Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries asset class?
According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 70-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.081% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 70 years.
Considering the last 70 years (last update: April 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 1.932%.
The last 70 years of the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries asset class
Over the last 70 years (last update: April 2023), the asset class has returned 5.82% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -41.64%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
70 Years |
1 May 1953 |
30 Apr 2023 | 1.513 | 1.932 |
5.82 [ 2.21 ] |
-41.64 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries asset class?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Nov 1910 |
0.073 Oct 1911 |
0.704 Oct 1911 |
0.977 Feb 1941 |
1.081 Jan 1941 |
1.228 95% Succ. |
1.282 90% Succ. |
1.598 80% Succ. |
2.069 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.303 |
1.401 |
1.560 |
1.790 |
2.069 | |||||
Average |
1.659 |
1.859 |
2.066 |
2.272 |
2.478 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
6.346 Mar 1873 |
6.450 Mar 1873 |
6.554 Mar 1873 |
6.657 Mar 1873 |
6.761 Mar 1873 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.396 |
0.585 |
0.767 |
1.303 |
75% |
0.073 |
0.781 |
0.883 |
0.976 |
1.401 |
|
50% |
0.704 |
0.984 |
1.073 |
1.177 |
1.560 |
|
25% |
0.977 |
1.139 |
1.192 |
1.460 |
1.790 |
|
0% |
1.081 |
1.228 |
1.282 |
1.598 |
2.069 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.663 Feb 1941 |
0.768 Feb 1941 |
0.872 Feb 1941 |
0.977 Feb 1941 |
1.081 Jan 1941 |
1.138 95% Succ. |
1.202 90% Succ. |
1.257 80% Succ. |
1.530 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.162 |
1.251 |
1.339 |
1.449 |
1.530 | |||||
Average |
1.179 |
1.291 |
1.403 |
1.515 |
1.627 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
1.944 Nov 1923 |
2.111 Nov 1923 |
2.277 Nov 1923 |
2.444 Nov 1923 |
2.611 Nov 1923 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.663 |
0.743 |
0.788 |
0.864 |
1.162 |
75% |
0.768 |
0.836 |
0.899 |
0.973 |
1.251 |
|
50% |
0.872 |
0.940 |
1.003 |
1.073 |
1.339 |
|
25% |
0.977 |
1.040 |
1.112 |
1.159 |
1.449 |
|
0% |
1.081 |
1.138 |
1.202 |
1.257 |
1.530 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries asset class, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
59.76
|
50% Succ. 2.069% |
40.24 |
59.76
|
40.04
|
36.30
|
28.41
|
22.35
|
2.50 % |
33.77
|
66.23 |
33.77
|
26.39
|
21.74
|
19.11
|
18.10
|
|
3.00 % |
20.73
|
79.27 |
20.73
|
18.71
|
17.80
|
15.77
|
13.25
|
|
3.50 % |
16.78
|
83.22 |
16.78
|
14.16
|
11.12
|
9.20
|
8.80
|
|
4.00 % |
9.61
|
90.39 |
9.61
|
8.70
|
8.19
|
7.99
|
7.79
|
|
4.50 % |
7.79
|
92.21 |
7.79
|
7.38
|
7.08
|
6.47
|
6.37
|
|
5.00 % |
6.37
|
93.63 |
6.37
|
6.07
|
5.97
|
5.66
|
5.36
|
|
5.50 % |
5.36
|
94.64 |
5.36
|
5.26
|
5.26
|
4.75
|
4.15
|
|
6.00 % |
3.84
|
96.16 |
3.84
|
3.34
|
2.73
|
2.53
|
1.82
|
|
6.50 % |
1.11
|
98.89 |
1.11
|
0.51
|
0.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
22.71
|
77.29 |
22.71
|
12.74
|
9.97
|
3.05
|
0.00
|
|
2.50 % |
3.32
|
96.68 |
3.32
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
3.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
3.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries Asset Class
For the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com