Commodities: 20-year retirement

Last Update: 28 February 2023

Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Commodities asset class?

According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 1.853% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.

Considering the last 20 years (last update: February 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 3.371%.

The last 20 years of the Commodities asset class

Over the last 20 years (last update: February 2023), the asset class has returned -1.28% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -88.68%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the investment didn't run out of money during retirement. The capital went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Feb 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 Mar 2003
 28 Feb 2023 0.000 3.371 -1.28
[ -3.67 ] 		-88.68
Jul 2008 - Apr 2020
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Commodities Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to Commodities page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Commodities asset class?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Dec 1884 		0.000
May 1890 		0.000
Feb 1899 		0.439
May 1911 		1.853
Feb 1916 		2.654
95% Succ. 		3.083
90% Succ. 		3.579
80% Succ. 		5.201
50% Succ.
Median 0.037
 1.344
 2.664
 3.884
 5.201
Average 1.531
 2.088
 2.867
 4.054
 5.374
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		10.052
Dec 1970 		10.544
Oct 1971 		11.107
Jun 1970 		11.674
Jun 1970 		12.241
Jun 1970
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.037
75% 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 1.344
50% 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.235
 2.664
25% 0.439
 0.921
 1.242
 1.857
 3.884
0% 1.853
 2.654
 3.083
 3.579
 5.201
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Nov 1926 		0.000
Feb 1933 		0.000
Feb 1937 		0.881
Nov 2000 		3.093
Feb 1941 		3.372
95% Succ. 		3.475
90% Succ. 		3.866
80% Succ. 		5.645
50% Succ.
Median 1.455
 2.314
 3.172
 4.498
 5.645
Average 2.307
 2.867
 3.642
 4.825
 6.035
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		10.052
Dec 1970 		10.544
Oct 1971 		11.107
Jun 1970 		11.674
Jun 1970 		12.241
Jun 1970
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 1.455
75% 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 2.314
50% 0.000
 0.043
 0.212
 0.397
 3.172
25% 0.881
 1.768
 1.864
 2.170
 4.498
0% 3.093
 3.372
 3.475
 3.866
 5.645
Period: Mar 1973 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Aug 1995 		0.000
Dec 1995 		0.000
Dec 1996 		0.881
Nov 2000 		3.371
Mar 2003 		4.383
95% Succ. 		4.868
90% Succ. 		5.660
80% Succ. 		6.974
50% Succ.
Median 2.928
 3.880
 4.792
 5.787
 6.974
Average 3.333
 3.989
 4.839
 5.970
 7.171
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		9.404
Jun 1986 		9.950
Jun 1986 		10.496
Jun 1986 		11.042
Jun 1986 		11.588
Jun 1986
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 2.928
75% 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.283
 3.880
50% 0.000
 0.000
 0.473
 2.308
 4.792
25% 0.881
 2.251
 2.732
 3.979
 5.787
0% 3.371
 4.383
 4.868
 5.660
 6.974
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Commodities Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Commodities asset class, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
99.43
0.57
99.43
75.11
58.48
38.37
28.73
2.50 %
96.98
95% Succ.
2.654% 		3.02
96.98
68.37
53.50
32.26
24.57
3.00 %
90.17
90% Succ.
3.083% 		9.83
90.17
63.77
42.09
28.17
19.34
3.50 %
81.66
80% Succ.
3.579% 		18.34
81.66
58.10
32.14
23.13
14.87
4.00 %
72.34
27.66
72.34
45.31
28.04
17.64
13.04
4.50 %
61.18
38.82
61.18
36.17
21.11
14.05
12.10
5.00 %
54.00
50% Succ.
5.201% 		46.00
54.00
27.91
16.32
12.54
11.03
5.50 %
40.39
59.61
40.39
20.73
13.36
11.59
9.89
6.00 %
30.12
69.88
30.12
16.01
11.91
10.59
8.63
6.50 %
20.35
79.65
20.35
13.11
11.15
9.26
7.18
7.00 %
16.76
83.24
16.76
11.66
9.70
7.94
6.05
7.50 %
13.67
86.33
13.67
10.52
8.38
6.30
4.98
8.00 %
11.22
88.78
11.22
9.14
6.43
5.04
3.59
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
82.73
67.95
52.03
44.95
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
74.09
63.06
47.24
40.58
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.093% 		0.00
100.00
70.86
54.11
43.81
31.95
3.50 %
88.87
80% Succ.
3.866% 		11.13
88.87
68.37
46.62
38.19
24.56
4.00 %
78.15
21.85
78.15
54.94
42.98
29.14
21.54
4.50 %
68.37
31.63
68.37
49.95
34.65
23.20
19.98
5.00 %
64.31
35.69
64.31
42.14
26.95
20.71
18.21
5.50 %
53.17
50% Succ.
5.645% 		46.83
53.17
33.51
22.06
19.15
16.34
6.00 %
44.12
55.88
44.12
26.43
19.67
17.48
14.26
6.50 %
32.26
67.74
32.26
21.64
18.42
15.30
11.86
7.00 %
27.68
72.32
27.68
19.25
16.02
13.11
9.99
7.50 %
22.58
77.42
22.58
17.38
13.84
10.41
8.22
8.00 %
18.52
81.48
18.52
15.09
10.61
8.32
5.93
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1973 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
95.29
80.89
73.96
65.93
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
91.69
79.22
70.08
59.00
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.371% 		0.00
100.00
87.53
76.73
67.04
48.48
3.50 %
99.72
0.28
99.72
83.66
73.96
58.73
41.00
4.00 %
98.61
95% Succ.
4.383% 		1.39
98.61
79.78
68.42
46.54
35.73
4.50 %
93.63
90% Succ.
4.868% 		6.37
93.63
77.56
56.51
38.50
33.24
5.00 %
88.09
11.91
88.09
72.02
44.88
34.35
29.64
5.50 %
81.72
80% Succ.
5.660% 		18.28
81.72
57.34
36.84
31.58
26.59
6.00 %
73.68
26.32
73.68
44.60
32.13
28.53
21.61
6.50 %
58.17
50% Succ.
6.974% 		41.83
58.17
36.01
30.19
23.82
17.73
7.00 %
49.31
50.69
49.31
31.58
25.76
19.67
13.30
7.50 %
39.89
60.11
39.89
28.53
21.05
14.13
9.97
8.00 %
30.75
69.25
30.75
23.27
14.40
10.25
4.99
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Commodities Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Related Pages

Asset Class Main Page:
Commodities Asset Class

For the Commodities Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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