US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries: 70-year retirement

Last Update: 30 April 2023

Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries asset class?

According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 70-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.081% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 70 years.

Considering the last 70 years (last update: April 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 1.932%.

The last 70 years of the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries asset class

Over the last 70 years (last update: April 2023), the asset class has returned 5.82% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -41.64%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the investment didn't run out of money during retirement. The capital went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Apr 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
70 Years 1 May 1953
 30 Apr 2023 1.513 1.932 5.82
[ 2.21 ] 		-41.64
Aug 2020 - Oct 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2023

For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries asset class?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Nov 1910 		0.073
Oct 1911 		0.704
Oct 1911 		0.977
Feb 1941 		1.081
Jan 1941 		1.228
95% Succ. 		1.282
90% Succ. 		1.598
80% Succ. 		2.069
50% Succ.
Median 1.303
 1.401
 1.560
 1.790
 2.069
Average 1.659
 1.859
 2.066
 2.272
 2.478
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		6.346
Mar 1873 		6.450
Mar 1873 		6.554
Mar 1873 		6.657
Mar 1873 		6.761
Mar 1873
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.396
 0.585
 0.767
 1.303
75% 0.073
 0.781
 0.883
 0.976
 1.401
50% 0.704
 0.984
 1.073
 1.177
 1.560
25% 0.977
 1.139
 1.192
 1.460
 1.790
0% 1.081
 1.228
 1.282
 1.598
 2.069
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.663
Feb 1941 		0.768
Feb 1941 		0.872
Feb 1941 		0.977
Feb 1941 		1.081
Jan 1941 		1.138
95% Succ. 		1.202
90% Succ. 		1.257
80% Succ. 		1.530
50% Succ.
Median 1.162
 1.251
 1.339
 1.449
 1.530
Average 1.179
 1.291
 1.403
 1.515
 1.627
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		1.944
Nov 1923 		2.111
Nov 1923 		2.277
Nov 1923 		2.444
Nov 1923 		2.611
Nov 1923
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.663
 0.743
 0.788
 0.864
 1.162
75% 0.768
 0.836
 0.899
 0.973
 1.251
50% 0.872
 0.940
 1.003
 1.073
 1.339
25% 0.977
 1.040
 1.112
 1.159
 1.449
0% 1.081
 1.138
 1.202
 1.257
 1.530
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries asset class, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
70 Years
% Fail
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
59.76
50% Succ.
2.069% 		40.24
59.76
40.04
36.30
28.41
22.35
2.50 %
33.77
66.23
33.77
26.39
21.74
19.11
18.10
3.00 %
20.73
79.27
20.73
18.71
17.80
15.77
13.25
3.50 %
16.78
83.22
16.78
14.16
11.12
9.20
8.80
4.00 %
9.61
90.39
9.61
8.70
8.19
7.99
7.79
4.50 %
7.79
92.21
7.79
7.38
7.08
6.47
6.37
5.00 %
6.37
93.63
6.37
6.07
5.97
5.66
5.36
5.50 %
5.36
94.64
5.36
5.26
5.26
4.75
4.15
6.00 %
3.84
96.16
3.84
3.34
2.73
2.53
1.82
6.50 %
1.11
98.89
1.11
0.51
0.30
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
70 Years
% Fail
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
22.71
77.29
22.71
12.74
9.97
3.05
0.00
2.50 %
3.32
96.68
3.32
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Related Pages

Asset Class Main Page:
US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries Asset Class

For the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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