Total US Bond Market: 40-year retirement

Last Update: 30 April 2023

Do you have in mind a 40 years retirement, investing in the Total US Bond Market asset class?

According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 40-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.834% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 40 years.

Considering the last 40 years (last update: April 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 5.811%.

The last 40 years of the Total US Bond Market asset class

Over the last 40 years (last update: April 2023), the asset class has returned 5.96% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.28%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the investment didn't run out of money during retirement. The capital went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Apr 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
40 Years 1 May 1983
 30 Apr 2023 4.048 5.811 5.96
[ 3.03 ] 		-17.28
Aug 2020 - Oct 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Total US Bond Market Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2023

For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to Total US Bond Market page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Total US Bond Market asset class?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 40-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Feb 1933 		0.000
Nov 1938 		0.157
Sep 1941 		1.008
Aug 1941 		1.834
Feb 1941 		2.059
95% Succ. 		2.237
90% Succ. 		2.779
80% Succ. 		3.252
50% Succ.
Median 1.768
 2.173
 2.569
 2.890
 3.252
Average 1.978
 2.365
 2.792
 3.229
 3.666
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		6.738
Mar 1873 		7.071
Mar 1873 		7.403
Mar 1873 		7.736
Mar 1873 		8.070
Feb 1873
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 1.005
 1.768
75% 0.000
 0.233
 0.450
 1.467
 2.173
50% 0.157
 0.874
 1.038
 1.963
 2.569
25% 1.008
 1.479
 1.608
 2.404
 2.890
0% 1.834
 2.059
 2.237
 2.779
 3.252
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Feb 1933 		0.000
Nov 1938 		0.157
Sep 1941 		1.008
Aug 1941 		1.834
Feb 1941 		1.997
95% Succ. 		2.073
90% Succ. 		2.290
80% Succ. 		3.101
50% Succ.
Median 1.744
 2.136
 2.553
 2.829
 3.101
Average 1.739
 2.073
 2.480
 2.908
 3.336
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		6.422
Sep 1981 		6.748
Sep 1981 		7.074
Sep 1981 		7.400
Sep 1981 		7.726
Sep 1981
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 1.744
75% 0.000
 0.000
 0.243
 0.511
 2.136
50% 0.157
 0.556
 0.884
 1.085
 2.553
25% 1.008
 1.284
 1.493
 1.644
 2.829
0% 1.834
 1.997
 2.073
 2.290
 3.101
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Total US Bond Market Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Total US Bond Market asset class, over 40 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 40-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
40 Years
% Fail
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
97.26
95% Succ.
2.059% 		2.74
97.26
87.03
78.65
60.42
38.77
2.50 %
86.88
80% Succ.
2.779% 		13.12
86.88
74.87
54.48
31.73
23.28
3.00 %
68.87
50% Succ.
3.252% 		31.13
68.87
45.59
31.36
21.20
16.16
3.50 %
42.62
57.38
42.62
29.87
20.46
16.09
11.19
4.00 %
28.91
71.09
28.91
21.13
13.79
10.67
9.34
4.50 %
19.27
80.73
19.27
13.79
10.38
8.67
7.41
5.00 %
13.86
86.14
13.86
10.08
8.23
7.12
6.00
5.50 %
9.79
90.21
9.79
7.93
6.52
5.78
4.89
6.00 %
7.26
92.74
7.26
6.15
5.26
3.56
2.37
6.50 %
5.78
94.22
5.78
4.60
2.74
1.93
0.37
7.00 %
3.56
96.44
3.56
2.15
1.19
0.22
0.00
7.50 %
1.70
98.30
1.70
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.22
99.78
0.22
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
40 Years
% Fail
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
94.87
90% Succ.
2.073% 		5.13
94.87
75.73
66.57
54.23
41.47
2.50 %
75.45
24.55
75.45
64.91
52.98
28.29
23.86
3.00 %
57.70
50% Succ.
3.101% 		42.30
57.70
39.81
26.77
18.86
15.40
3.50 %
35.78
64.22
35.78
23.72
15.67
14.56
9.02
4.00 %
21.78
78.22
21.78
14.84
9.57
8.18
6.93
4.50 %
10.40
89.60
10.40
8.46
7.49
5.96
4.99
5.00 %
7.77
92.23
7.77
6.80
5.69
4.72
3.74
5.50 %
6.24
93.76
6.24
5.27
4.02
3.61
2.77
6.00 %
4.44
95.56
4.44
3.74
3.33
1.53
0.42
6.50 %
3.61
96.39
3.61
2.64
0.83
0.42
0.00
7.00 %
1.80
98.20
1.80
0.42
0.28
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.28
99.72
0.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Total US Bond Market Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Related Pages

Asset Class Main Page:
Total US Bond Market Asset Class

For the Total US Bond Market Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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