Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 60 years retirement, investing in the US Intermediate Term (3-7y) Treasuries asset class?
According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 60-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.377% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 60 years.
Considering the last 60 years (last update: April 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 2.63%.
The last 60 years of the US Intermediate Term (3-7y) Treasuries asset class
Over the last 60 years (last update: April 2023), the asset class has returned 6.03% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -13.59%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
60 Years |
1 May 1963 |
30 Apr 2023 | 1.849 | 2.630 |
6.03 [ 2.05 ] |
-13.59 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Intermediate Term (3-7y) Treasuries page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Intermediate Term (3-7y) Treasuries asset class?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 60-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.608 Oct 1915 |
0.839 Aug 1939 |
1.020 Aug 1939 |
1.201 Aug 1939 |
1.377 Feb 1941 |
1.525 95% Succ. |
1.604 90% Succ. |
2.067 80% Succ. |
2.447 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.370 |
1.684 |
1.951 |
2.229 |
2.447 | |||||
Average |
1.690 |
1.934 |
2.178 |
2.421 |
2.665 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
5.718 Mar 1873 |
5.861 Mar 1873 |
6.003 Mar 1873 |
6.148 Feb 1873 |
6.294 Feb 1873 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.608 |
0.707 |
0.747 |
0.928 |
1.370 |
75% |
0.839 |
0.933 |
0.998 |
1.196 |
1.684 |
|
50% |
1.020 |
1.129 |
1.219 |
1.453 |
1.951 |
|
25% |
1.201 |
1.330 |
1.411 |
1.764 |
2.229 |
|
0% |
1.377 |
1.525 |
1.604 |
2.067 |
2.447 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.658 Aug 1939 |
0.839 Aug 1939 |
1.020 Aug 1939 |
1.201 Aug 1939 |
1.377 Feb 1941 |
1.428 95% Succ. |
1.514 90% Succ. |
1.580 80% Succ. |
2.253 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.390 |
1.687 |
1.929 |
2.089 |
2.253 | |||||
Average |
1.382 |
1.575 |
1.768 |
1.960 |
2.153 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
2.294 Oct 1959 |
2.443 Oct 1959 |
2.593 Oct 1959 |
2.742 Oct 1959 |
2.932 Nov 1923 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.658 |
0.697 |
0.726 |
0.794 |
1.390 |
75% |
0.839 |
0.897 |
0.928 |
0.989 |
1.687 |
|
50% |
1.020 |
1.074 |
1.123 |
1.187 |
1.929 |
|
25% |
1.201 |
1.245 |
1.322 |
1.384 |
2.089 |
|
0% |
1.377 |
1.428 |
1.514 |
1.580 |
2.253 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Intermediate Term (3-7y) Treasuries asset class, over 60 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 60-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
60 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
82.24
|
80% Succ. 2.067% |
17.76 |
82.24
|
60.78
|
47.16
|
35.62
|
24.26
|
2.50 % |
46.26
|
53.74 |
46.26
|
30.93
|
20.83
|
16.23
|
15.15
|
|
3.00 % |
22.00
|
78.00 |
22.00
|
17.13
|
15.33
|
12.80
|
11.81
|
|
3.50 % |
14.97
|
85.03 |
14.97
|
12.62
|
10.10
|
8.75
|
7.12
|
|
4.00 % |
9.74
|
90.26 |
9.74
|
6.94
|
6.58
|
6.04
|
5.59
|
|
4.50 % |
5.95
|
94.05 |
5.95
|
5.50
|
5.05
|
4.69
|
4.33
|
|
5.00 % |
4.69
|
95.31 |
4.69
|
4.24
|
3.79
|
3.07
|
2.61
|
|
5.50 % |
3.07
|
96.93 |
3.07
|
2.71
|
2.07
|
1.26
|
0.45
|
|
6.00 % |
1.17
|
98.83 |
1.17
|
0.45
|
0.18
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
60 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
61.12
|
50% Succ. 2.253% |
38.88 |
61.12
|
54.89
|
42.00
|
27.03
|
12.27
|
2.50 % |
34.51
|
65.49 |
34.51
|
9.77
|
1.87
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
3.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
3.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
US Intermediate Term (3-7y) Treasuries Asset Class
For the US Intermediate Term (3-7y) Treasuries Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com