Last Update: 28 February 2023
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 10.45% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -50.84%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 9.93%.
Timeframes ending at Feb 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 Mar 2003 |
28 Feb 2023 | 7.709 | 9.930 |
10.45 [ 7.77 ] |
-50.84 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 May 1901 |
0.860 Jul 1901 |
1.765 Sep 1929 |
2.546 Sep 1929 |
3.326 Sep 1929 |
5.128 95% Succ. |
5.477 90% Succ. |
6.144 80% Succ. |
8.947 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
6.375 |
7.000 |
7.650 |
8.300 |
8.947 | |||||
Average |
6.317 |
6.965 |
7.614 |
8.263 |
8.912 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
17.252 Jul 1932 |
17.778 Jul 1932 |
18.304 Jul 1932 |
18.831 Jul 1932 |
19.357 Jul 1932 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
1.967 |
2.465 |
3.305 |
6.375 |
75% |
0.860 |
2.816 |
3.309 |
4.126 |
7.000 |
|
50% |
1.765 |
3.655 |
4.018 |
4.881 |
7.650 |
|
25% |
2.546 |
4.449 |
4.762 |
5.530 |
8.300 |
|
0% |
3.326 |
5.128 |
5.477 |
6.144 |
8.947 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.205 Sep 1929 |
0.985 Sep 1929 |
1.765 Sep 1929 |
2.546 Sep 1929 |
3.326 Sep 1929 |
4.960 95% Succ. |
5.267 90% Succ. |
6.079 80% Succ. |
9.149 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
6.630 |
7.229 |
7.925 |
8.514 |
9.149 | |||||
Average |
6.615 |
7.230 |
7.846 |
8.461 |
9.077 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
17.252 Jul 1932 |
17.778 Jul 1932 |
18.304 Jul 1932 |
18.831 Jul 1932 |
19.357 Jul 1932 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.205 |
2.023 |
2.661 |
3.271 |
6.630 |
75% |
0.985 |
2.830 |
3.317 |
4.063 |
7.229 |
|
50% |
1.765 |
3.609 |
3.985 |
4.773 |
7.925 |
|
25% |
2.546 |
4.297 |
4.605 |
5.436 |
8.514 |
|
0% |
3.326 |
4.960 |
5.267 |
6.079 |
9.149 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
2.010 Apr 2000 |
2.678 Apr 2000 |
3.346 Apr 2000 |
4.014 Apr 2000 |
4.682 Apr 2000 |
5.357 95% Succ. |
5.889 90% Succ. |
7.357 80% Succ. |
9.848 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
7.110 |
7.804 |
8.462 |
9.189 |
9.848 | |||||
Average |
7.119 |
7.690 |
8.261 |
8.833 |
9.404 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
13.316 Aug 1982 |
13.891 Aug 1982 |
14.466 Aug 1982 |
15.041 Aug 1982 |
15.616 Aug 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
2.010 |
3.074 |
3.835 |
5.213 |
7.110 |
75% |
2.678 |
3.634 |
4.320 |
5.763 |
7.804 |
|
50% |
3.346 |
4.254 |
4.809 |
6.319 |
8.462 |
|
25% |
4.014 |
4.786 |
5.378 |
6.881 |
9.189 |
|
0% |
4.682 |
5.357 |
5.889 |
7.357 |
9.848 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.87
|
98.61
|
94.77
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.24
|
97.61
|
89.73
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.326% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.75
|
98.74
|
93.01
|
83.68
|
3.50 % |
99.87
|
0.13 |
99.87
|
99.24
|
96.98
|
87.78
|
78.07
|
|
4.00 % |
99.75
|
0.25 |
99.75
|
98.49
|
90.36
|
81.41
|
73.98
|
|
4.50 % |
98.93
|
1.07 |
98.93
|
94.20
|
84.18
|
75.11
|
69.38
|
|
5.00 % |
96.22
|
95% Succ. 5.128% |
3.78 |
96.22
|
86.52
|
78.39
|
69.44
|
65.09
|
5.50 % |
89.67
|
10.33 |
89.67
|
80.21
|
71.52
|
66.54
|
60.49
|
|
6.00 % |
81.92
|
80% Succ. 6.144% |
18.08 |
81.92
|
74.17
|
67.49
|
62.07
|
54.69
|
6.50 % |
75.74
|
24.26 |
75.74
|
69.94
|
64.08
|
56.96
|
48.14
|
|
7.00 % |
72.09
|
27.91 |
72.09
|
65.28
|
58.79
|
49.97
|
39.63
|
|
7.50 % |
68.56
|
31.44 |
68.56
|
60.68
|
51.98
|
42.03
|
33.52
|
|
8.00 % |
62.38
|
37.62 |
62.38
|
53.94
|
45.31
|
34.28
|
28.23
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.79
|
98.86
|
95.53
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.06
|
98.13
|
90.84
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.326% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.58
|
98.54
|
92.92
|
84.08
|
3.50 % |
99.79
|
0.21 |
99.79
|
98.75
|
96.57
|
87.72
|
77.52
|
|
4.00 % |
99.58
|
0.42 |
99.58
|
97.71
|
89.70
|
80.65
|
73.47
|
|
4.50 % |
98.23
|
95% Succ. 4.960% |
1.77 |
98.23
|
92.20
|
83.14
|
74.30
|
69.82
|
5.00 % |
93.96
|
90% Succ. 5.267% |
6.04 |
93.96
|
84.91
|
77.11
|
70.55
|
65.87
|
5.50 % |
86.16
|
13.84 |
86.16
|
78.88
|
72.74
|
67.43
|
61.91
|
|
6.00 % |
80.75
|
80% Succ. 6.079% |
19.25 |
80.75
|
74.09
|
68.26
|
63.48
|
57.96
|
6.50 % |
75.86
|
24.14 |
75.86
|
70.14
|
65.35
|
59.94
|
52.76
|
|
7.00 % |
72.01
|
27.99 |
72.01
|
66.60
|
61.60
|
53.49
|
44.33
|
|
7.50 % |
68.89
|
31.11 |
68.89
|
62.96
|
55.15
|
46.31
|
37.88
|
|
8.00 % |
63.16
|
36.84 |
63.16
|
57.02
|
49.12
|
38.61
|
32.36
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
95.57
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
96.95
|
92.24
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.78
|
92.80
|
88.64
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.682% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.06
|
93.07
|
88.64
|
85.04
|
5.00 % |
98.34
|
95% Succ. 5.357% |
1.66 |
98.34
|
93.35
|
88.64
|
85.04
|
82.27
|
5.50 % |
93.91
|
90% Succ. 5.889% |
6.09 |
93.91
|
88.37
|
85.60
|
82.27
|
78.12
|
6.00 % |
88.64
|
11.36 |
88.64
|
85.32
|
81.99
|
78.67
|
73.13
|
|
6.50 % |
86.15
|
13.85 |
86.15
|
81.44
|
78.95
|
74.79
|
66.76
|
|
7.00 % |
81.72
|
80% Succ. 7.357% |
18.28 |
81.72
|
79.22
|
76.18
|
68.98
|
52.91
|
7.50 % |
79.50
|
20.50 |
79.50
|
76.73
|
70.36
|
57.89
|
42.66
|
|
8.00 % |
77.01
|
22.99 |
77.01
|
71.19
|
62.88
|
45.15
|
34.35
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio
For the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com