Last Update: 28 February 2023
You decided on a 4% withdrawal strategy and implemented the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio: how likely, so far, your investment would have been enough for your retirement?.
In this post, we will simulate different retirement timeframes and check the sustainability of the withdrawal rate, using actual historical series.
Success Rate of a 4% Withdrawal Strategy
Let's calculate the success rate of a 4% Withdrawal Strategy, on the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio. Would you have also saved a portion of your invested capital, at the end of your retirement?
As usual, the withdrawal is expressed as a yearly rate and refers to the initial capital. After that, the withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
The algorithm calculates the chance of success of a initial withdrawal rate, whose amount in dollars is adjusted monthly for inflation.
The algorithm tries a retirement simulation, starting at every possible month in the given period.
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too. In this website, you can find PWRs with 100% Capital Protection, or less.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money. In this website, you can find SWRs with 100% Success rate, or less.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
For instance, assuming a 20 years retirement, the algorithm will cover each 20 year timeframe starting at every possible month in the given period between the start and end month.
Here's how simulations work (each simulation is based on actual asset class returns, in US dollars):
- At the beginning, you start with a certain amount of money invested in the portfolio (i.e. the initial invested capital).
- Each month, money is withdrawn from the portfolio. The withdrawal rate is calculated based on the initial withdrawn, annualized.
- Each month, portfolio value is updated, based on the asset classes returns (dividends are supposed to be reinvested).
- Each month, portfolio is rebalanced, to reset to the original weight of the assets (applicable only if portfolio contains at least 2 assets).
- Each month, the withdrawal is adjusted for inflation (US Inflation is used for simulation).
The Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too. In this website, you can find PWRs with 100% Capital Protection, or less.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money. In this website, you can find SWRs with 100% Success rate, or less.
Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Data Sources and Credits
We are calculating the success rate over all the past N-year timeframes, on actual historical data, also focusing on how much capital (inflation adjusted) will remain after the retirement.
Swipe left to see all data
| 4% Withdrawal Rate |
% Success
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Years | 30 Years | 40 Years | 50 Years | 60 Years | 70 Years | |
| Success Rate (%) |
100.00
|
86.57
|
53.60
|
33.58
|
26.83
|
26.85
|
| Fail Rate(%) |
0.00
|
13.43
|
46.40
|
66.42
|
73.17
|
73.15
|
| Preserved Capital (infl. adj.) | % Success, on % Preserved Capital | |||||
| At least 0% |
100.00
|
86.57
|
53.60
|
33.58
|
26.83
|
26.85
|
| At least 25% |
94.39
|
63.87
|
41.87
|
29.10
|
24.93
|
24.11
|
| At least 50% |
70.32
|
47.65
|
34.67
|
26.08
|
22.04
|
21.88
|
| At least 75% |
55.51
|
41.85
|
29.03
|
21.27
|
19.69
|
19.96
|
| At least 100% |
42.41
|
37.56
|
26.43
|
17.20
|
15.27
|
18.84
|
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
| 4% Withdrawal Rate |
% Success
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Years | 30 Years | 40 Years | 50 Years | 60 Years | 70 Years | |
| Success Rate (%) |
100.00
|
92.87
|
57.28
|
27.79
|
13.93
|
16.90
|
| Fail Rate(%) |
0.00
|
7.13
|
42.72
|
72.21
|
86.07
|
83.10
|
| Preserved Capital (infl. adj.) | % Success, on % Preserved Capital | |||||
| At least 0% |
100.00
|
92.87
|
57.28
|
27.79
|
13.93
|
16.90
|
| At least 25% |
100.00
|
71.82
|
43.55
|
20.30
|
12.89
|
15.24
|
| At least 50% |
74.71
|
50.18
|
34.95
|
17.47
|
11.23
|
14.40
|
| At least 75% |
57.54
|
44.35
|
31.62
|
14.48
|
9.36
|
12.74
|
| At least 100% |
44.02
|
38.88
|
29.13
|
10.48
|
4.16
|
11.91
|
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
| 4% Withdrawal Rate |
% Success
|
|
|---|---|---|
| 20 Years | 30 Years | |
| Success Rate (%) |
100.00
|
100.00
|
| Fail Rate(%) |
0.00
|
0.00
|
| Preserved Capital (infl. adj.) | % Success, on % Preserved Capital | |
| At least 0% |
100.00
|
100.00
|
| At least 25% |
100.00
|
100.00
|
| At least 50% |
100.00
|
100.00
|
| At least 75% |
100.00
|
100.00
|
| At least 100% |
95.57
|
97.10
|
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023
4% vs Perpetual/Safe Withdrawal Rates
Let's compare a 4% withdrawal with the Safe and Perpetual Withdrawal Rates, over different timeframes.
In the table below, the guaranteed thresholds of Success/Preserved Capital are highlighted in green, elsewhere in red. To review a specific timeframe for this portfolio, click on the links in the table.
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|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Aug 1898 |
0.000 Jul 1900 |
1.546 Jul 1901 |
3.189 Jul 1901 |
4.502 Apr 1911 |
4.999 | 5.143 | 5.472 | 7.036 | |
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.365 Jul 1890 |
1.516 Jul 1890 |
2.393 Feb 1946 |
2.939 May 1901 |
3.448 May 1901 |
3.790 | 3.934 | 4.172 | 5.025 | ||
|
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.022 Oct 1941 |
1.579 Apr 1940 |
2.086 Apr 1940 |
2.593 Apr 1940 |
2.932 Feb 1946 |
3.191 | 3.308 | 3.520 | 4.063 | ||
|
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.817 Jul 1901 |
2.026 Feb 1937 |
2.224 Feb 1937 |
2.423 Feb 1937 |
2.621 Feb 1937 |
2.826 | 2.949 | 3.154 | 3.702 | ||
|
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.972 Jul 1901 |
2.117 Jul 1901 |
2.258 Feb 1937 |
2.361 Feb 1937 |
2.464 Feb 1937 |
2.650 | 2.732 | 2.940 | 3.486 | ||
|
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.916 Jul 1901 |
2.043 Jul 1901 |
2.169 Jul 1901 |
2.296 Jul 1901 |
2.388 Feb 1937 |
2.544 | 2.604 | 2.763 | 3.242 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Oct 1961 |
1.400 Oct 1961 |
2.812 Oct 1961 |
4.008 Mar 1937 |
4.932 Feb 1946 |
5.221 | 5.395 | 5.767 | 7.061 | |
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.000 May 1940 |
1.706 May 1940 |
2.393 Feb 1946 |
3.011 Feb 1946 |
3.629 Feb 1946 |
3.929 | 4.132 | 4.306 | 5.039 | ||
|
40 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.022 Oct 1941 |
1.579 Apr 1940 |
2.086 Apr 1940 |
2.593 Apr 1940 |
2.932 Feb 1946 |
3.178 | 3.294 | 3.706 | 4.117 | ||
|
50 Years Worst Period (from) |
1.823 Dec 1936 |
2.026 Feb 1937 |
2.224 Feb 1937 |
2.423 Feb 1937 |
2.621 Feb 1937 |
2.773 | 2.857 | 3.182 | 3.741 | ||
|
60 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.052 Mar 1937 |
2.156 Feb 1937 |
2.258 Feb 1937 |
2.361 Feb 1937 |
2.464 Feb 1937 |
2.616 | 2.669 | 2.944 | 3.553 | ||
|
70 Years Worst Period (from) |
2.154 Feb 1937 |
2.212 Feb 1937 |
2.271 Feb 1937 |
2.330 Feb 1937 |
2.388 Feb 1937 |
2.526 | 2.564 | 2.707 | 3.390 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Swipe left to see all data
|
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||
| Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
| Timeframes |
20 Years Worst Period (from) |
3.505 Mar 1973 |
4.101 Mar 1973 |
4.696 Mar 1973 |
5.291 Mar 1973 |
5.886 Mar 1973 |
7.009 | 7.231 | 7.462 | 8.332 | |
|
30 Years Worst Period (from) |
3.810 Mar 1973 |
4.108 Mar 1973 |
4.405 Mar 1973 |
4.703 Mar 1973 |
5.000 Mar 1973 |
5.353 | 6.079 | 6.370 | 7.121 | ||
Legend:
SWR 100% Success
95% Success
90% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
75%
50% Protection
25%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio
For the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com