Last Update: 30 September 2024
Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 70-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.615% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 70 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 70 years in the 91.05% of cases. In the 89.36% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 70 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio
Over the last 70 years (last update: September 2024), the portfolio has returned 10.87% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -50.84%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.31%.
Timeframes ending at Sep 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
70 Years |
1 Oct 1954 |
30 Sep 2024 | 7.247 | 7.310 |
10.87 [ 7.03 ] |
-50.84 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Sep 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.581 Sep 1929 |
2.589 Sep 1929 |
2.598 Sep 1929 |
2.606 Sep 1929 |
2.615 Sep 1929 |
|
95% |
3.769 |
3.789 |
3.810 |
3.827 |
3.842 |
||
90% |
3.973 |
3.990 |
4.004 |
4.019 |
4.033 |
||
80% |
4.593 |
4.608 |
4.623 |
4.639 |
4.659 |
||
50% Median WR |
6.039 |
6.055 |
6.082 |
6.106 |
6.125 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
15.602 Jul 1932 |
15.615 Jul 1932 |
15.628 Jul 1932 |
15.641 Jul 1932 |
15.655 Jul 1932 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.581 Sep 1929 |
2.589 Sep 1929 |
2.598 Sep 1929 |
2.606 Sep 1929 |
2.615 Sep 1929 |
|
95% |
3.753 |
3.763 |
3.774 |
3.784 |
3.795 |
||
90% |
4.375 |
4.388 |
4.401 |
4.414 |
4.427 |
||
80% |
5.505 |
5.518 |
5.531 |
5.544 |
5.556 |
||
50% Median WR |
7.542 |
7.555 |
7.569 |
7.583 |
7.600 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
15.602 Jul 1932 |
15.615 Jul 1932 |
15.628 Jul 1932 |
15.641 Jul 1932 |
15.655 Jul 1932 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.615% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
3.00 % |
99.60
|
0.40 |
99.60
|
99.60
|
99.60
|
99.60
|
|
3.50 % |
98.41
|
95% Succ. 3.842% |
1.59 |
98.21
|
98.21
|
98.11
|
98.11
|
4.00 % |
91.05
|
90% Succ. 4.033% |
8.95 |
90.46
|
90.06
|
89.76
|
89.36
|
4.50 % |
82.90
|
80% Succ. 4.659% |
17.10 |
82.80
|
82.41
|
82.01
|
81.81
|
5.00 % |
73.66
|
26.34 |
73.16
|
72.96
|
72.47
|
71.97
|
|
5.50 % |
62.52
|
37.48 |
62.33
|
61.93
|
61.73
|
61.13
|
|
6.00 % |
52.68
|
50% Succ. 6.125% |
47.32 |
52.19
|
51.59
|
51.19
|
51.09
|
6.50 % |
44.23
|
55.77 |
44.04
|
43.74
|
43.54
|
43.44
|
|
7.00 % |
39.26
|
60.74 |
39.17
|
38.97
|
38.67
|
38.27
|
|
7.50 % |
33.60
|
66.40 |
32.90
|
32.41
|
32.11
|
31.81
|
|
8.00 % |
23.66
|
76.34 |
23.06
|
22.76
|
22.56
|
22.07
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.615% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
3.00 % |
98.89
|
1.11 |
98.89
|
98.89
|
98.89
|
98.89
|
|
3.50 % |
95.84
|
95% Succ. 3.795% |
4.16 |
95.84
|
95.84
|
95.84
|
95.84
|
4.00 % |
92.80
|
90% Succ. 4.427% |
7.20 |
92.80
|
92.80
|
92.80
|
92.80
|
4.50 % |
88.92
|
11.08 |
88.92
|
88.92
|
88.92
|
88.92
|
|
5.00 % |
83.93
|
16.07 |
83.93
|
83.93
|
83.93
|
83.93
|
|
5.50 % |
80.61
|
80% Succ. 5.556% |
19.39 |
80.33
|
80.33
|
80.33
|
80.06
|
6.00 % |
75.62
|
24.38 |
75.35
|
75.07
|
74.79
|
74.79
|
|
6.50 % |
66.20
|
33.80 |
65.93
|
65.65
|
65.65
|
65.65
|
|
7.00 % |
59.00
|
41.00 |
59.00
|
58.45
|
58.17
|
57.34
|
|
7.50 % |
50.69
|
50% Succ. 7.600% |
49.31 |
50.42
|
50.42
|
50.42
|
50.42
|
8.00 % |
44.04
|
55.96 |
43.77
|
43.49
|
43.21
|
42.94
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com