Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 8.23% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -37.47%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 8.277%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 May 2003 |
30 Apr 2023 | 5.470 | 8.277 |
8.23 [ 5.56 ] |
-37.47 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Apr 1901 |
0.815 Jul 1901 |
2.326 Jul 1901 |
3.838 Jul 1901 |
4.674 Dec 1968 |
5.287 95% Succ. |
5.597 90% Succ. |
6.065 80% Succ. |
8.264 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
5.383 |
6.057 |
6.763 |
7.489 |
8.264 | |||||
Average |
5.402 |
6.119 |
6.837 |
7.555 |
8.273 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
12.135 Jul 1932 |
12.848 Jul 1932 |
13.561 Jul 1932 |
14.274 Jul 1932 |
14.987 Jul 1932 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
1.737 |
2.193 |
3.090 |
5.383 |
75% |
0.815 |
2.695 |
3.070 |
3.819 |
6.057 |
|
50% |
2.326 |
3.639 |
3.986 |
4.621 |
6.763 |
|
25% |
3.838 |
4.515 |
4.811 |
5.379 |
7.489 |
|
0% |
4.674 |
5.287 |
5.597 |
6.065 |
8.264 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.867 Apr 1962 |
2.171 Apr 1962 |
3.232 Sep 1929 |
3.993 Dec 1968 |
4.674 Dec 1968 |
5.223 95% Succ. |
5.593 90% Succ. |
6.239 80% Succ. |
8.330 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
5.718 |
6.331 |
6.932 |
7.618 |
8.330 | |||||
Average |
5.520 |
6.220 |
6.921 |
7.622 |
8.322 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
12.135 Jul 1932 |
12.848 Jul 1932 |
13.561 Jul 1932 |
14.274 Jul 1932 |
14.987 Jul 1932 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.867 |
1.957 |
2.401 |
3.217 |
5.718 |
75% |
2.171 |
2.869 |
3.317 |
3.885 |
6.331 |
|
50% |
3.232 |
3.691 |
4.107 |
4.690 |
6.932 |
|
25% |
3.993 |
4.516 |
4.900 |
5.451 |
7.618 |
|
0% |
4.674 |
5.223 |
5.593 |
6.239 |
8.330 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
2.451 Apr 2000 |
3.190 Apr 2000 |
3.929 Apr 2000 |
4.668 Apr 2000 |
5.407 Apr 2000 |
5.872 95% Succ. |
6.268 90% Succ. |
7.318 80% Succ. |
9.130 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
6.303 |
6.976 |
7.722 |
8.424 |
9.130 | |||||
Average |
6.465 |
7.090 |
7.715 |
8.341 |
8.966 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
11.666 Aug 1982 |
12.266 Aug 1982 |
12.865 Aug 1982 |
13.464 Aug 1982 |
14.063 Aug 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
2.451 |
3.258 |
3.814 |
4.802 |
6.303 |
75% |
3.190 |
3.911 |
4.389 |
5.510 |
6.976 |
|
50% |
3.929 |
4.573 |
4.994 |
6.146 |
7.722 |
|
25% |
4.668 |
5.233 |
5.589 |
6.742 |
8.424 |
|
0% |
5.407 |
5.872 |
6.268 |
7.318 |
9.130 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.12
|
91.88
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.94
|
96.85
|
86.28
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.56
|
91.32
|
81.12
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.73
|
85.02
|
75.46
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.81
|
89.68
|
77.72
|
67.90
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.674% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
95.22
|
82.25
|
70.36
|
62.56
|
5.00 % |
99.06
|
95% Succ. 5.287% |
0.94 |
99.06
|
86.72
|
72.50
|
64.82
|
55.70
|
5.50 % |
91.76
|
90% Succ. 5.597% |
8.24 |
91.76
|
77.78
|
67.90
|
58.65
|
48.27
|
6.00 % |
81.12
|
80% Succ. 6.065% |
18.88 |
81.12
|
70.61
|
61.93
|
50.79
|
41.22
|
6.50 % |
74.83
|
25.17 |
74.83
|
64.88
|
54.37
|
44.18
|
34.36
|
|
7.00 % |
68.66
|
31.34 |
68.66
|
59.09
|
46.07
|
36.50
|
27.44
|
|
7.50 % |
62.56
|
37.44 |
62.56
|
49.65
|
39.40
|
29.26
|
22.40
|
|
8.00 % |
54.25
|
45.75 |
54.25
|
42.10
|
31.34
|
23.66
|
16.49
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.69
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.23
|
88.55
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
93.55
|
83.25
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.50
|
87.51
|
74.82
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.90
|
91.47
|
77.73
|
68.89
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.674% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
95.32
|
82.93
|
72.42
|
63.58
|
5.00 % |
98.54
|
95% Succ. 5.223% |
1.46 |
98.54
|
87.20
|
75.03
|
66.18
|
57.86
|
5.50 % |
91.57
|
90% Succ. 5.593% |
8.43 |
91.57
|
79.60
|
70.34
|
59.11
|
52.03
|
6.00 % |
83.04
|
80% Succ. 6.239% |
16.96 |
83.04
|
73.57
|
62.33
|
53.90
|
43.91
|
6.50 % |
76.69
|
23.31 |
76.69
|
66.08
|
55.88
|
47.55
|
36.11
|
|
7.00 % |
70.03
|
29.97 |
70.03
|
59.21
|
49.32
|
38.50
|
28.51
|
|
7.50 % |
62.54
|
37.46 |
62.54
|
52.03
|
42.04
|
30.39
|
22.89
|
|
8.00 % |
54.94
|
45.06 |
54.94
|
44.75
|
32.88
|
24.35
|
16.44
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.89
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
92.52
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
94.18
|
88.64
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.12
|
88.64
|
83.93
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.407% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.61
|
89.75
|
84.49
|
78.95
|
5.50 % |
99.17
|
95% Succ. 5.872% |
0.83 |
99.17
|
91.69
|
85.04
|
80.33
|
72.58
|
6.00 % |
92.24
|
90% Succ. 6.268% |
7.76 |
92.24
|
86.98
|
80.61
|
76.18
|
59.28
|
6.50 % |
86.98
|
13.02 |
86.98
|
81.44
|
77.56
|
66.76
|
44.04
|
|
7.00 % |
82.27
|
80% Succ. 7.318% |
17.73 |
82.27
|
78.67
|
68.98
|
49.31
|
34.07
|
7.50 % |
79.50
|
20.50 |
79.50
|
71.47
|
57.34
|
37.12
|
27.70
|
|
8.00 % |
73.13
|
26.87 |
73.13
|
62.60
|
42.11
|
28.53
|
22.99
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 70/30 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com