Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries asset class?
According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.622% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.
Considering the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.016%.
The last 20 years of the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries asset class
Over the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), the asset class has returned 4.23% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -41.64%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 May 2003 |
30 Apr 2023 | 1.963 | 7.016 |
4.23 [ 1.65 ] |
-41.64 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries asset class?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Apr 1897 |
0.000 Oct 1898 |
0.000 Sep 1961 |
1.995 Oct 1961 |
3.622 Feb 1941 |
3.929 95% Succ. |
4.171 90% Succ. |
4.621 80% Succ. |
5.816 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
2.348 |
3.137 |
4.111 |
5.139 |
5.816 | |||||
Average |
2.919 |
3.591 |
4.544 |
5.561 |
6.578 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
12.013 Oct 1981 |
12.576 Oct 1981 |
13.140 Oct 1981 |
13.703 Oct 1981 |
14.267 Oct 1981 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
2.348 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.466 |
3.137 |
|
50% |
0.000 |
1.051 |
1.335 |
1.839 |
4.111 |
|
25% |
1.995 |
2.510 |
2.733 |
3.257 |
5.139 |
|
0% |
3.622 |
3.929 |
4.171 |
4.621 |
5.816 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Sep 1932 |
0.000 Sep 1938 |
0.000 Sep 1961 |
1.995 Oct 1961 |
3.622 Feb 1941 |
3.812 95% Succ. |
3.960 90% Succ. |
4.296 80% Succ. |
5.387 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
2.027 |
2.777 |
3.631 |
4.375 |
5.387 | |||||
Average |
2.619 |
3.206 |
4.180 |
5.247 |
6.315 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
12.013 Oct 1981 |
12.576 Oct 1981 |
13.140 Oct 1981 |
13.703 Oct 1981 |
14.267 Oct 1981 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
2.027 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.102 |
2.777 |
|
50% |
0.000 |
0.894 |
1.159 |
1.472 |
3.631 |
|
25% |
1.995 |
2.392 |
2.554 |
2.901 |
4.375 |
|
0% |
3.622 |
3.812 |
3.960 |
4.296 |
5.387 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
1.702 Mar 2003 |
3.026 Mar 2003 |
3.631 May 1973 |
4.227 May 1973 |
4.822 May 1973 |
5.737 95% Succ. |
5.843 90% Succ. |
7.012 80% Succ. |
8.099 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
5.218 |
5.918 |
6.656 |
7.383 |
8.099 | |||||
Average |
5.534 |
6.227 |
6.920 |
7.613 |
8.306 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
12.013 Oct 1981 |
12.576 Oct 1981 |
13.140 Oct 1981 |
13.703 Oct 1981 |
14.267 Oct 1981 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
1.702 |
2.995 |
3.411 |
3.811 |
5.218 |
75% |
3.026 |
3.578 |
4.020 |
4.543 |
5.918 |
|
50% |
3.631 |
4.467 |
4.620 |
5.309 |
6.656 |
|
25% |
4.227 |
5.139 |
5.253 |
6.056 |
7.383 |
|
0% |
4.822 |
5.737 |
5.843 |
7.012 |
8.099 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries asset class, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.94
|
77.91
|
62.93
|
54.69
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
95.22
|
67.59
|
58.28
|
47.33
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
85.97
|
62.93
|
52.17
|
42.73
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.622% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
72.50
|
56.51
|
47.14
|
38.39
|
4.00 % |
92.76
|
90% Succ. 4.171% |
7.24 |
92.76
|
62.05
|
50.66
|
42.92
|
35.24
|
4.50 % |
82.69
|
80% Succ. 4.621% |
17.31 |
82.69
|
52.80
|
47.26
|
36.82
|
32.16
|
5.00 % |
60.67
|
39.33 |
60.67
|
50.66
|
41.60
|
34.49
|
26.94
|
|
5.50 % |
52.99
|
50% Succ. 5.816% |
47.01 |
52.99
|
46.38
|
36.94
|
30.02
|
18.31
|
6.00 % |
48.52
|
51.48 |
48.52
|
41.54
|
32.54
|
23.03
|
13.03
|
|
6.50 % |
46.44
|
53.56 |
46.44
|
37.63
|
27.44
|
15.29
|
11.33
|
|
7.00 % |
42.23
|
57.77 |
42.23
|
30.21
|
18.88
|
11.64
|
10.13
|
|
7.50 % |
36.56
|
63.44 |
36.56
|
24.73
|
12.84
|
10.26
|
8.87
|
|
8.00 % |
29.20
|
70.80 |
29.20
|
15.23
|
10.64
|
9.19
|
7.17
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.90
|
67.95
|
54.42
|
50.26
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
92.09
|
57.54
|
52.97
|
45.47
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
77.73
|
54.63
|
47.97
|
41.94
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.622% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
61.08
|
50.99
|
45.27
|
37.67
|
4.00 % |
88.03
|
80% Succ. 4.296% |
11.97 |
88.03
|
54.42
|
47.45
|
42.04
|
34.13
|
4.50 % |
72.11
|
27.89 |
72.11
|
49.12
|
44.85
|
35.48
|
29.97
|
|
5.00 % |
54.73
|
50% Succ. 5.387% |
45.27 |
54.73
|
47.45
|
39.85
|
33.19
|
23.73
|
5.50 % |
49.22
|
50.78 |
49.22
|
42.46
|
36.00
|
27.26
|
15.30
|
|
6.00 % |
43.91
|
56.09 |
43.91
|
39.75
|
30.59
|
19.46
|
9.47
|
|
6.50 % |
42.25
|
57.75 |
42.25
|
37.25
|
24.56
|
11.24
|
7.80
|
|
7.00 % |
40.48
|
59.52 |
40.48
|
27.78
|
15.30
|
7.91
|
7.18
|
|
7.50 % |
35.80
|
64.20 |
35.80
|
21.33
|
8.43
|
7.18
|
6.66
|
|
8.00 % |
27.37
|
72.63 |
27.37
|
10.61
|
7.18
|
6.76
|
5.62
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.61
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.23
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.46
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
95.57
|
86.70
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.34
|
90.86
|
78.67
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.822% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.61
|
93.91
|
80.06
|
68.98
|
5.00 % |
99.17
|
0.83 |
99.17
|
96.40
|
81.99
|
75.90
|
56.79
|
|
5.50 % |
96.68
|
95% Succ. 5.737% |
3.32 |
96.68
|
85.04
|
77.84
|
61.77
|
40.72
|
6.00 % |
85.87
|
14.13 |
85.87
|
80.61
|
68.70
|
47.37
|
25.21
|
|
6.50 % |
82.55
|
17.45 |
82.55
|
75.90
|
54.57
|
29.92
|
20.78
|
|
7.00 % |
80.06
|
80% Succ. 7.012% |
19.94 |
80.06
|
59.83
|
38.50
|
21.05
|
19.11
|
7.50 % |
70.64
|
29.36 |
70.64
|
45.98
|
22.44
|
19.11
|
17.73
|
|
8.00 % |
53.46
|
46.54 |
53.46
|
27.15
|
19.11
|
18.01
|
14.96
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries Asset Class
For the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com