Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries asset class?
According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.462% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.
Considering the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 4.943%.
The last 20 years of the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries asset class
Over the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), the asset class has returned 1.63% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -5.36%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 May 2003 |
30 Apr 2023 | 0.000 | 4.943 |
1.63 [ -0.89 ] |
-5.36 Jun 2021 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries asset class?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Sep 1898 |
0.000 Apr 1932 |
0.618 Jul 1933 |
2.102 Aug 1939 |
3.462 Feb 1941 |
3.979 95% Succ. |
4.137 90% Succ. |
5.137 80% Succ. |
5.858 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.804 |
2.741 |
3.724 |
4.755 |
5.858 | |||||
Average |
2.360 |
3.247 |
4.260 |
5.306 |
6.353 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
9.544 Apr 1872 |
10.089 Apr 1872 |
10.699 Feb 1873 |
11.342 Feb 1873 |
11.985 Feb 1873 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.479 |
1.804 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.567 |
1.722 |
2.741 |
|
50% |
0.618 |
1.036 |
1.801 |
2.923 |
3.724 |
|
25% |
2.102 |
2.495 |
2.926 |
4.086 |
4.755 |
|
0% |
3.462 |
3.979 |
4.137 |
5.137 |
5.858 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Aug 1930 |
0.000 Apr 1932 |
0.618 Jul 1933 |
2.102 Aug 1939 |
3.462 Feb 1941 |
3.814 95% Succ. |
4.004 90% Succ. |
4.981 80% Succ. |
5.724 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.261 |
2.389 |
3.524 |
4.565 |
5.724 | |||||
Average |
1.594 |
2.481 |
3.561 |
4.696 |
5.831 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
6.200 Sep 1981 |
7.009 Sep 1981 |
7.817 Sep 1981 |
8.625 Sep 1981 |
9.434 Sep 1981 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
1.261 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.764 |
2.389 |
|
50% |
0.618 |
0.985 |
1.066 |
2.149 |
3.524 |
|
25% |
2.102 |
2.429 |
2.534 |
3.584 |
4.565 |
|
0% |
3.462 |
3.814 |
4.004 |
4.981 |
5.724 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Nov 2001 |
0.467 Mar 2003 |
1.974 Mar 2003 |
3.460 Jan 2003 |
4.943 May 2003 |
5.259 95% Succ. |
5.675 90% Succ. |
5.929 80% Succ. |
6.546 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
2.957 |
3.892 |
4.788 |
5.644 |
6.546 | |||||
Average |
2.748 |
3.718 |
4.723 |
5.729 |
6.734 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
6.200 Sep 1981 |
7.009 Sep 1981 |
7.817 Sep 1981 |
8.625 Sep 1981 |
9.434 Sep 1981 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.688 |
1.303 |
2.957 |
75% |
0.467 |
1.224 |
1.955 |
2.522 |
3.892 |
|
50% |
1.974 |
2.554 |
3.220 |
3.741 |
4.788 |
|
25% |
3.460 |
3.893 |
4.461 |
4.822 |
5.644 |
|
0% |
4.943 |
5.259 |
5.675 |
5.929 |
6.546 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries asset class, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
88.23
|
72.18
|
45.63
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.78
|
86.53
|
57.27
|
38.26
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.462% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
89.55
|
78.16
|
43.42
|
32.60
|
3.50 % |
99.50
|
95% Succ. 3.979% |
0.50 |
99.50
|
88.29
|
57.90
|
37.82
|
24.04
|
4.00 % |
94.15
|
90% Succ. 4.137% |
5.85 |
94.15
|
83.83
|
42.79
|
32.28
|
20.01
|
4.50 % |
89.49
|
10.51 |
89.49
|
58.78
|
37.89
|
23.47
|
16.80
|
|
5.00 % |
83.26
|
80% Succ. 5.137% |
16.74 |
83.26
|
44.81
|
31.03
|
19.45
|
13.34
|
5.50 % |
63.88
|
50% Succ. 5.858% |
36.12 |
63.88
|
38.51
|
23.35
|
14.92
|
10.57
|
6.00 % |
47.07
|
52.93 |
47.07
|
30.40
|
18.19
|
12.08
|
7.80
|
|
6.50 % |
38.58
|
61.42 |
38.58
|
24.04
|
13.34
|
9.25
|
5.98
|
|
7.00 % |
31.97
|
68.03 |
31.97
|
16.74
|
11.52
|
6.86
|
4.53
|
|
7.50 % |
24.73
|
75.27 |
24.73
|
12.65
|
7.99
|
4.78
|
3.52
|
|
8.00 % |
14.85
|
85.15 |
14.85
|
10.01
|
6.23
|
3.59
|
2.58
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
80.54
|
63.79
|
32.88
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
91.36
|
78.56
|
47.45
|
26.85
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.462% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
82.73
|
71.18
|
32.99
|
19.35
|
3.50 % |
99.17
|
95% Succ. 3.814% |
0.83 |
99.17
|
80.65
|
50.68
|
26.33
|
9.89
|
4.00 % |
90.32
|
90% Succ. 4.004% |
9.68 |
90.32
|
76.48
|
33.61
|
19.46
|
7.80
|
4.50 % |
82.62
|
80% Succ. 4.981% |
17.38 |
82.62
|
54.32
|
26.64
|
9.26
|
6.35
|
5.00 % |
79.50
|
20.50 |
79.50
|
37.15
|
17.59
|
7.39
|
2.91
|
|
5.50 % |
58.38
|
50% Succ. 5.724% |
41.62 |
58.38
|
27.99
|
9.26
|
4.37
|
1.77
|
6.00 % |
39.85
|
60.15 |
39.85
|
17.17
|
6.66
|
2.60
|
0.31
|
|
6.50 % |
28.51
|
71.49 |
28.51
|
10.09
|
3.12
|
0.83
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
19.98
|
80.02 |
19.98
|
6.14
|
2.50
|
0.10
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
11.76
|
88.24 |
11.76
|
2.81
|
0.31
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
4.58
|
95.42 |
4.58
|
1.56
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.61
|
88.37
|
65.93
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
95.57
|
80.06
|
60.66
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
92.52
|
69.53
|
47.09
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.06
|
81.99
|
58.45
|
26.32
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.46
|
73.41
|
42.66
|
20.78
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.943% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
88.64
|
57.89
|
24.65
|
16.90
|
5.00 % |
97.78
|
95% Succ. 5.259% |
2.22 |
97.78
|
75.90
|
36.01
|
19.67
|
7.76
|
5.50 % |
92.52
|
90% Succ. 5.675% |
7.48 |
92.52
|
55.12
|
22.71
|
11.63
|
4.71
|
6.00 % |
78.67
|
21.33 |
78.67
|
32.96
|
17.73
|
6.93
|
0.83
|
|
6.50 % |
52.35
|
50% Succ. 6.546% |
47.65 |
52.35
|
21.33
|
8.31
|
2.22
|
0.00
|
7.00 % |
31.30
|
68.70 |
31.30
|
16.34
|
6.65
|
0.28
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
20.22
|
79.78 |
20.22
|
7.48
|
0.83
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
12.19
|
87.81 |
12.19
|
4.16
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries Asset Class
For the US Short Term (1-3y) Treasuries Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com