84
|
83.93
|
63.16
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.929% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.34
|
90.30
|
71.47
|
49.03
|
5.00 % |
99.72
|
0.28 |
99.72
|
95.57
|
77.29
|
59.28
|
36.29
|
|
5.50 % |
96.68
|
95% Succ. 5.756% |
3.32 |
96.68
|
83.10
|
68.14
|
43.49
|
23.55
|
6.00 % |
88.92
|
11.08 |
88.92
|
75.90
|
50.42
|
28.53
|
19.11
|
|
6.50 % |
81.44
|
80% Succ. 6.650% |
18.56 |
81.44
|
63.16
|
36.01
|
20.78
|
16.34
|
7.00 % |
75.35
|
24.65 |
75.35
|
45.15
|
23.82
|
17.73
|
13.85
|
|
7.50 % |
54.85
|
50% Succ. 7.643% |
45.15 |
54.85
|
31.58
|
18.56
|
15.24
|
9.42
|
8.00 % |
38.78
|
61.22 |
38.78
|
19.94
|
15.79
|
11.08
|
6.65
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
US Treasuries (7-10y) Asset Class
For the US Treasuries (7-10y) Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com