US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio: 10-year retirement

Last Update: 30 April 2024

Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 5.426% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 10 years in the 100% of cases. In the 72.75% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 10 years of the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio

Over the last 10 years (last update: April 2024), the portfolio has returned 11.72% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -24.81%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 14.945%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Apr 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]
Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 May 2014
30 Apr 2024 8.421 14.945 11.72
[ 8.64 ]
-24.81
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2024
Period: May 1924 - Apr 2024
Period: May 1974 - Apr 2024
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
0.000
Jun 1908
0.000
Jun 1910
1.421
Jul 1911
3.563
Sep 1929
5.426
Sep 1929
95%
0.000
0.710
3.499
6.063
8.369
90%
0.000
2.159
4.461
6.861
9.025
80%
2.599
4.487
6.552
8.549
10.589
50%
Median WR
6.949
8.654
10.411
12.215
13.904
Only 1 case
Best Period (From)
20.001
Jul 1932
22.600
Jul 1932
25.199
Jul 1932
27.798
Jul 1932
30.397
Jul 1932
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
0.000
Apr 1928
0.000
Sep 1929
1.653
Mar 1999
3.563
Sep 1929
5.426
Sep 1929
95%
0.000
0.597
3.245
5.723
8.053
90%
0.000
1.839
4.161
6.566
8.902
80%
2.201
4.275
6.303
8.409
10.431
50%
Median WR
7.229
8.924
10.591
12.395
13.987
Only 1 case
Best Period (From)
20.001
Jul 1932
22.600
Jul 1932
25.199
Jul 1932
27.798
Jul 1932
30.397
Jul 1932
Swipe left to see all data
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From)
0.000
Nov 1998
0.000
Jan 1999
1.653
Mar 1999
4.875
Sep 2000
7.497
Sep 2000
95%
0.000
1.432
4.283
6.611
9.350
90%
2.287
4.425
6.582
8.483
10.279
80%
4.770
6.468
7.986
9.683
11.375
50%
Median WR
8.138
9.860
11.485
13.119
14.650
Only 1 case
Best Period (From)
16.781
Mar 2009
18.185
Mar 2009
19.589
Mar 2009
20.993
Mar 2009
22.397
Mar 2009
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2024
Period: May 1924 - Apr 2024
Period: May 1974 - Apr 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.71
90.64
82.28
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.55
88.50
80.36
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.33
86.93
78.27
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
94.94
84.83
75.54
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.94
92.56
82.74
72.75
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.77
89.77
79.90
69.49
5.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
5.426%
0.00
99.19
87.16
78.09
66.01
5.50 %
99.94
0.06
97.21
85.12
75.42
62.70
6.00 %
99.83
0.17
95.29
83.21
71.99
58.40
6.50 %
99.77
0.23
92.27
80.13
68.39
53.46
7.00 %
99.30
0.70
88.84
77.98
64.79
49.16
7.50 %
98.61
1.39
85.71
74.67
60.78
44.04
8.00 %
97.27
2.73
83.44
71.01
56.54
39.74
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.72
89.27
80.67
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.61
86.77
79.09
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
96.85
85.48
77.24
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
93.62
82.79
75.95
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.91
91.03
80.85
74.01
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.63
87.97
78.82
71.05
5.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
5.426%
0.00
98.89
85.48
77.52
67.44
5.50 %
99.91
0.09
96.21
83.35
75.76
63.92
6.00 %
99.72
0.28
93.71
81.78
72.71
60.87
6.50 %
99.63
0.37
90.29
79.00
69.38
56.61
7.00 %
98.89
1.11
87.23
77.24
65.77
52.54
7.50 %
97.78
2.22
84.74
74.01
61.79
47.36
8.00 %
95.74
4.26
82.33
70.95
58.56
42.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved
Percentile No Capital
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.58
94.80
90.44
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.75
94.18
89.60
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.51
94.18
88.98
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
95.43
92.10
88.36
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
95.01
90.85
86.90
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
94.39
89.60
83.16
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.79
94.18
89.19
77.75
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
98.34
92.93
88.36
73.60
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
95.84
91.68
83.99
71.10
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
95.01
90.02
79.21
66.11
7.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.497%
0.00
94.39
89.19
74.84
62.16
7.50 %
99.58
0.42
93.56
85.03
70.69
56.55
8.00 %
98.54
1.46
92.72
79.83
67.36
51.56
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at April 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio

For the US Stocks/Bonds 100/0 Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com