Last Update: 30 November 2024
Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the Commodities asset class?
According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 70-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 0.419% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 70 years.
Considering the last 70 years (last update: November 2024), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 2.431%.
The last 70 years of the Commodities asset class
Over the last 70 years (last update: November 2024), the asset class has returned 5.09% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -88.68%.
Timeframes ending at Nov 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
| 70 Years |
1 Dec 1954 |
30 Nov 2024 | 1.545 | 2.431 |
5.09 [ 1.45 ] |
-88.68 Jul 2008 - Apr 2020 |
For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to Commodities page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Commodities asset class?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.000 Jan 1871 |
0.000 Jan 1871 |
0.000 Jul 1873 |
0.000 Aug 1887 |
0.419 Feb 1916 |
|
95% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.488 |
|
|
90% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.501 |
|
|
80% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.034 |
0.526 |
|
|
50% Median WR |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.077 |
0.426 |
0.933 |
|
| WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
||
| Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.260 May 1950 |
0.685 May 1950 |
0.912 Apr 1936 |
0.975 Apr 1936 |
1.038 Mar 1936 |
|
95% |
0.677 |
0.852 |
0.949 |
1.024 |
1.090 |
|
|
90% |
0.737 |
0.884 |
0.977 |
1.048 |
1.109 |
|
|
80% |
0.813 |
0.921 |
1.022 |
1.139 |
1.226 |
|
|
50% Median WR |
0.931 |
1.052 |
1.173 |
1.302 |
1.429 |
|
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Commodities asset class, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
6.45
|
93.55 |
3.47
|
0.99
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 2.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 3.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 3.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 4.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 4.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
| 2.00 % |
18.01
|
81.99 |
9.70
|
2.77
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 2.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 3.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 3.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 4.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 4.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
| 8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
Commodities Asset Class
For the Commodities Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com
