All Weather Portfolio: 30-year retirement

Last Update: 30 April 2023

Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.448% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 86.59% of cases. In the 37.64% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 30 years of the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio

Over the last 30 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 7.03% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -20.75%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.788%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
Swipe left to see all data
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
30 Years 1 May 1993
 30 Apr 2023 4.925 6.788 7.03
[ 4.40 ] 		-20.75
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.365
Jul 1890 		1.516
Jul 1890 		2.393
Feb 1946 		2.939
May 1901 		3.448
May 1901 		3.790
95% Succ. 		3.934
90% Succ. 		4.172
80% Succ. 		5.028
50% Succ.
Median 2.936
 3.352
 3.837
 4.347
 5.028
Average 3.603
 4.087
 4.571
 5.055
 5.540
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		9.426
Jul 1982 		9.717
Jul 1982 		10.008
Jul 1982 		10.299
Jul 1982 		10.590
Jul 1982
Swipe left to see all data
Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.365
 1.353
 1.529
 1.996
 2.936
75% 1.516
 2.033
 2.176
 2.559
 3.352
50% 2.393
 2.682
 2.829
 3.150
 3.837
25% 2.939
 3.255
 3.411
 3.656
 4.347
0% 3.448
 3.790
 3.934
 4.172
 5.028
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		1.000
May 1940 		1.706
May 1940 		2.393
Feb 1946 		3.011
Feb 1946 		3.629
Feb 1946 		3.929
95% Succ. 		4.132
90% Succ. 		4.306
80% Succ. 		5.039
50% Succ.
Median 3.202
 3.676
 4.009
 4.490
 5.039
Average 3.738
 4.197
 4.656
 5.115
 5.574
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		9.426
Jul 1982 		9.717
Jul 1982 		10.008
Jul 1982 		10.299
Jul 1982 		10.590
Jul 1982
Swipe left to see all data
Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 1.000
 1.472
 1.718
 2.102
 3.202
75% 1.706
 2.096
 2.346
 2.716
 3.676
50% 2.393
 2.709
 2.952
 3.336
 4.009
25% 3.011
 3.327
 3.570
 3.848
 4.490
0% 3.629
 3.929
 4.132
 4.306
 5.039
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
96.05
79.78
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
98.71
82.30
66.44
3.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.448% 		0.00
100.00
99.80
84.48
65.76
48.47
3.50 %
99.86
95% Succ.
3.790% 		0.14
99.86
86.93
63.04
47.92
41.93
4.00 %
86.59
80% Succ.
4.172% 		13.41
86.59
63.92
47.72
41.93
37.64
4.50 %
63.72
36.28
63.72
48.20
41.66
36.90
31.18
5.00 %
50.65
50% Succ.
5.028% 		49.35
50.65
40.91
36.28
31.04
23.76
5.50 %
40.84
59.16
40.84
35.94
30.57
22.33
18.24
6.00 %
35.40
64.60
35.40
29.14
21.85
16.34
12.32
6.50 %
28.66
71.34
28.66
20.97
14.91
11.64
9.12
7.00 %
19.88
80.12
19.88
13.48
11.16
8.71
6.26
7.50 %
12.53
87.47
12.53
10.55
7.83
4.97
2.52
8.00 %
9.39
90.61
9.39
7.35
3.88
1.91
1.36
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
96.31
83.95
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
98.45
87.99
70.27
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
89.42
72.29
53.39
3.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
3.629% 		0.00
100.00
90.84
70.51
51.96
44.23
4.00 %
92.87
90% Succ.
4.132% 		7.13
92.87
71.82
50.18
44.35
38.88
4.50 %
69.44
30.56
69.44
49.82
43.64
37.46
33.41
5.00 %
51.01
50% Succ.
5.039% 		48.99
51.01
42.09
36.03
33.17
26.87
5.50 %
40.55
59.45
40.55
35.43
32.22
24.26
19.02
6.00 %
34.60
65.40
34.60
29.73
23.19
15.81
9.99
6.50 %
28.66
71.34
28.66
21.28
13.32
9.04
7.85
7.00 %
19.02
80.98
19.02
11.06
8.44
7.61
6.66
7.50 %
9.39
90.61
9.39
7.97
6.90
5.59
4.16
8.00 %
7.13
92.87
7.13
6.42
4.52
3.33
2.38
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio

For the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

Share this page