Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the Total US Bond Market asset class?
According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 70-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.307% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 70 years.
Considering the last 70 years (last update: April 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 2.37%.
The last 70 years of the Total US Bond Market asset class
Over the last 70 years (last update: April 2023), the asset class has returned 5.56% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.28%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
70 Years |
1 May 1953 |
30 Apr 2023 | 1.760 | 2.370 |
5.56 [ 1.96 ] |
-17.28 Aug 2020 - Oct 2022 |
For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to Total US Bond Market page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Total US Bond Market asset class?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.257 Aug 1911 |
0.654 May 1911 |
1.044 May 1911 |
1.183 Jun 1939 |
1.307 Feb 1941 |
1.433 95% Succ. |
1.498 90% Succ. |
1.831 80% Succ. |
2.141 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.414 |
1.598 |
1.783 |
1.928 |
2.141 | |||||
Average |
1.661 |
1.860 |
2.060 |
2.259 |
2.458 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
5.497 Mar 1873 |
5.623 Mar 1873 |
5.752 Feb 1873 |
5.881 Feb 1873 |
6.010 Feb 1873 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.257 |
0.773 |
0.820 |
0.903 |
1.414 |
75% |
0.654 |
0.987 |
1.044 |
1.104 |
1.598 |
|
50% |
1.044 |
1.145 |
1.215 |
1.330 |
1.783 |
|
25% |
1.183 |
1.298 |
1.366 |
1.568 |
1.928 |
|
0% |
1.307 |
1.433 |
1.498 |
1.831 |
2.141 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.805 Jun 1939 |
0.931 Jun 1939 |
1.057 Jun 1939 |
1.183 Jun 1939 |
1.307 Feb 1941 |
1.339 95% Succ. |
1.390 90% Succ. |
1.466 80% Succ. |
1.866 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.328 |
1.460 |
1.601 |
1.733 |
1.866 | |||||
Average |
1.341 |
1.476 |
1.611 |
1.745 |
1.880 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
2.000 Nov 1923 |
2.167 Nov 1923 |
2.335 Nov 1923 |
2.502 Nov 1923 |
2.669 Nov 1923 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.805 |
0.854 |
0.877 |
0.934 |
1.328 |
75% |
0.931 |
0.976 |
1.004 |
1.068 |
1.460 |
|
50% |
1.057 |
1.099 |
1.129 |
1.201 |
1.601 |
|
25% |
1.183 |
1.221 |
1.261 |
1.333 |
1.733 |
|
0% |
1.307 |
1.339 |
1.390 |
1.466 |
1.866 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Total US Bond Market asset class, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
64.21
|
50% Succ. 2.141% |
35.79 |
64.21
|
47.22
|
41.35
|
28.11
|
20.93
|
2.50 % |
33.97
|
66.03 |
33.97
|
23.96
|
20.12
|
18.30
|
14.96
|
|
3.00 % |
19.62
|
80.38 |
19.62
|
16.78
|
14.16
|
11.22
|
8.39
|
|
3.50 % |
12.64
|
87.36 |
12.64
|
10.21
|
7.99
|
7.68
|
7.18
|
|
4.00 % |
7.58
|
92.42 |
7.58
|
7.18
|
6.47
|
6.17
|
5.76
|
|
4.50 % |
5.86
|
94.14 |
5.86
|
5.46
|
5.26
|
4.75
|
4.65
|
|
5.00 % |
4.65
|
95.35 |
4.65
|
4.04
|
3.54
|
3.03
|
2.83
|
|
5.50 % |
2.43
|
97.57 |
2.43
|
1.82
|
1.21
|
0.51
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.20
|
99.80 |
0.20
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
43.77
|
56.23 |
43.77
|
33.80
|
28.53
|
6.93
|
0.28
|
|
2.50 % |
7.76
|
92.24 |
7.76
|
0.28
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
3.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
3.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
4.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
Total US Bond Market Asset Class
For the Total US Bond Market Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com