Last Update: 30 April 2025

Do you have in mind a 50 years retirement, investing in the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries asset class?

According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 50-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.485% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 50 years.

Considering the last 50 years (last update: April 2025), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 3.72%.

The last 50 years of the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries asset class

Over the last 50 years (last update: April 2025), the asset class has returned 5.5% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -5.36%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the investment didn't run out of money during retirement. The capital went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Apr 2025
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
50 Years 1 May 1975
 30 Apr 2025 2.169 3.720 5.50
[ 1.77 ] 		-5.36
Jun 2021 - Oct 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2025

For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2025)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries asset class?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 50-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2025
Period: May 1925 - Apr 2025
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Dec 1930 		0.203
Jun 1933 		0.644
Jun 1933 		1.085
Jun 1933 		1.485
Jun 1939
95%
 0.124
 0.525
 0.878
 1.236
 1.571
90%
 0.344
 0.672
 0.998
 1.394
 1.804
80%
 0.725
 1.120
 1.550
 1.998
 2.390
50%
Median WR 		1.620
 1.925
 2.249
 2.604
 2.927
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Dec 1930 		0.203
Jun 1933 		0.644
Jun 1933 		1.085
Jun 1933 		1.485
Jun 1939
95%
 0.000
 0.294
 0.773
 1.184
 1.549
90%
 0.100
 0.512
 0.876
 1.233
 1.569
80%
 0.334
 0.661
 0.992
 1.364
 1.757
50%
Median WR 		1.620
 1.905
 2.141
 2.406
 2.827
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2025

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries asset class, over 50 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 50-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2025
Period: May 1925 - Apr 2025
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 50 Years
% Fail
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
85.55
80% Succ.
2.390% 		14.45
79.81
59.78
48.36
32.64
2.50 %
77.25
50% Succ.
2.927% 		22.75
55.31
36.47
22.67
20.27
3.00 %
44.21
55.79
25.70
21.31
19.47
17.08
3.50 %
23.54
76.46
19.87
16.60
13.73
12.21
4.00 %
16.52
83.48
13.73
12.37
11.65
10.22
4.50 %
12.45
87.55
11.33
9.98
8.46
7.26
5.00 %
9.58
90.42
8.38
6.54
5.43
4.55
5.50 %
6.07
93.93
5.59
4.63
4.15
3.75
6.00 %
4.79
95.21
4.15
3.75
3.43
2.63
6.50 %
3.75
96.25
3.43
2.79
2.15
1.28
7.00 %
2.79
97.21
2.23
1.28
0.88
0.24
7.50 %
1.28
98.72
0.80
0.24
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.16
99.84
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 50 Years
% Fail
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
69.88
30.12
66.06
54.74
47.59
19.63
2.50 %
63.73
50% Succ.
2.827% 		36.27
48.75
24.13
0.83
0.00
3.00 %
32.11
67.89
3.49
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.50 %
2.16
97.84
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2025

Related Pages

Asset Class Main Page:
US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries Asset Class

For the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com