Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries asset class?
According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 70-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.25% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 70 years.
Considering the last 70 years (last update: April 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 2.532%.
The last 70 years of the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries asset class
Over the last 70 years (last update: April 2023), the asset class has returned 5.12% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -8.52%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
70 Years |
1 May 1953 |
30 Apr 2023 | 1.653 | 2.532 |
5.12 [ 1.52 ] |
-8.52 Apr 1971 - Jul 1971 |
For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries asset class?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.345 May 1911 |
0.691 May 1911 |
0.951 Jun 1933 |
1.100 Jun 1933 |
1.250 Jun 1933 |
1.313 95% Succ. |
1.359 90% Succ. |
1.729 80% Succ. |
2.170 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.311 |
1.508 |
1.709 |
1.930 |
2.170 | |||||
Average |
1.739 |
1.955 |
2.170 |
2.386 |
2.601 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
6.672 Apr 1872 |
6.784 Apr 1872 |
6.896 Apr 1872 |
7.008 Apr 1872 |
7.120 Apr 1872 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.345 |
0.681 |
0.709 |
0.789 |
1.311 |
75% |
0.691 |
0.844 |
0.879 |
1.041 |
1.508 |
|
50% |
0.951 |
1.010 |
1.060 |
1.279 |
1.709 |
|
25% |
1.100 |
1.159 |
1.210 |
1.482 |
1.930 |
|
0% |
1.250 |
1.313 |
1.359 |
1.729 |
2.170 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.653 Jun 1933 |
0.802 Jun 1933 |
0.951 Jun 1933 |
1.100 Jun 1933 |
1.250 Jun 1933 |
1.280 95% Succ. |
1.307 90% Succ. |
1.324 80% Succ. |
1.659 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.012 |
1.174 |
1.337 |
1.498 |
1.659 | |||||
Average |
1.116 |
1.282 |
1.448 |
1.615 |
1.781 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
1.717 Jun 1951 |
1.904 Dec 1951 |
2.095 Dec 1951 |
2.312 May 1953 |
2.532 May 1953 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.653 |
0.677 |
0.694 |
0.720 |
1.012 |
75% |
0.802 |
0.829 |
0.847 |
0.871 |
1.174 |
|
50% |
0.951 |
0.981 |
1.001 |
1.022 |
1.337 |
|
25% |
1.100 |
1.132 |
1.153 |
1.172 |
1.498 |
|
0% |
1.250 |
1.280 |
1.307 |
1.324 |
1.659 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries asset class, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
67.24
|
50% Succ. 2.170% |
32.76 |
67.24
|
44.59
|
34.07
|
28.11
|
23.46
|
2.50 % |
31.85
|
68.15 |
31.85
|
27.81
|
23.66
|
19.41
|
17.09
|
|
3.00 % |
24.27
|
75.73 |
24.27
|
20.02
|
17.19
|
16.68
|
15.17
|
|
3.50 % |
17.29
|
82.71 |
17.29
|
16.58
|
14.76
|
13.14
|
10.92
|
|
4.00 % |
14.66
|
85.34 |
14.66
|
12.74
|
10.92
|
8.39
|
7.99
|
|
4.50 % |
10.62
|
89.38 |
10.62
|
7.99
|
7.48
|
7.28
|
6.47
|
|
5.00 % |
7.18
|
92.82 |
7.18
|
6.47
|
5.86
|
5.66
|
5.16
|
|
5.50 % |
5.26
|
94.74 |
5.26
|
4.85
|
4.65
|
4.35
|
4.15
|
|
6.00 % |
4.15
|
95.85 |
4.15
|
3.84
|
3.64
|
3.34
|
2.73
|
|
6.50 % |
2.43
|
97.57 |
2.43
|
2.02
|
1.52
|
1.21
|
0.71
|
|
7.00 % |
0.51
|
99.49 |
0.51
|
0.10
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
41.27
|
58.73 |
41.27
|
22.44
|
7.76
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
2.50 % |
1.11
|
98.89 |
1.11
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
3.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
3.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries Asset Class
For the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com