Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 50 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 50 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio
Over the last 50 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 9.63% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -37.47%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 4.491%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
50 Years |
1 May 1973 |
30 Apr 2023 | 4.175 | 4.491 |
9.63 [ 5.46 ] |
-37.47 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 50-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
2.954 Jul 1901 |
3.079 Jul 1901 |
3.204 Jul 1901 |
3.329 Jul 1901 |
3.453 Jul 1901 |
3.762 95% Succ. |
3.922 90% Succ. |
4.233 80% Succ. |
5.102 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
4.690 |
4.793 |
4.900 |
4.999 |
5.102 | |||||
Average |
5.118 |
5.222 |
5.326 |
5.431 |
5.535 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
10.293 Jul 1932 |
10.471 Jul 1932 |
10.649 Jul 1932 |
10.828 Jul 1932 |
11.006 Jul 1932 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
2.954 |
3.402 |
3.571 |
3.849 |
4.690 |
75% |
3.079 |
3.482 |
3.672 |
3.938 |
4.793 |
|
50% |
3.204 |
3.584 |
3.767 |
4.048 |
4.900 |
|
25% |
3.329 |
3.672 |
3.850 |
4.132 |
4.999 |
|
0% |
3.453 |
3.762 |
3.922 |
4.233 |
5.102 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
3.074 Sep 1929 |
3.213 Sep 1929 |
3.353 Sep 1929 |
3.440 Dec 1968 |
3.518 Dec 1968 |
3.790 95% Succ. |
3.967 90% Succ. |
4.238 80% Succ. |
5.290 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
4.825 |
4.937 |
5.049 |
5.180 |
5.290 | |||||
Average |
5.099 |
5.200 |
5.302 |
5.403 |
5.505 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
10.293 Jul 1932 |
10.471 Jul 1932 |
10.649 Jul 1932 |
10.828 Jul 1932 |
11.006 Jul 1932 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
3.074 |
3.440 |
3.579 |
3.845 |
4.825 |
75% |
3.213 |
3.522 |
3.679 |
3.938 |
4.937 |
|
50% |
3.353 |
3.604 |
3.784 |
4.031 |
5.049 |
|
25% |
3.440 |
3.709 |
3.870 |
4.129 |
5.180 |
|
0% |
3.518 |
3.790 |
3.967 |
4.238 |
5.290 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio, over 50 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 50-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
50 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.453% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.92
|
3.50 % |
99.84
|
95% Succ. 3.762% |
0.16 |
99.84
|
99.27
|
97.64
|
94.63
|
92.19
|
4.00 % |
87.79
|
80% Succ. 4.233% |
12.21 |
87.79
|
84.62
|
81.37
|
78.44
|
75.10
|
4.50 % |
71.44
|
28.56 |
71.44
|
67.94
|
64.69
|
61.27
|
56.63
|
|
5.00 % |
53.13
|
50% Succ. 5.102% |
46.87 |
53.13
|
49.96
|
47.36
|
43.94
|
41.74
|
5.50 % |
40.60
|
59.40 |
40.60
|
39.46
|
37.59
|
35.23
|
33.28
|
|
6.00 % |
33.20
|
66.80 |
33.20
|
31.08
|
29.29
|
27.75
|
26.85
|
|
6.50 % |
26.20
|
73.80 |
26.20
|
25.06
|
23.68
|
22.38
|
20.83
|
|
7.00 % |
19.12
|
80.88 |
19.12
|
17.82
|
16.44
|
14.81
|
13.83
|
|
7.50 % |
12.45
|
87.55 |
12.45
|
11.15
|
8.95
|
7.57
|
6.10
|
|
8.00 % |
5.70
|
94.30 |
5.70
|
4.64
|
3.99
|
3.50
|
3.01
|
Withdrawal Rate |
50 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 50 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.518% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.67
|
98.34
|
95.84
|
93.18
|
4.00 % |
88.85
|
80% Succ. 4.238% |
11.15 |
88.85
|
85.02
|
81.36
|
78.20
|
74.71
|
4.50 % |
72.38
|
27.62 |
72.38
|
69.55
|
66.39
|
63.73
|
60.07
|
|
5.00 % |
56.24
|
50% Succ. 5.290% |
43.76 |
56.24
|
53.41
|
51.91
|
48.42
|
45.09
|
5.50 % |
43.59
|
56.41 |
43.59
|
41.43
|
39.43
|
37.44
|
36.27
|
|
6.00 % |
35.44
|
64.56 |
35.44
|
33.44
|
31.11
|
28.79
|
27.45
|
|
6.50 % |
26.96
|
73.04 |
26.96
|
24.96
|
22.30
|
20.13
|
17.80
|
|
7.00 % |
14.98
|
85.02 |
14.98
|
13.14
|
11.81
|
9.82
|
8.82
|
|
7.50 % |
7.49
|
92.51 |
7.49
|
6.66
|
5.82
|
4.83
|
3.83
|
|
8.00 % |
2.50
|
97.50 |
2.50
|
2.00
|
1.50
|
1.00
|
0.67
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com