Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Commodities asset class?
According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.853% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.
Considering the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 3.744%.
The last 20 years of the Commodities asset class
Over the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), the asset class has returned -0.81% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -88.68%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 May 2003 |
30 Apr 2023 | 0.000 | 3.744 |
-0.81 [ -3.26 ] |
-88.68 Jul 2008 - Apr 2020 |
For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to Commodities page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Commodities asset class?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Dec 1884 |
0.000 May 1890 |
0.000 Feb 1899 |
0.439 May 1911 |
1.853 Feb 1916 |
2.654 95% Succ. |
3.083 90% Succ. |
3.579 80% Succ. |
5.200 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
0.037 |
1.343 |
2.664 |
3.883 |
5.200 | |||||
Average |
1.529 |
2.086 |
2.864 |
4.051 |
5.372 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
10.052 Dec 1970 |
10.544 Oct 1971 |
11.107 Jun 1970 |
11.674 Jun 1970 |
12.241 Jun 1970 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.037 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
1.343 |
|
50% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.232 |
2.664 |
|
25% |
0.439 |
0.921 |
1.242 |
1.857 |
3.883 |
|
0% |
1.853 |
2.654 |
3.083 |
3.579 |
5.200 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Nov 1926 |
0.000 Feb 1933 |
0.000 Feb 1937 |
0.881 Nov 2000 |
3.093 Feb 1941 |
3.372 95% Succ. |
3.475 90% Succ. |
3.859 80% Succ. |
5.645 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
1.455 |
2.314 |
3.172 |
4.498 |
5.645 | |||||
Average |
2.306 |
2.864 |
3.637 |
4.821 |
6.032 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
10.052 Dec 1970 |
10.544 Oct 1971 |
11.107 Jun 1970 |
11.674 Jun 1970 |
12.241 Jun 1970 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
1.455 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
2.314 |
|
50% |
0.000 |
0.043 |
0.205 |
0.390 |
3.172 |
|
25% |
0.881 |
1.768 |
1.864 |
2.136 |
4.498 |
|
0% |
3.093 |
3.372 |
3.475 |
3.859 |
5.645 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Aug 1995 |
0.000 Dec 1995 |
0.000 Dec 1996 |
0.881 Nov 2000 |
3.371 Mar 2003 |
4.337 95% Succ. |
4.855 90% Succ. |
5.630 80% Succ. |
6.965 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
2.889 |
3.822 |
4.760 |
5.757 |
6.965 | |||||
Average |
3.299 |
3.951 |
4.799 |
5.936 |
7.144 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
9.404 Jun 1986 |
9.950 Jun 1986 |
10.496 Jun 1986 |
11.042 Jun 1986 |
11.588 Jun 1986 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
2.889 |
75% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.224 |
3.822 |
|
50% |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.266 |
2.085 |
4.760 |
|
25% |
0.881 |
1.974 |
2.624 |
3.896 |
5.757 |
|
0% |
3.371 |
4.337 |
4.855 |
5.630 |
6.965 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Commodities asset class, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
99.43
|
0.57 |
99.43
|
75.02
|
58.40
|
38.33
|
28.70
|
|
2.50 % |
96.98
|
95% Succ. 2.654% |
3.02 |
96.98
|
68.28
|
53.43
|
32.22
|
24.54
|
3.00 % |
90.18
|
90% Succ. 3.083% |
9.82 |
90.18
|
63.69
|
42.04
|
28.13
|
19.32
|
3.50 % |
81.69
|
80% Succ. 3.579% |
18.31 |
81.69
|
58.02
|
32.10
|
23.10
|
14.85
|
4.00 % |
72.25
|
27.75 |
72.25
|
45.25
|
28.01
|
17.62
|
13.03
|
|
4.50 % |
61.11
|
38.89 |
61.11
|
36.12
|
21.08
|
14.03
|
12.08
|
|
5.00 % |
53.93
|
50% Succ. 5.200% |
46.07 |
53.93
|
27.88
|
16.30
|
12.52
|
11.01
|
5.50 % |
40.34
|
59.66 |
40.34
|
20.70
|
13.34
|
11.58
|
9.88
|
|
6.00 % |
30.08
|
69.92 |
30.08
|
15.98
|
11.89
|
10.57
|
8.62
|
|
6.50 % |
20.33
|
79.67 |
20.33
|
13.09
|
11.14
|
9.25
|
7.17
|
|
7.00 % |
16.74
|
83.26 |
16.74
|
11.64
|
9.69
|
7.93
|
6.04
|
|
7.50 % |
13.66
|
86.34 |
13.66
|
10.51
|
8.37
|
6.29
|
4.97
|
|
8.00 % |
11.20
|
88.80 |
11.20
|
9.13
|
6.42
|
5.03
|
3.59
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
82.52
|
67.74
|
52.03
|
44.95
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
73.88
|
62.85
|
47.24
|
40.58
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.093% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
70.66
|
54.11
|
43.81
|
31.95
|
3.50 % |
88.87
|
80% Succ. 3.859% |
11.13 |
88.87
|
68.16
|
46.62
|
38.19
|
24.56
|
4.00 % |
77.94
|
22.06 |
77.94
|
54.94
|
42.98
|
29.14
|
21.54
|
|
4.50 % |
68.16
|
31.84 |
68.16
|
49.95
|
34.65
|
23.20
|
19.98
|
|
5.00 % |
64.10
|
35.90 |
64.10
|
42.14
|
26.95
|
20.71
|
18.21
|
|
5.50 % |
53.17
|
50% Succ. 5.645% |
46.83 |
53.17
|
33.51
|
22.06
|
19.15
|
16.34
|
6.00 % |
44.12
|
55.88 |
44.12
|
26.43
|
19.67
|
17.48
|
14.26
|
|
6.50 % |
32.26
|
67.74 |
32.26
|
21.64
|
18.42
|
15.30
|
11.86
|
|
7.00 % |
27.68
|
72.32 |
27.68
|
19.25
|
16.02
|
13.11
|
9.99
|
|
7.50 % |
22.58
|
77.42 |
22.58
|
17.38
|
13.84
|
10.41
|
8.22
|
|
8.00 % |
18.52
|
81.48 |
18.52
|
15.09
|
10.61
|
8.32
|
5.93
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.74
|
80.33
|
73.41
|
65.37
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
91.14
|
78.67
|
69.53
|
58.45
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.371% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
86.98
|
76.18
|
66.48
|
47.92
|
3.50 % |
99.72
|
0.28 |
99.72
|
83.10
|
73.41
|
58.17
|
40.44
|
|
4.00 % |
98.06
|
95% Succ. 4.337% |
1.94 |
98.06
|
79.22
|
67.87
|
45.98
|
35.18
|
4.50 % |
93.07
|
90% Succ. 4.855% |
6.93 |
93.07
|
77.01
|
55.96
|
37.95
|
32.69
|
5.00 % |
87.53
|
12.47 |
87.53
|
71.47
|
44.32
|
33.80
|
29.09
|
|
5.50 % |
81.16
|
80% Succ. 5.630% |
18.84 |
81.16
|
56.79
|
36.29
|
31.02
|
26.04
|
6.00 % |
73.13
|
26.87 |
73.13
|
44.04
|
31.58
|
27.98
|
21.33
|
|
6.50 % |
57.62
|
50% Succ. 6.965% |
42.38 |
57.62
|
35.46
|
29.64
|
23.27
|
17.73
|
7.00 % |
48.75
|
51.25 |
48.75
|
31.02
|
25.21
|
19.67
|
13.30
|
|
7.50 % |
39.34
|
60.66 |
39.34
|
27.98
|
21.05
|
14.13
|
9.97
|
|
8.00 % |
30.19
|
69.81 |
30.19
|
22.99
|
14.40
|
10.25
|
4.99
|
Related Pages
Asset Class Main Page:
Commodities Asset Class
For the Commodities Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com