Commodities: a good asset for your retirement?

Last Update: 31 January 2024

Commodities is an asset class belonging to Commodities category.

You can invest in this asset class, let it passively follow the market trend, and in the meantime you can periodically withdraw a portion of it for your retirement.

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.259% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

Considering the last 30-year (last update: January 2024), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 3.637%.

In this post, we will find out the most affordable withdrawal strategies. All calculations are made on actual historical series(*).

(*)1871-1970: data source extended with yearly real price variations of an equal-weighted commodity basket.

Commodities asset class

Over the last 30 years (last update: January 2024), the asset class has returned 1.66% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -88.68%.

Let's consider different timeframes, all ending at January 2024: which Withdrawal Rates could you have applied without running out of money in your retirement?

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the investment didn't run out of money during retirement. The capital went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at Jan 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]
Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 Feb 2004
31 Jan 2024 0.000 2.859 -1.83
[ -4.30 ]
-88.68
Jul 2008 - Apr 2020
30 Years 1 Feb 1994
31 Jan 2024 0.000 3.637 1.66
[ -0.84 ]
-88.68
Jul 2008 - Apr 2020
40 Years 1 Feb 1984
31 Jan 2024 1.830 4.905 4.01
[ 1.17 ]
-88.68
Jul 2008 - Apr 2020
50 Years 1 Feb 1974
31 Jan 2024 0.935 2.989 4.63
[ 0.75 ]
-88.68
Jul 2008 - Apr 2020
60 Years 1 Feb 1964
31 Jan 2024 2.651 3.833 5.97
[ 1.98 ]
-88.68
Jul 2008 - Apr 2020
70 Years 1 Feb 1954
31 Jan 2024 1.552 2.418 5.08
[ 1.48 ]
-88.68
Jul 2008 - Apr 2020
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Commodities Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2024

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Jan 2024)

During your retirement, tipically you want to divest periodically some amount of money from your invested capital, without running out of money over a long period.

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Commodities asset class?

Methodology and Definitions
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation. The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.

Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
  • At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
  • Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
  • Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
  • Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
  • Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too. In this website, you can find PWRs with 100% Capital Protection, or less.

The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money. In this website, you can find SWRs with 100% Success rate, or less.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits

Analyzing the available data source, several N-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

For instance, given a 20 years timeframe, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month (Jan 2024).

Period: Jan 1871 - Jan 2024
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 20 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Dec 1884
0.000
May 1890
0.000
Feb 1899
0.439
May 1911
1.853
Feb 1916
2.654 3.076 3.570 5.188
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Feb 1878
0.000
May 1888
0.000
Sep 1889
0.223
May 1901
1.259
Feb 1916
1.664 1.779 1.984 3.298
40 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Dec 1873
0.000
Jun 1878
0.000
Feb 1880
0.000
Feb 1916
0.851
Feb 1916
1.170 1.217 1.320 2.141
50 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Jan 1871
0.000
Jan 1871
0.000
Feb 1871
0.000
Feb 1899
0.604
Feb 1916
0.821 0.859 0.951 1.520
60 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Jan 1871
0.000
Jan 1871
0.000
Jan 1871
0.000
Feb 1892
0.469
Feb 1916
0.598 0.627 0.682 1.211
70 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Jan 1871
0.000
Jan 1871
0.000
Jul 1873
0.000
Aug 1887
0.419
Feb 1916
0.488 0.500 0.525 0.925
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Period: Feb 1924 - Jan 2024
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 20 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Nov 1926
0.000
Feb 1933
0.000
Feb 1937
0.881
Nov 2000
2.859
Feb 2004
3.362 3.457 3.848 5.645
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Feb 1924
0.000
Feb 1924
0.000
Apr 1933
0.614
Mar 1941
1.784
Feb 1941
1.989 2.068 2.416 3.575
40 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Feb 1924
0.000
Feb 1924
0.000
Nov 1929
0.880
Aug 1937
1.353
May 1936
1.456 1.570 1.749 2.995
50 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Oct 1926
0.086
Apr 1936
0.447
Apr 1936
0.808
Apr 1936
1.168
May 1936
1.256 1.352 1.486 2.174
60 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.108
Aug 1925
0.417
Aug 1925
0.726
Aug 1924
0.957
Mar 1936
1.084
Mar 1936
1.149 1.197 1.309 1.633
70 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.260
May 1950
0.685
May 1950
0.912
Apr 1936
0.975
Apr 1936
1.038
Mar 1936
1.090 1.109 1.222 1.413
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Period: Feb 1974 - Jan 2024
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Timeframes 20 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Aug 1995
0.000
Dec 1995
0.000
Dec 1996
0.881
Nov 2000
2.859
Feb 2004
4.094 4.733 5.446 6.938
30 Years
Worst Period (from)
0.000
Jan 1989
0.000
Jan 1990
0.000
Apr 1990
0.762
Oct 1990
2.816
Oct 1990
3.277 3.396 4.149 5.768
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Commodities Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Commodities asset class, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all the past timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Jan 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
30 Years
40 Years
50 Years
60 Years
70 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
99.44
78.96
56.63
50% Succ.
2.141%
28.76
17.08
5.51
2.50 %
97.00
95% Succ.
2.654%
66.17
38.22
21.73
12.88
0.00
3.00 %
90.11
90% Succ.
3.076%
59.81
50% Succ.
3.298%
29.16
16.80
7.25
0.00
3.50 %
81.29
80% Succ.
3.570%
40.87
22.90
15.27
3.31
0.00
4.00 %
71.84
29.03
18.85
11.71
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
60.76
23.88
15.24
8.72
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
53.63
50% Succ.
5.188%
19.89
10.90
6.79
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
40.11
15.83
7.07
5.49
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
29.91
13.19
5.45
4.44
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
20.21
11.16
4.34
3.31
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
16.65
8.86
3.83
2.42
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
13.58
6.43
3.17
0.73
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
11.14
3.99
2.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
Period: Feb 1924 - Jan 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
30 Years
40 Years
50 Years
60 Years
70 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
94.41
90% Succ.
2.068%
75.87
52.41
50% Succ.
2.174%
39.71
15.24
2.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
2.859%
78.72
55.20
50% Succ.
2.995%
44.09
29.94
0.00
3.00 %
99.79
95% Succ.
3.362%
73.01
49.65
34.61
16.84
0.00
3.50 %
88.03
80% Succ.
3.848%
53.27
50% Succ.
3.575%
43.00
31.45
7.69
0.00
4.00 %
77.00
45.90
35.51
24.13
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
67.22
39.95
28.71
17.97
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
63.16
34.96
20.53
13.98
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
53.17
50% Succ.
5.645%
27.82
13.31
11.31
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
44.12
23.19
10.26
9.15
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
32.26
19.62
8.18
6.82
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
27.68
15.58
7.21
4.99
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
22.58
11.30
5.96
1.50
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
18.52
7.02
4.72
0.00
0.00
0.00
Period: Feb 1974 - Jan 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
30 Years
% Success Percentile % Success Percentile
2.00 %
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
2.859%
100.00
100% Succ.
2.816%
3.00 %
99.45
99.17
95% Succ.
3.277%
3.50 %
97.51
86.72
4.00 %
95.57
95% Succ.
4.094%
80.50
80% Succ.
4.149%
4.50 %
90.58
90% Succ.
4.733%
74.69
5.00 %
85.04
80% Succ.
5.446%
66.39
5.50 %
78.67
54.77
50% Succ.
5.768%
6.00 %
71.47
46.06
6.50 %
56.51
50% Succ.
6.938%
37.34
7.00 %
47.92
28.22
7.50 %
39.06
15.77
8.00 %
29.92
4.98
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Commodities Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2024

Related Pages

Asset Class Main Page:
Commodities Asset Class

For the Commodities Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com