Last Update: 30 September 2024
Do you have in mind a 80 years retirement, investing in the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 80-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.313% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 80 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 80 years in the 26.52% of cases. In the 20.99% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 80 years of the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio
Over the last 80 years (last update: September 2024), the portfolio has returned 7.5% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -20.75%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 2.825%.
Timeframes ending at Sep 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
80 Years |
1 Oct 1944 |
30 Sep 2024 | 2.671 | 2.825 |
7.50 [ 3.70 ] |
-20.75 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Sep 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 80-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
1.844 Jul 1901 |
1.963 Jul 1901 |
2.081 Jul 1901 |
2.197 May 1901 |
2.313 May 1901 |
|
95% |
2.111 |
2.204 |
2.288 |
2.371 |
2.458 |
||
90% |
2.229 |
2.319 |
2.389 |
2.458 |
2.519 |
||
80% |
2.362 |
2.435 |
2.500 |
2.572 |
2.647 |
||
50% Median WR |
2.790 |
2.849 |
2.926 |
2.992 |
3.052 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
5.949 Jun 1920 |
5.992 Jun 1920 |
6.034 Jun 1920 |
6.077 Jun 1920 |
6.134 Dec 1873 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
2.191 Feb 1937 |
2.229 Feb 1937 |
2.267 Feb 1937 |
2.305 Feb 1937 |
2.343 Feb 1937 |
|
95% |
2.321 |
2.355 |
2.390 |
2.425 |
2.462 |
||
90% |
2.349 |
2.383 |
2.421 |
2.457 |
2.491 |
||
80% |
2.431 |
2.463 |
2.494 |
2.531 |
2.568 |
||
50% Median WR |
2.794 |
2.831 |
2.868 |
2.906 |
2.943 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
4.324 Jun 1932 |
4.362 Jun 1932 |
4.400 Jun 1932 |
4.437 Jun 1932 |
4.475 Jun 1932 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, over 80 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 80-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 80 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 80 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.313% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.77
|
97.74
|
2.50 % |
90.86
|
90% Succ. 2.519% |
9.14 |
85.89
|
79.91
|
72.80
|
69.64
|
3.00 % |
53.16
|
50% Succ. 3.052% |
46.84 |
49.10
|
46.28
|
44.36
|
43.00
|
3.50 % |
37.58
|
62.42 |
36.34
|
35.10
|
33.75
|
32.17
|
|
4.00 % |
26.52
|
73.48 |
24.49
|
23.25
|
21.90
|
20.99
|
|
4.50 % |
16.59
|
83.41 |
15.58
|
15.12
|
13.54
|
13.21
|
|
5.00 % |
10.84
|
89.16 |
10.50
|
9.82
|
9.14
|
8.80
|
|
5.50 % |
6.66
|
93.34 |
6.09
|
5.30
|
4.51
|
3.84
|
|
6.00 % |
1.13
|
98.87 |
0.56
|
0.23
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 80 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 80 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.343% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
2.50 % |
87.14
|
80% Succ. 2.568% |
12.86 |
82.57
|
79.67
|
76.76
|
75.10
|
3.00 % |
46.89
|
53.11 |
43.15
|
43.15
|
42.74
|
42.74
|
|
3.50 % |
31.12
|
68.88 |
26.97
|
24.48
|
22.82
|
20.75
|
|
4.00 % |
14.52
|
85.48 |
14.11
|
13.28
|
11.20
|
9.96
|
|
4.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio
For the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com