Total US Bond Market: 20-year retirement

Last Update: 31 May 2024

Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Total US Bond Market asset class?

According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.66% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.

Considering the last 20 years (last update: May 2024), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 5.998%.

The last 20 years of the Total US Bond Market asset class

Over the last 20 years (last update: May 2024), the asset class has returned 2.97% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -17.28%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the investment didn't run out of money during retirement. The capital went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at May 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]
Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 Jun 2004
31 May 2024 0.447 5.998 2.97
[ 0.39 ]
-17.28
Aug 2020 - Oct 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Total US Bond Market Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at May 2024

For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to Total US Bond Market page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at May 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Total US Bond Market asset class?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - May 2024
Period: Jun 1924 - May 2024
Period: Jun 1974 - May 2024
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
0.000
May 1897
0.000
Jan 1899
0.947
Aug 1939
2.376
Aug 1939
3.660
Feb 1941
95%
0.000
0.154
1.632
2.973
4.156
90%
0.000
0.472
1.828
3.318
4.604
80%
0.036
1.271
2.477
3.664
4.823
50%
Median WR
2.105
2.922
3.860
4.830
5.948
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
0.000
Apr 1932
0.000
Sep 1938
0.947
Aug 1939
2.376
Aug 1939
3.660
Feb 1941
95%
0.000
0.088
1.529
2.834
4.025
90%
0.000
0.364
1.742
2.994
4.245
80%
0.000
0.721
2.188
3.506
4.739
50%
Median WR
1.525
2.479
3.472
4.487
5.625
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
0.110
Nov 2003
1.549
Nov 2003
2.985
Oct 2003
4.392
Apr 2004
5.761
Apr 2004
95%
0.587
1.919
3.258
4.630
5.985
90%
2.081
3.160
4.235
5.234
6.138
80%
2.747
3.742
4.649
5.497
6.308
50%
Median WR
3.694
4.549
5.416
6.293
7.149
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Total US Bond Market Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at May 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Total US Bond Market asset class, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - May 2024
Period: Jun 1924 - May 2024
Period: Jun 1974 - May 2024
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
86.70
63.73
52.68
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
98.38
79.65
56.05
42.70
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
93.70
66.79
49.38
35.89
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.660%
0.00
86.14
53.31
43.70
29.90
4.00 %
97.38
95% Succ.
4.156%
2.62
68.66
48.44
35.52
25.03
4.50 %
92.26
90% Succ.
4.604%
7.74
52.81
44.32
28.65
16.85
5.00 %
72.41
27.59
48.44
35.21
23.10
13.05
5.50 %
55.06
50% Succ.
5.948%
44.94
43.70
27.28
15.17
10.86
6.00 %
49.38
50.62
34.89
21.22
12.23
8.74
6.50 %
42.63
57.37
26.97
13.92
9.61
6.37
7.00 %
34.64
65.36
19.35
11.36
7.37
4.37
7.50 %
26.59
73.41
12.92
8.43
5.24
2.87
8.00 %
18.41
81.59
10.11
5.74
3.50
1.62
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
81.48
57.44
47.35
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
97.29
73.99
49.95
38.40
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
89.49
62.43
45.37
31.74
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.660%
0.00
80.23
49.74
39.85
24.45
4.00 %
95.63
95% Succ.
4.025%
4.37
65.45
44.02
31.32
17.59
4.50 %
87.83
80% Succ.
4.739%
12.17
49.84
39.96
22.79
9.68
5.00 %
70.76
29.24
43.70
30.49
15.40
7.49
5.50 %
53.28
50% Succ.
5.625%
46.72
38.19
21.12
8.12
6.66
6.00 %
45.27
54.73
29.97
13.42
6.97
4.79
6.50 %
36.63
63.37
21.85
7.60
5.62
2.91
7.00 %
29.24
70.76
11.45
6.66
3.75
1.87
7.50 %
21.85
78.15
7.18
4.68
2.39
0.83
8.00 %
11.76
88.24
5.83
2.81
1.56
0.31
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
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Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
94.18
90.86
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
92.80
83.93
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.45
90.86
74.79
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
93.91
84.49
56.79
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
91.14
70.91
41.00
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
97.51
85.32
52.08
25.76
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
92.52
62.05
35.46
19.94
5.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
5.761%
0.00
79.78
46.54
21.61
17.73
6.00 %
93.91
90% Succ.
6.138%
6.09
59.28
30.19
18.56
12.74
6.50 %
74.24
25.76
41.27
20.22
14.96
7.76
7.00 %
55.96
50% Succ.
7.149%
44.04
24.10
17.73
9.97
4.99
7.50 %
37.95
62.05
19.11
12.47
6.37
2.22
8.00 %
21.05
78.95
15.51
7.48
4.16
0.83
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Total US Bond Market Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at May 2024

Related Pages

Asset Class Main Page:
Total US Bond Market Asset Class

For the Total US Bond Market Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

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