Last Update: 30 November 2024
Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?
Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 3.448% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.
With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 86.76% of cases. In the 38.44% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 30 years of the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio
Over the last 30 years (last update: November 2024), the portfolio has returned 7.43% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -20.75%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.485%.
Timeframes ending at Nov 2024 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
30 Years |
1 Dec 1994 |
30 Nov 2024 | 5.646 | 7.485 |
7.43 [ 4.79 ] |
-20.75 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
0.365 Jul 1890 |
1.516 Jul 1890 |
2.393 Feb 1946 |
2.939 May 1901 |
3.448 May 1901 |
|
95% |
1.358 |
2.036 |
2.693 |
3.257 |
3.795 |
||
90% |
1.532 |
2.180 |
2.835 |
3.415 |
3.939 |
||
80% |
2.001 |
2.567 |
3.153 |
3.668 |
4.175 |
||
50% Median WR |
2.965 |
3.382 |
3.883 |
4.430 |
5.052 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
9.426 Jul 1982 |
9.717 Jul 1982 |
10.008 Jul 1982 |
10.299 Jul 1982 |
10.590 Jul 1982 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
1.000 May 1940 |
1.706 May 1940 |
2.393 Feb 1946 |
3.011 Feb 1946 |
3.629 Feb 1946 |
|
95% |
1.472 |
2.096 |
2.709 |
3.327 |
3.929 |
||
90% |
1.718 |
2.346 |
2.952 |
3.570 |
4.132 |
||
80% |
2.102 |
2.716 |
3.336 |
3.848 |
4.306 |
||
50% Median WR |
3.202 |
3.676 |
4.009 |
4.490 |
5.039 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
9.426 Jul 1982 |
9.717 Jul 1982 |
10.008 Jul 1982 |
10.299 Jul 1982 |
10.590 Jul 1982 |
WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
0% Preserved |
|||
Success |
100% Worst Period (From) |
4.425 Nov 1993 |
4.950 Nov 1993 |
5.444 Jul 1975 |
5.714 Jul 1975 |
5.985 Jul 1975 |
|
95% |
4.902 |
5.233 |
5.562 |
5.863 |
6.140 |
||
90% |
5.022 |
5.349 |
5.694 |
6.002 |
6.297 |
||
80% |
5.201 |
5.598 |
5.957 |
6.310 |
6.699 |
||
50% Median WR |
5.778 |
6.122 |
6.459 |
6.804 |
7.152 |
||
Only 1 case Best Period (From) |
9.426 Jul 1982 |
9.717 Jul 1982 |
10.008 Jul 1982 |
10.299 Jul 1982 |
10.590 Jul 1982 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.10
|
80.04
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.72
|
82.53
|
66.87
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.448% |
0.00 |
99.80
|
84.68
|
66.20
|
49.13
|
3.50 % |
99.87
|
95% Succ. 3.795% |
0.13 |
87.10
|
63.51
|
48.59
|
42.67
|
4.00 % |
86.76
|
80% Succ. 4.175% |
13.24 |
64.38
|
48.39
|
42.67
|
38.44
|
4.50 % |
64.18
|
35.82 |
48.86
|
42.41
|
37.70
|
31.99
|
|
5.00 % |
51.28
|
50% Succ. 5.052% |
48.72 |
41.67
|
37.10
|
31.85
|
24.06
|
5.50 % |
41.60
|
58.40 |
36.76
|
31.38
|
22.65
|
18.15
|
|
6.00 % |
36.22
|
63.78 |
30.04
|
22.18
|
16.20
|
12.16
|
|
6.50 % |
29.50
|
70.50 |
21.30
|
14.78
|
11.49
|
9.01
|
|
7.00 % |
20.23
|
79.77 |
13.37
|
11.02
|
8.60
|
6.18
|
|
7.50 % |
12.37
|
87.63 |
10.42
|
7.73
|
4.91
|
2.49
|
|
8.00 % |
9.27
|
90.73 |
7.26
|
3.83
|
1.88
|
1.34
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.31
|
83.95
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.45
|
87.99
|
70.27
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
89.42
|
72.29
|
53.39
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.629% |
0.00 |
90.84
|
70.51
|
51.96
|
44.23
|
4.00 % |
92.87
|
90% Succ. 4.132% |
7.13 |
71.82
|
50.18
|
44.35
|
38.88
|
4.50 % |
69.44
|
30.56 |
49.82
|
43.64
|
37.46
|
33.29
|
|
5.00 % |
51.01
|
50% Succ. 5.039% |
48.99 |
42.09
|
36.03
|
33.06
|
26.52
|
5.50 % |
40.55
|
59.45 |
35.43
|
32.10
|
23.90
|
19.26
|
|
6.00 % |
34.60
|
65.40 |
29.73
|
22.59
|
15.93
|
9.99
|
|
6.50 % |
28.54
|
71.46 |
20.33
|
13.44
|
9.04
|
7.85
|
|
7.00 % |
18.07
|
81.93 |
11.18
|
8.44
|
7.61
|
6.66
|
|
7.50 % |
9.16
|
90.84 |
7.97
|
6.90
|
5.59
|
4.16
|
|
8.00 % |
7.13
|
92.87 |
6.42
|
4.52
|
3.33
|
2.38
|
Withdrawal Rate |
% Success over 30 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
|
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
At least 0% Capital Preserved |
Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.59
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.59
|
90.87
|
|
5.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.985% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
97.51
|
82.57
|
66.80
|
6.00 % |
99.17
|
95% Succ. 6.140% |
0.83 |
90.46
|
77.59
|
55.60
|
34.85
|
6.50 % |
86.31
|
80% Succ. 6.699% |
13.69 |
70.12
|
46.89
|
31.54
|
27.39
|
7.00 % |
62.24
|
50% Succ. 7.152% |
37.76 |
39.00
|
29.46
|
26.56
|
23.24
|
7.50 % |
31.95
|
68.05 |
27.80
|
24.07
|
19.50
|
14.52
|
|
8.00 % |
24.90
|
75.10 |
22.41
|
15.77
|
11.62
|
8.30
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio
For the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
80-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com