US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio: 70-year retirement

Last Update: 28 February 2023

Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 70-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.615% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 70 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 70 years in the 90.88% of cases. In the 89.16% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 70 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio

Over the last 70 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 10.77% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -50.84%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 8.629%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation

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Timeframes ending at Feb 2023			Withdrawal Rate (%)		Investment Performances
Timeframe	Period from	Period to	Perpetual	Safe	Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ]	Max Drawdown(%)
70 Years	1 Mar 1953	28 Feb 2023	8.553	8.629	10.77 [ 7.00 ]	-50.84 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009

Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:

SWR 100% Success

PWR 100% Capital Protection

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023

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	PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate				SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital	100%	75%	50%	25%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Success Rate	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	95%	90%	80%	50%
Minimum Worst Period (from)	2.581 Sep 1929	2.589 Sep 1929	2.598 Sep 1929	2.606 Sep 1929	2.615 Sep 1929	3.835 95% Succ.	4.029 90% Succ.	4.636 80% Succ.	6.068 50% Succ.
Median	6.004	6.020	6.032	6.044	6.068
Average	6.408	6.427	6.446	6.465	6.483
Maximum Best Period (from)	15.602 Jul 1932	15.615 Jul 1932	15.628 Jul 1932	15.641 Jul 1932	15.655 Jul 1932

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Key Withdrawal Rates (%)		Success Rate
Key Withdrawal Rates (%)		100%	95%	90%	80%	50%
Preserved Capital	100%	2.581	3.764	3.954	4.575	6.004
	75%	2.589	3.785	3.967	4.594	6.020
	50%	2.598	3.809	3.982	4.607	6.032
	25%	2.606	3.826	4.004	4.621	6.044
	0%	2.615	3.835	4.029	4.636	6.068

Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023

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	PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate				SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital	100%	75%	50%	25%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Success Rate	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	95%	90%	80%	50%
Minimum Worst Period (from)	2.581 Sep 1929	2.589 Sep 1929	2.598 Sep 1929	2.606 Sep 1929	2.615 Sep 1929	3.795 95% Succ.	4.427 90% Succ.	5.556 80% Succ.	7.597 50% Succ.
Median	7.530	7.548	7.565	7.583	7.597
Average	7.402	7.417	7.432	7.447	7.462
Maximum Best Period (from)	15.602 Jul 1932	15.615 Jul 1932	15.628 Jul 1932	15.641 Jul 1932	15.655 Jul 1932

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Key Withdrawal Rates (%)		Success Rate
Key Withdrawal Rates (%)		100%	95%	90%	80%	50%
Preserved Capital	100%	2.581	3.753	4.375	5.505	7.530
	75%	2.589	3.763	4.388	5.518	7.548
	50%	2.598	3.774	4.401	5.531	7.565
	25%	2.606	3.784	4.414	5.544	7.583
	0%	2.615	3.795	4.427	5.556	7.597

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023

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Withdrawal Rate	70 Years		% Fail	% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
Withdrawal Rate	% Success	Percentile	No Capital Preserved	0% Preserved	25% Preserved	50% Preserved	75% Preserved	100% Preserved
2.00 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
2.50 %	100.00	100% Succ. 2.615%	0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
3.00 %	99.59		0.41	99.59	99.59	99.59	99.59	99.59
3.50 %	98.38	95% Succ. 3.835%	1.62	98.38	98.18	98.18	98.07	98.07
4.00 %	90.88	90% Succ. 4.029%	9.12	90.88	90.27	89.87	89.56	89.16
4.50 %	82.57	80% Succ. 4.636%	17.43	82.57	82.47	82.07	81.66	81.46
5.00 %	73.15		26.85	73.15	72.64	72.44	71.94	71.43
5.50 %	61.80		38.20	61.80	61.60	61.20	60.99	60.39
6.00 %	51.77	50% Succ. 6.068%	48.23	51.77	51.27	50.66	50.25	50.15
6.50 %	43.16		56.84	43.16	42.96	42.65	42.45	42.35
7.00 %	38.10		61.90	38.10	37.99	37.79	37.49	37.08
7.50 %	32.42		67.58	32.42	31.71	31.21	30.90	30.60
8.00 %	22.49		77.51	22.49	21.99	21.78	21.58	21.07

Legend: Min% of Protected Capital

Min 0%

Min 25%

Min 50%

Min 75%

Min 100%

Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023

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Withdrawal Rate	70 Years		% Fail	% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
Withdrawal Rate	% Success	Percentile	No Capital Preserved	0% Preserved	25% Preserved	50% Preserved	75% Preserved	100% Preserved
2.00 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
2.50 %	100.00	100% Succ. 2.615%	0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
3.00 %	98.89		1.11	98.89	98.89	98.89	98.89	98.89
3.50 %	95.84	95% Succ. 3.795%	4.16	95.84	95.84	95.84	95.84	95.84
4.00 %	92.80	90% Succ. 4.427%	7.20	92.80	92.80	92.80	92.80	92.80
4.50 %	88.92		11.08	88.92	88.92	88.92	88.92	88.92
5.00 %	83.93		16.07	83.93	83.93	83.93	83.93	83.93
5.50 %	80.61	80% Succ. 5.556%	19.39	80.61	80.33	80.33	80.33	80.06
6.00 %	75.62		24.38	75.62	75.35	75.07	74.79	74.79
6.50 %	66.20		33.80	66.20	65.93	65.65	65.65	65.65
7.00 %	59.00		41.00	59.00	59.00	58.45	58.17	57.34
7.50 %	50.42	50% Succ. 7.597%	49.58	50.42	50.14	50.14	50.14	50.14
8.00 %	43.21		56.79	43.21	42.94	42.94	42.38	41.83

Legend: Min% of Protected Capital

Min 0%

Min 25%

Min 50%

Min 75%

Min 100%

Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio

For the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year 30-Year 40-Year 50-Year 60-Year 70-Year

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2% 2.5% 3% 3.5% 4% 4.5% 5%

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

The last 70 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

Withdrawals and Success Rate

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