All Weather Portfolio: 70-year retirement

Last Update: 28 February 2023

Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 70-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.388% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 70 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 70 years in the 26.85% of cases. In the 18.84% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 70 years of the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio

Over the last 70 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 7.71% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -20.75%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 3.694%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Feb 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
70 Years 1 Mar 1953
 28 Feb 2023 3.464 3.694 7.71
[ 4.04 ] 		-20.75
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		1.916
Jul 1901 		2.043
Jul 1901 		2.169
Jul 1901 		2.296
Jul 1901 		2.388
Feb 1937 		2.544
95% Succ. 		2.604
90% Succ. 		2.763
80% Succ. 		3.242
50% Succ.
Median 2.866
 2.945
 3.038
 3.136
 3.242
Average 3.186
 3.277
 3.369
 3.461
 3.552
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		5.986
Dec 1873 		6.073
Dec 1873 		6.161
Dec 1873 		6.248
Dec 1873 		6.335
Dec 1873
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 1.916
 2.100
 2.216
 2.335
 2.866
75% 2.043
 2.228
 2.327
 2.431
 2.945
50% 2.169
 2.348
 2.423
 2.529
 3.038
25% 2.296
 2.450
 2.518
 2.643
 3.136
0% 2.388
 2.544
 2.604
 2.763
 3.242
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		2.154
Feb 1937 		2.212
Feb 1937 		2.271
Feb 1937 		2.330
Feb 1937 		2.388
Feb 1937 		2.526
95% Succ. 		2.564
90% Succ. 		2.707
80% Succ. 		3.390
50% Succ.
Median 3.164
 3.225
 3.288
 3.340
 3.390
Average 3.103
 3.163
 3.223
 3.283
 3.343
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		4.616
Nov 1923 		4.694
Nov 1923 		4.771
Nov 1923 		4.849
Nov 1923 		4.926
Nov 1923
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 2.154
 2.283
 2.328
 2.485
 3.164
75% 2.212
 2.346
 2.389
 2.535
 3.225
50% 2.271
 2.408
 2.451
 2.586
 3.288
25% 2.330
 2.467
 2.514
 2.645
 3.340
0% 2.388
 2.526
 2.564
 2.707
 3.390
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
70 Years
% Fail
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
2.388% 		0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
98.89
2.50 %
97.97
95% Succ.
2.544% 		2.03
97.97
90.98
82.78
74.97
66.87
3.00 %
58.26
50% Succ.
3.242% 		41.74
58.26
55.52
51.37
48.43
45.90
3.50 %
40.22
59.78
40.22
38.20
35.46
32.22
28.17
4.00 %
26.85
73.15
26.85
24.11
21.88
19.96
18.84
4.50 %
16.62
83.38
16.62
15.60
13.88
12.66
11.96
5.00 %
10.54
89.46
10.54
10.03
9.83
9.22
8.61
5.50 %
7.70
92.30
7.70
6.99
5.98
5.07
4.46
6.00 %
2.63
97.37
2.63
2.03
1.11
0.61
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
70 Years
% Fail
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
2.388% 		0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
97.23
95% Succ.
2.526% 		2.77
97.23
90.03
84.21
81.44
79.78
3.00 %
60.11
50% Succ.
3.390% 		39.89
60.11
58.17
55.68
54.85
53.74
3.50 %
41.27
58.73
41.27
37.95
31.30
24.38
18.84
4.00 %
16.90
83.10
16.90
15.24
14.40
12.74
11.91
4.50 %
6.37
93.63
6.37
4.71
3.60
1.94
1.66
5.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio

For the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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