Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 70 years retirement, investing in the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 70 years of the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio
Over the last 70 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 7.8% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -20.75%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 3.786%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
70 Years |
1 May 1953 |
30 Apr 2023 | 3.560 | 3.786 |
7.80 [ 4.11 ] |
-20.75 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 70-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
1.916 Jul 1901 |
2.043 Jul 1901 |
2.169 Jul 1901 |
2.296 Jul 1901 |
2.388 Feb 1937 |
2.544 95% Succ. |
2.604 90% Succ. |
2.763 80% Succ. |
3.242 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
2.870 |
2.947 |
3.040 |
3.142 |
3.242 | |||||
Average |
3.186 |
3.278 |
3.369 |
3.461 |
3.553 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
5.986 Dec 1873 |
6.073 Dec 1873 |
6.161 Dec 1873 |
6.248 Dec 1873 |
6.335 Dec 1873 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
1.916 |
2.100 |
2.216 |
2.335 |
2.870 |
75% |
2.043 |
2.228 |
2.327 |
2.431 |
2.947 |
|
50% |
2.169 |
2.348 |
2.423 |
2.529 |
3.040 |
|
25% |
2.296 |
2.450 |
2.518 |
2.643 |
3.142 |
|
0% |
2.388 |
2.544 |
2.604 |
2.763 |
3.242 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
2.154 Feb 1937 |
2.212 Feb 1937 |
2.271 Feb 1937 |
2.330 Feb 1937 |
2.388 Feb 1937 |
2.526 95% Succ. |
2.564 90% Succ. |
2.707 80% Succ. |
3.390 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
3.164 |
3.225 |
3.288 |
3.340 |
3.390 | |||||
Average |
3.099 |
3.159 |
3.219 |
3.279 |
3.338 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
4.616 Nov 1923 |
4.694 Nov 1923 |
4.771 Nov 1923 |
4.849 Nov 1923 |
4.926 Nov 1923 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
2.154 |
2.283 |
2.328 |
2.485 |
3.164 |
75% |
2.212 |
2.346 |
2.389 |
2.535 |
3.225 |
|
50% |
2.271 |
2.408 |
2.451 |
2.586 |
3.288 |
|
25% |
2.330 |
2.467 |
2.514 |
2.645 |
3.340 |
|
0% |
2.388 |
2.526 |
2.564 |
2.707 |
3.390 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, over 70 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 70-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.388% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.89
|
2.50 % |
97.98
|
95% Succ. 2.544% |
2.02 |
97.98
|
91.00
|
82.81
|
75.03
|
66.94
|
3.00 % |
58.34
|
50% Succ. 3.242% |
41.66 |
58.34
|
55.61
|
51.47
|
48.53
|
46.01
|
3.50 % |
40.34
|
59.66 |
40.34
|
38.32
|
35.59
|
32.36
|
28.31
|
|
4.00 % |
26.79
|
73.21 |
26.79
|
24.06
|
21.84
|
19.92
|
18.81
|
|
4.50 % |
16.58
|
83.42 |
16.58
|
15.57
|
13.85
|
12.64
|
11.93
|
|
5.00 % |
10.52
|
89.48 |
10.52
|
10.01
|
9.81
|
9.20
|
8.59
|
|
5.50 % |
7.68
|
92.32 |
7.68
|
6.98
|
5.97
|
5.06
|
4.45
|
|
6.00 % |
2.63
|
97.37 |
2.63
|
2.02
|
1.11
|
0.61
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
70 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 70 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.388% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
2.50 % |
97.23
|
95% Succ. 2.526% |
2.77 |
97.23
|
90.03
|
84.21
|
81.44
|
79.78
|
3.00 % |
60.11
|
50% Succ. 3.390% |
39.89 |
60.11
|
58.17
|
55.68
|
54.85
|
53.74
|
3.50 % |
41.27
|
58.73 |
41.27
|
37.95
|
31.30
|
24.38
|
18.84
|
|
4.00 % |
16.34
|
83.66 |
16.34
|
14.68
|
13.85
|
12.19
|
11.36
|
|
4.50 % |
5.82
|
94.18 |
5.82
|
4.43
|
3.60
|
1.94
|
1.66
|
|
5.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
5.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
6.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
7.50 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.00
|
100.00 |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio
For the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com