Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 60 years retirement, investing in the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries asset class?
According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 60-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.347% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 60 years.
Considering the last 60 years (last update: April 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 2.71%.
The last 60 years of the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries asset class
Over the last 60 years (last update: April 2023), the asset class has returned 5.41% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -8.52%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
60 Years |
1 May 1963 |
30 Apr 2023 | 1.571 | 2.710 |
5.41 [ 1.46 ] |
-8.52 Apr 1971 - Jul 1971 |
For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries asset class?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 60-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.444 Jun 1933 |
0.670 Jun 1933 |
0.896 Jun 1933 |
1.122 Jun 1933 |
1.347 Jun 1939 |
1.409 95% Succ. |
1.498 90% Succ. |
2.019 80% Succ. |
2.465 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.171 |
1.510 |
1.828 |
2.154 |
2.465 | |||||
Average |
1.792 |
2.054 |
2.316 |
2.578 |
2.839 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
6.975 Feb 1873 |
7.089 Feb 1873 |
7.203 Feb 1873 |
7.317 Feb 1873 |
7.431 Feb 1873 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.444 |
0.563 |
0.632 |
0.836 |
1.171 |
75% |
0.670 |
0.795 |
0.871 |
1.153 |
1.510 |
|
50% |
0.896 |
1.003 |
1.089 |
1.393 |
1.828 |
|
25% |
1.122 |
1.209 |
1.300 |
1.689 |
2.154 |
|
0% |
1.347 |
1.409 |
1.498 |
2.019 |
2.465 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.444 Jun 1933 |
0.670 Jun 1933 |
0.896 Jun 1933 |
1.122 Jun 1933 |
1.347 Jun 1939 |
1.392 95% Succ. |
1.405 90% Succ. |
1.448 80% Succ. |
2.248 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.140 |
1.439 |
1.720 |
1.981 |
2.248 | |||||
Average |
1.243 |
1.464 |
1.685 |
1.906 |
2.127 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
2.075 Aug 1957 |
2.291 Aug 1957 |
2.509 Nov 1957 |
2.729 Nov 1957 |
2.949 Nov 1957 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.444 |
0.510 |
0.572 |
0.651 |
1.140 |
75% |
0.670 |
0.732 |
0.785 |
0.852 |
1.439 |
|
50% |
0.896 |
0.956 |
0.998 |
1.052 |
1.720 |
|
25% |
1.122 |
1.175 |
1.203 |
1.249 |
1.981 |
|
0% |
1.347 |
1.392 |
1.405 |
1.448 |
2.248 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries asset class, over 60 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 60-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
60 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
80.61
|
80% Succ. 2.019% |
19.39 |
80.61
|
64.56
|
43.19
|
35.44
|
23.08
|
2.50 % |
47.61
|
52.39 |
47.61
|
33.09
|
23.62
|
19.93
|
18.49
|
|
3.00 % |
25.43
|
74.57 |
25.43
|
22.45
|
19.03
|
16.41
|
15.51
|
|
3.50 % |
20.29
|
79.71 |
20.29
|
16.23
|
15.24
|
14.97
|
13.98
|
|
4.00 % |
14.97
|
85.03 |
14.97
|
14.16
|
12.98
|
12.08
|
11.00
|
|
4.50 % |
12.26
|
87.74 |
12.26
|
10.73
|
9.65
|
8.30
|
6.94
|
|
5.00 % |
8.48
|
91.52 |
8.48
|
6.67
|
6.40
|
6.04
|
5.50
|
|
5.50 % |
5.77
|
94.23 |
5.77
|
5.14
|
4.78
|
4.60
|
4.24
|
|
6.00 % |
4.24
|
95.76 |
4.24
|
4.15
|
3.88
|
3.43
|
3.16
|
|
6.50 % |
3.16
|
96.84 |
3.16
|
2.89
|
2.43
|
1.98
|
1.35
|
|
7.00 % |
1.35
|
98.65 |
1.35
|
1.08
|
0.63
|
0.27
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
60 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
59.46
|
50% Succ. 2.248% |
40.54 |
59.46
|
49.27
|
34.30
|
25.78
|
1.87
|
2.50 % |
32.85
|
67.15 |
32.85
|
12.89
|
0.62
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
3.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
3.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries Asset Class
For the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com