Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 40 years retirement, investing in the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 40 years of the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio
Over the last 40 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 8.31% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -20.75%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.259%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
40 Years |
1 May 1983 |
30 Apr 2023 | 6.343 | 7.259 |
8.31 [ 5.31 ] |
-20.75 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 40-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
1.022 Oct 1941 |
1.579 Apr 1940 |
2.086 Apr 1940 |
2.593 Apr 1940 |
2.932 Feb 1946 |
3.191 95% Succ. |
3.308 90% Succ. |
3.520 80% Succ. |
4.063 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
3.039 |
3.306 |
3.572 |
3.815 |
4.063 | |||||
Average |
3.390 |
3.691 |
3.993 |
4.295 |
4.597 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
8.801 Jul 1982 |
9.013 Jul 1982 |
9.225 Jul 1982 |
9.437 Jul 1982 |
9.649 Jul 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
1.022 |
1.598 |
1.966 |
2.297 |
3.039 |
75% |
1.579 |
2.029 |
2.321 |
2.579 |
3.306 |
|
50% |
2.086 |
2.432 |
2.659 |
2.897 |
3.572 |
|
25% |
2.593 |
2.828 |
2.990 |
3.215 |
3.815 |
|
0% |
2.932 |
3.191 |
3.308 |
3.520 |
4.063 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
1.022 Oct 1941 |
1.579 Apr 1940 |
2.086 Apr 1940 |
2.593 Apr 1940 |
2.932 Feb 1946 |
3.178 95% Succ. |
3.294 90% Succ. |
3.706 80% Succ. |
4.117 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
3.188 |
3.416 |
3.661 |
3.897 |
4.117 | |||||
Average |
3.451 |
3.727 |
4.003 |
4.278 |
4.554 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
8.801 Jul 1982 |
9.013 Jul 1982 |
9.225 Jul 1982 |
9.437 Jul 1982 |
9.649 Jul 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
1.022 |
1.439 |
1.620 |
2.081 |
3.188 |
75% |
1.579 |
1.882 |
2.048 |
2.507 |
3.416 |
|
50% |
2.086 |
2.313 |
2.460 |
2.938 |
3.661 |
|
25% |
2.593 |
2.732 |
2.873 |
3.352 |
3.897 |
|
0% |
2.932 |
3.178 |
3.294 |
3.706 |
4.117 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, over 40 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 40-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
40 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
95.48
|
89.40
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.932% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.00
|
84.06
|
70.94
|
3.00 % |
99.78
|
95% Succ. 3.191% |
0.22 |
99.78
|
89.70
|
75.24
|
62.94
|
51.89
|
3.50 % |
81.17
|
80% Succ. 3.520% |
18.83 |
81.17
|
66.12
|
53.89
|
39.58
|
31.28
|
4.00 % |
53.67
|
50% Succ. 4.063% |
46.33 |
53.67
|
41.96
|
34.77
|
29.13
|
26.54
|
4.50 % |
38.84
|
61.16 |
38.84
|
32.77
|
26.76
|
23.13
|
20.90
|
|
5.00 % |
30.54
|
69.46 |
30.54
|
24.54
|
22.09
|
18.68
|
15.57
|
|
5.50 % |
23.35
|
76.65 |
23.35
|
19.13
|
14.83
|
12.68
|
11.56
|
|
6.00 % |
15.57
|
84.43 |
15.57
|
13.05
|
11.34
|
9.86
|
7.86
|
|
6.50 % |
11.56
|
88.44 |
11.56
|
9.79
|
8.15
|
6.23
|
4.45
|
|
7.00 % |
8.38
|
91.62 |
8.38
|
6.67
|
4.30
|
2.52
|
1.70
|
|
7.50 % |
4.37
|
95.63 |
4.37
|
2.37
|
1.56
|
1.33
|
1.19
|
|
8.00 % |
1.41
|
98.59 |
1.41
|
1.19
|
1.11
|
0.96
|
0.82
|
Withdrawal Rate |
40 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
91.54
|
81.14
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 2.932% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
88.77
|
80.03
|
77.53
|
3.00 % |
99.58
|
95% Succ. 3.178% |
0.42 |
99.58
|
87.38
|
78.92
|
75.45
|
66.57
|
3.50 % |
85.16
|
80% Succ. 3.706% |
14.84 |
85.16
|
75.59
|
63.80
|
43.41
|
35.23
|
4.00 % |
57.28
|
50% Succ. 4.117% |
42.72 |
57.28
|
43.55
|
34.95
|
31.62
|
29.13
|
4.50 % |
38.83
|
61.17 |
38.83
|
31.07
|
27.32
|
23.16
|
19.97
|
|
5.00 % |
26.49
|
73.51 |
26.49
|
23.44
|
21.50
|
17.34
|
13.59
|
|
5.50 % |
21.36
|
78.64 |
21.36
|
16.23
|
11.65
|
9.43
|
8.74
|
|
6.00 % |
11.51
|
88.49 |
11.51
|
9.15
|
7.77
|
6.80
|
5.96
|
|
6.50 % |
7.21
|
92.79 |
7.21
|
5.96
|
5.55
|
5.27
|
4.58
|
|
7.00 % |
5.27
|
94.73 |
5.27
|
4.72
|
3.88
|
3.33
|
3.19
|
|
7.50 % |
3.61
|
96.39 |
3.61
|
3.05
|
2.91
|
2.50
|
2.22
|
|
8.00 % |
2.50
|
97.50 |
2.50
|
2.22
|
2.08
|
1.80
|
1.53
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio
For the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com