Last Update: 31 October 2024
Do you have in mind a 40 years retirement, investing in the Total US Bond Market asset class?
According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 40-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.834% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 40 years.
Considering the last 40 years (last update: October 2024), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 5.885%.
The last 40 years of the Total US Bond Market asset class
Over the last 40 years (last update: October 2024), the asset class has returned 5.77% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.28%.
Timeframes ending at Oct 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 40 Years |
1 Nov 1984 |
31 Oct 2024 | 4.011 | 5.885 |
5.77 [ 2.90 ] |
-17.28 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to Total US Bond Market page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Oct 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Total US Bond Market asset class?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 40-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Nov 1938 |
0.157 Sep 1941 |
1.008 Aug 1941 |
1.834 Feb 1941 |
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.233 |
0.875 |
1.490 |
2.068 |
|
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.462 |
1.045 |
1.609 |
2.248 |
|
|
80% |
1.010 |
1.482 |
1.971 |
2.410 |
2.784 |
|
|
50% Median WR |
1.785 |
2.191 |
2.575 |
2.904 |
3.269 |
|
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Nov 1938 |
0.157 Sep 1941 |
1.008 Aug 1941 |
1.834 Feb 1941 |
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.556 |
1.284 |
1.997 |
|
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.243 |
0.884 |
1.493 |
2.073 |
|
|
80% |
0.000 |
0.511 |
1.085 |
1.644 |
2.290 |
|
|
50% Median WR |
1.744 |
2.136 |
2.553 |
2.829 |
3.101 |
|
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Total US Bond Market asset class, over 40 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 40-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 40 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
97.29
|
95% Succ. 2.068% |
2.71 |
87.20
|
78.93
|
60.94
|
39.58
|
| 2.50 % |
87.05
|
80% Succ. 2.784% |
12.95 |
75.20
|
55.08
|
32.63
|
24.29
|
| 3.00 % |
69.28
|
50% Succ. 3.269% |
30.72 |
46.31
|
32.26
|
22.24
|
17.26
|
| 3.50 % |
43.38
|
56.62 |
30.80
|
21.51
|
17.19
|
12.36
|
|
| 4.00 % |
29.85
|
70.15 |
22.17
|
14.92
|
11.85
|
10.53
|
|
| 4.50 % |
20.34
|
79.66 |
14.92
|
11.56
|
9.80
|
7.46
|
|
| 5.00 % |
15.00
|
85.00 |
11.27
|
9.36
|
7.17
|
5.93
|
|
| 5.50 % |
10.97
|
89.03 |
9.07
|
6.58
|
5.71
|
4.83
|
|
| 6.00 % |
8.27
|
91.73 |
6.14
|
5.19
|
3.51
|
2.34
|
|
| 6.50 % |
5.71
|
94.29 |
4.54
|
2.71
|
1.90
|
0.37
|
|
| 7.00 % |
3.51
|
96.49 |
2.12
|
1.17
|
0.22
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.50 % |
1.68
|
98.32 |
0.37
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 8.00 % |
0.22
|
99.78 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 40 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
94.87
|
90% Succ. 2.073% |
5.13 |
75.73
|
66.57
|
54.23
|
42.58
|
| 2.50 % |
75.45
|
24.55 |
64.91
|
52.98
|
29.13
|
26.35
|
|
| 3.00 % |
57.70
|
50% Succ. 3.101% |
42.30 |
39.81
|
27.32
|
21.36
|
17.89
|
| 3.50 % |
35.78
|
64.22 |
23.99
|
18.17
|
17.06
|
11.51
|
|
| 4.00 % |
21.78
|
78.22 |
17.34
|
12.07
|
10.68
|
9.43
|
|
| 4.50 % |
12.90
|
87.10 |
10.96
|
9.99
|
8.32
|
5.27
|
|
| 5.00 % |
10.26
|
89.74 |
9.29
|
8.04
|
4.99
|
3.74
|
|
| 5.50 % |
8.74
|
91.26 |
7.63
|
4.30
|
3.61
|
2.77
|
|
| 6.00 % |
6.52
|
93.48 |
3.88
|
3.33
|
1.53
|
0.42
|
|
| 6.50 % |
3.61
|
96.39 |
2.64
|
0.83
|
0.42
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.00 % |
1.80
|
98.20 |
0.42
|
0.28
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.50 % |
0.28
|
99.72 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
Total US Bond Market Asset Class
For the Total US Bond Market Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
