All Weather Portfolio: 60-year retirement

Last Update: 28 February 2023

Do you have in mind a 60 years retirement, investing in the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 60-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.464% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 60 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 60 years in the 26.83% of cases. In the 15.27% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 60 years of the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio

Over the last 60 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 8.12% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -20.75%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 3.618%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at Feb 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]
Max
Drawdown(%)
60 Years 1 Mar 1963
28 Feb 2023 3.290 3.618 8.12
[ 4.08 ]
-20.75
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 60-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from)
1.972
Jul 1901
2.117
Jul 1901
2.258
Feb 1937
2.361
Feb 1937
2.464
Feb 1937
2.650
95% Succ.
2.732
90% Succ.
2.940
80% Succ.
3.486
50% Succ.
Median 3.013
3.136
3.264
3.380
3.486
Average 3.185
3.314
3.442
3.571
3.700
Maximum
Best Period (from)
6.097
Dec 1873
6.215
Dec 1873
6.333
Dec 1873
6.451
Jun 1920
6.647
Jun 1920
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%)
Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 1.972
2.156
2.255
2.370
3.013
75% 2.117
2.297
2.371
2.519
3.136
50% 2.258
2.424
2.489
2.659
3.264
25% 2.361
2.539
2.613
2.802
3.380
0% 2.464
2.650
2.732
2.940
3.486
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from)
2.052
Mar 1937
2.156
Feb 1937
2.258
Feb 1937
2.361
Feb 1937
2.464
Feb 1937
2.616
95% Succ.
2.669
90% Succ.
2.944
80% Succ.
3.553
50% Succ.
Median 3.201
3.290
3.374
3.461
3.553
Average 3.084
3.185
3.286
3.387
3.488
Maximum
Best Period (from)
4.387
Oct 1923
4.582
Nov 1923
4.781
Nov 1923
4.980
Nov 1923
5.178
Nov 1923
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%)
Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 2.052
2.249
2.313
2.521
3.201
75% 2.156
2.340
2.402
2.632
3.290
50% 2.258
2.427
2.492
2.744
3.374
25% 2.361
2.515
2.582
2.840
3.461
0% 2.464
2.616
2.669
2.944
3.553
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, over 60 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 60-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
60 Years
% Fail
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved
0%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
2.464%
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.55
2.50 %
99.73
95% Succ.
2.650%
0.27
99.73
97.47
89.61
81.21
68.83
3.00 %
73.62
50% Succ.
3.486%
26.38
73.62
63.14
58.54
55.19
50.86
3.50 %
49.05
50.95
49.05
42.91
36.59
30.98
27.64
4.00 %
26.83
73.17
26.83
24.93
22.04
19.69
15.27
4.50 %
17.89
82.11
17.89
15.09
13.01
11.02
10.03
5.00 %
11.29
88.71
11.29
9.85
9.30
8.58
7.95
5.50 %
8.13
91.87
8.13
7.23
6.41
4.79
3.97
6.00 %
4.70
95.30
4.70
3.43
1.99
0.90
0.18
6.50 %
0.45
99.55
0.45
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
60 Years
% Fail
% Success over 60 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved
0%
Preserved
25%
Preserved
50%
Preserved
75%
Preserved
100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
2.464%
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
99.38
95% Succ.
2.616%
0.62
99.38
96.47
89.60
85.03
81.50
3.00 %
74.84
25.16
74.84
69.65
66.74
66.11
63.20
3.50 %
54.05
50% Succ.
3.553%
45.95
54.05
45.32
33.89
22.25
16.01
4.00 %
13.93
86.07
13.93
12.89
11.23
9.36
4.16
4.50 %
8.73
91.27
8.73
5.20
2.70
0.83
0.00
5.00 %
1.46
98.54
1.46
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio

For the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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