US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries: 20-year retirement

Last Update: 31 October 2024

Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries asset class?

According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.622% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.

Considering the last 20 years (last update: October 2024), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.916%.

The last 20 years of the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries asset class

Over the last 20 years (last update: October 2024), the asset class has returned 3.4% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -47.74%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the investment didn't run out of money during retirement. The capital went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Oct 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]
Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 Nov 2004
31 Oct 2024 1.060 6.916 3.40
[ 0.84 ]
-47.74
Aug 2020 - Oct 2023
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at September 2024

For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries asset class?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1924 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1974 - Oct 2024
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
0.000
Apr 1897
0.000
Oct 1898
0.000
Sep 1961
1.995
Oct 1961
3.622
Feb 1941
95%
0.000
0.000
1.057
2.510
3.929
90%
0.000
0.000
1.344
2.743
4.191
80%
0.000
0.482
1.851
3.274
4.628
50%
Median WR
2.309
3.106
4.118
5.199
5.871
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
0.000
Sep 1932
0.000
Sep 1938
0.000
Sep 1961
1.995
Oct 1961
3.622
Feb 1941
95%
0.000
0.000
0.894
2.392
3.812
90%
0.000
0.000
1.159
2.554
3.960
80%
0.000
0.102
1.472
2.901
4.296
50%
Median WR
1.761
2.722
3.631
4.375
5.387
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
0.808
Nov 2003
2.423
Nov 2003
3.988
Nov 2004
4.907
Jan 1977
5.475
Jan 1977
95%
1.745
3.106
4.458
5.228
5.816
90%
3.396
4.009
4.619
5.439
6.036
80%
3.811
4.543
5.309
6.084
7.145
50%
Median WR
5.218
5.918
6.656
7.383
8.099
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at September 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries asset class, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1924 - Oct 2024
Period: Nov 1974 - Oct 2024
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.94
78.16
63.35
54.14
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
95.27
67.95
58.62
46.80
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
86.12
63.35
51.84
42.25
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.622%
0.00
72.81
57.00
46.61
37.96
4.00 %
92.84
90% Succ.
4.191%
7.16
62.48
51.09
42.44
34.85
4.50 %
82.89
80% Succ.
4.628%
17.11
53.33
46.86
36.40
31.80
5.00 %
61.11
38.89
51.21
41.13
34.10
26.63
5.50 %
53.52
50% Succ.
5.871%
46.48
46.73
36.53
29.68
18.11
6.00 %
49.10
50.90
41.19
32.17
22.78
12.88
6.50 %
47.04
52.96
37.21
27.13
15.12
11.20
7.00 %
42.63
57.37
29.87
18.67
11.51
10.02
7.50 %
36.22
63.78
24.46
12.69
10.14
8.77
8.00 %
28.87
71.13
15.06
10.52
9.09
7.09
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.90
67.95
54.42
48.49
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
92.09
57.54
52.76
43.60
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
77.73
54.63
46.51
40.06
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.622%
0.00
61.08
50.99
43.39
35.80
4.00 %
88.03
80% Succ.
4.296%
11.97
54.42
47.24
40.17
32.26
4.50 %
72.11
27.89
49.12
43.18
33.61
28.10
5.00 %
54.73
50% Succ.
5.387%
45.27
47.45
37.98
31.32
22.27
5.50 %
49.22
50.78
42.04
34.13
25.39
15.30
6.00 %
43.91
56.09
38.09
28.72
18.21
9.47
6.50 %
42.25
57.75
35.38
22.68
11.24
7.80
7.00 %
40.06
59.94
25.91
14.46
7.91
7.18
7.50 %
34.03
65.97
19.46
8.43
7.18
6.66
8.00 %
25.49
74.51
10.20
7.18
6.76
5.62
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
93.91
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.45
92.80
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
96.12
92.52
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
92.80
86.15
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.45
90.03
78.67
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
93.35
80.06
68.98
5.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
5.475%
0.00
99.72
81.99
75.90
56.79
5.50 %
99.72
95% Succ.
5.816%
0.28
88.37
77.84
61.77
40.72
6.00 %
90.30
90% Succ.
6.036%
9.70
81.16
68.70
47.37
25.21
6.50 %
87.53
12.47
75.90
54.57
29.92
20.78
7.00 %
83.93
80% Succ.
7.145%
16.07
59.83
38.50
21.05
19.11
7.50 %
70.91
29.09
45.98
22.44
19.11
17.73
8.00 %
53.46
46.54
27.15
19.11
18.01
14.96
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at September 2024

Related Pages

Asset Class Main Page:
US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries Asset Class

For the US Long Term (20y+) Treasuries Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

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