Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the Commodities asset class?
According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.259% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
Considering the last 30 years (last update: April 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 3.307%.
The last 30 years of the Commodities asset class
Over the last 30 years (last update: April 2023), the asset class has returned 1.19% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -88.68%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
30 Years |
1 May 1993 |
30 Apr 2023 | 0.000 | 3.307 |
1.19 [ -1.29 ] |
-88.68 Jul 2008 - Apr 2020 |
For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to Commodities page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Commodities asset class?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Feb 1878 |
0.000 May 1888 |
0.000 Sep 1889 |
0.223 May 1901 |
1.259 Feb 1916 |
1.664 95% Succ. |
1.778 90% Succ. |
1.979 80% Succ. |
3.294 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
0.000 |
0.568 |
1.315 |
2.295 |
3.294 | |||||
Average |
1.292 |
1.590 |
2.034 |
2.765 |
3.668 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
8.873 Jun 1970 |
9.213 Jun 1970 |
9.553 Jun 1970 |
9.893 Jun 1970 |
10.232 Jun 1970 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.568 |
|
50% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
1.315 |
|
25% |
0.223 |
0.430 |
0.635 |
0.797 |
2.295 |
|
0% |
1.259 |
1.664 |
1.778 |
1.979 |
3.294 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 May 1923 |
0.000 May 1923 |
0.000 Apr 1933 |
0.614 Mar 1941 |
1.784 Feb 1941 |
1.989 95% Succ. |
2.068 90% Succ. |
2.416 80% Succ. |
3.567 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.277 |
1.877 |
2.402 |
2.931 |
3.567 | |||||
Average |
2.179 |
2.500 |
2.993 |
3.681 |
4.419 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
8.873 Jun 1970 |
9.213 Jun 1970 |
9.553 Jun 1970 |
9.893 Jun 1970 |
10.232 Jun 1970 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
1.277 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
1.877 |
|
50% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.755 |
2.402 |
|
25% |
0.614 |
0.776 |
0.962 |
1.718 |
2.931 |
|
0% |
1.784 |
1.989 |
2.068 |
2.416 |
3.567 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Commodities asset class, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
78.83
|
21.17 |
78.83
|
57.86
|
37.92
|
28.05
|
24.30
|
|
2.50 % |
65.96
|
34.04 |
65.96
|
44.04
|
29.27
|
24.78
|
23.14
|
|
3.00 % |
59.56
|
50% Succ. 3.294% |
40.44 |
59.56
|
31.99
|
25.66
|
23.62
|
20.83
|
3.50 % |
40.57
|
59.43 |
40.57
|
27.23
|
23.76
|
20.63
|
18.18
|
|
4.00 % |
29.20
|
70.80 |
29.20
|
22.80
|
20.49
|
17.77
|
14.77
|
|
4.50 % |
24.03
|
75.97 |
24.03
|
20.76
|
17.22
|
12.93
|
11.03
|
|
5.00 % |
20.01
|
79.99 |
20.01
|
15.79
|
13.27
|
11.03
|
9.39
|
|
5.50 % |
15.93
|
84.07 |
15.93
|
12.87
|
10.96
|
8.99
|
6.40
|
|
6.00 % |
13.27
|
86.73 |
13.27
|
11.23
|
8.78
|
5.38
|
4.29
|
|
6.50 % |
11.23
|
88.77 |
11.23
|
8.65
|
4.97
|
3.95
|
2.86
|
|
7.00 % |
8.92
|
91.08 |
8.92
|
5.45
|
3.34
|
2.79
|
2.31
|
|
7.50 % |
6.47
|
93.53 |
6.47
|
3.27
|
2.79
|
2.18
|
1.77
|
|
8.00 % |
4.02
|
95.98 |
4.02
|
2.79
|
2.18
|
1.63
|
1.43
|
Withdrawal Rate |
30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
94.41
|
90% Succ. 2.068% |
5.59 |
94.41
|
71.11
|
56.12
|
47.21
|
42.45
|
2.50 % |
78.72
|
21.28 |
78.72
|
56.00
|
47.56
|
43.28
|
40.43
|
|
3.00 % |
73.01
|
26.99 |
73.01
|
48.99
|
44.47
|
41.26
|
36.39
|
|
3.50 % |
52.32
|
50% Succ. 3.567% |
47.68 |
52.32
|
44.35
|
41.50
|
36.03
|
31.75
|
4.00 % |
45.90
|
54.10 |
45.90
|
39.83
|
35.79
|
31.03
|
25.80
|
|
4.50 % |
39.95
|
60.05 |
39.95
|
36.27
|
30.08
|
22.59
|
19.26
|
|
5.00 % |
34.96
|
65.04 |
34.96
|
27.59
|
23.19
|
19.26
|
16.41
|
|
5.50 % |
27.82
|
72.18 |
27.82
|
22.47
|
19.14
|
15.70
|
11.18
|
|
6.00 % |
23.19
|
76.81 |
23.19
|
19.62
|
15.34
|
9.39
|
7.49
|
|
6.50 % |
19.62
|
80.38 |
19.62
|
15.10
|
8.68
|
6.90
|
4.99
|
|
7.00 % |
15.58
|
84.42 |
15.58
|
9.51
|
5.83
|
4.88
|
4.04
|
|
7.50 % |
11.30
|
88.70 |
11.30
|
5.71
|
4.88
|
3.80
|
3.09
|
|
8.00 % |
7.02
|
92.98 |
7.02
|
4.88
|
3.80
|
2.85
|
2.50
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
Commodities Asset Class
For the Commodities Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com