US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio: 20-year retirement

Last Update: 28 February 2023

Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.326% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 99.75% of cases. In the 73.98% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 20 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio

Over the last 20 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 10.45% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -50.84%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 9.93%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Feb 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 Mar 2003
 28 Feb 2023 7.709 9.930 10.45
[ 7.77 ] 		-50.84
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
May 1901 		0.860
Jul 1901 		1.765
Sep 1929 		2.546
Sep 1929 		3.326
Sep 1929 		5.128
95% Succ. 		5.477
90% Succ. 		6.144
80% Succ. 		8.947
50% Succ.
Median 6.375
 7.000
 7.650
 8.300
 8.947
Average 6.317
 6.965
 7.614
 8.263
 8.912
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		17.252
Jul 1932 		17.778
Jul 1932 		18.304
Jul 1932 		18.831
Jul 1932 		19.357
Jul 1932
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 1.967
 2.465
 3.305
 6.375
75% 0.860
 2.816
 3.309
 4.126
 7.000
50% 1.765
 3.655
 4.018
 4.881
 7.650
25% 2.546
 4.449
 4.762
 5.530
 8.300
0% 3.326
 5.128
 5.477
 6.144
 8.947
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.205
Sep 1929 		0.985
Sep 1929 		1.765
Sep 1929 		2.546
Sep 1929 		3.326
Sep 1929 		4.960
95% Succ. 		5.267
90% Succ. 		6.079
80% Succ. 		9.149
50% Succ.
Median 6.630
 7.229
 7.925
 8.514
 9.149
Average 6.615
 7.230
 7.846
 8.461
 9.077
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		17.252
Jul 1932 		17.778
Jul 1932 		18.304
Jul 1932 		18.831
Jul 1932 		19.357
Jul 1932
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.205
 2.023
 2.661
 3.271
 6.630
75% 0.985
 2.830
 3.317
 4.063
 7.229
50% 1.765
 3.609
 3.985
 4.773
 7.925
25% 2.546
 4.297
 4.605
 5.436
 8.514
0% 3.326
 4.960
 5.267
 6.079
 9.149
Period: Mar 1973 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		2.010
Apr 2000 		2.678
Apr 2000 		3.346
Apr 2000 		4.014
Apr 2000 		4.682
Apr 2000 		5.357
95% Succ. 		5.889
90% Succ. 		7.357
80% Succ. 		9.848
50% Succ.
Median 7.110
 7.804
 8.462
 9.189
 9.848
Average 7.119
 7.690
 8.261
 8.833
 9.404
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		13.316
Aug 1982 		13.891
Aug 1982 		14.466
Aug 1982 		15.041
Aug 1982 		15.616
Aug 1982
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 2.010
 3.074
 3.835
 5.213
 7.110
75% 2.678
 3.634
 4.320
 5.763
 7.804
50% 3.346
 4.254
 4.809
 6.319
 8.462
25% 4.014
 4.786
 5.378
 6.881
 9.189
0% 4.682
 5.357
 5.889
 7.357
 9.848
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.87
98.61
94.77
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.24
97.61
89.73
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.326% 		0.00
100.00
99.75
98.74
93.01
83.68
3.50 %
99.87
0.13
99.87
99.24
96.98
87.78
78.07
4.00 %
99.75
0.25
99.75
98.49
90.36
81.41
73.98
4.50 %
98.93
1.07
98.93
94.20
84.18
75.11
69.38
5.00 %
96.22
95% Succ.
5.128% 		3.78
96.22
86.52
78.39
69.44
65.09
5.50 %
89.67
10.33
89.67
80.21
71.52
66.54
60.49
6.00 %
81.92
80% Succ.
6.144% 		18.08
81.92
74.17
67.49
62.07
54.69
6.50 %
75.74
24.26
75.74
69.94
64.08
56.96
48.14
7.00 %
72.09
27.91
72.09
65.28
58.79
49.97
39.63
7.50 %
68.56
31.44
68.56
60.68
51.98
42.03
33.52
8.00 %
62.38
37.62
62.38
53.94
45.31
34.28
28.23
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.79
98.86
95.53
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.06
98.13
90.84
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.326% 		0.00
100.00
99.58
98.54
92.92
84.08
3.50 %
99.79
0.21
99.79
98.75
96.57
87.72
77.52
4.00 %
99.58
0.42
99.58
97.71
89.70
80.65
73.47
4.50 %
98.23
95% Succ.
4.960% 		1.77
98.23
92.20
83.14
74.30
69.82
5.00 %
93.96
90% Succ.
5.267% 		6.04
93.96
84.91
77.11
70.55
65.87
5.50 %
86.16
13.84
86.16
78.88
72.74
67.43
61.91
6.00 %
80.75
80% Succ.
6.079% 		19.25
80.75
74.09
68.26
63.48
57.96
6.50 %
75.86
24.14
75.86
70.14
65.35
59.94
52.76
7.00 %
72.01
27.99
72.01
66.60
61.60
53.49
44.33
7.50 %
68.89
31.11
68.89
62.96
55.15
46.31
37.88
8.00 %
63.16
36.84
63.16
57.02
49.12
38.61
32.36
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1973 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.72
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.72
95.57
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.72
96.95
92.24
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
97.78
92.80
88.64
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.682% 		0.00
100.00
98.06
93.07
88.64
85.04
5.00 %
98.34
95% Succ.
5.357% 		1.66
98.34
93.35
88.64
85.04
82.27
5.50 %
93.91
90% Succ.
5.889% 		6.09
93.91
88.37
85.60
82.27
78.12
6.00 %
88.64
11.36
88.64
85.32
81.99
78.67
73.13
6.50 %
86.15
13.85
86.15
81.44
78.95
74.79
66.76
7.00 %
81.72
80% Succ.
7.357% 		18.28
81.72
79.22
76.18
68.98
52.91
7.50 %
79.50
20.50
79.50
76.73
70.36
57.89
42.66
8.00 %
77.01
22.99
77.01
71.19
62.88
45.15
34.35
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio

For the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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