All Weather Portfolio: 20-year retirement

Last Update: 30 April 2023

Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 4.502% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 100% of cases. In the 42.48% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 20 years of the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio

Over the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 6.49% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -20.75%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 8.026%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Apr 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 May 2003
 30 Apr 2023 4.257 8.026 6.49
[ 3.85 ] 		-20.75
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Aug 1898 		0.000
Jul 1900 		1.546
Jul 1901 		3.189
Jul 1901 		4.502
Apr 1911 		4.999
95% Succ. 		5.143
90% Succ. 		5.472
80% Succ. 		7.037
50% Succ.
Median 3.417
 4.282
 5.160
 6.107
 7.037
Average 3.764
 4.602
 5.470
 6.338
 7.206
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		10.076
Jul 1982 		10.712
Jul 1982 		11.348
Jul 1982 		11.983
Jul 1982 		12.619
Jul 1982
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.414
 1.136
 1.655
 3.417
75% 0.000
 1.608
 2.149
 2.641
 4.282
50% 1.546
 2.797
 3.159
 3.620
 5.160
25% 3.189
 3.960
 4.166
 4.505
 6.107
0% 4.502
 4.999
 5.143
 5.472
 7.037
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Oct 1961 		1.400
Oct 1961 		2.812
Oct 1961 		4.008
Mar 1937 		4.932
Feb 1946 		5.221
95% Succ. 		5.395
90% Succ. 		5.767
80% Succ. 		7.061
50% Succ.
Median 3.503
 4.355
 5.208
 6.168
 7.061
Average 3.826
 4.681
 5.537
 6.392
 7.247
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		10.076
Jul 1982 		10.712
Jul 1982 		11.348
Jul 1982 		11.983
Jul 1982 		12.619
Jul 1982
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 1.202
 1.414
 1.740
 3.503
75% 1.400
 2.210
 2.436
 2.799
 4.355
50% 2.812
 3.214
 3.415
 3.860
 5.208
25% 4.008
 4.234
 4.410
 4.826
 6.168
0% 4.932
 5.221
 5.395
 5.767
 7.061
Period: May 1973 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		3.585
Jun 1973 		4.174
Jun 1973 		4.763
Jun 1973 		5.352
Jun 1973 		5.941
Jun 1973 		7.061
95% Succ. 		7.248
90% Succ. 		7.464
80% Succ. 		8.332
50% Succ.
Median 5.666
 6.321
 6.983
 7.674
 8.332
Average 5.852
 6.521
 7.191
 7.861
 8.530
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		10.076
Jul 1982 		10.712
Jul 1982 		11.348
Jul 1982 		11.983
Jul 1982 		12.619
Jul 1982
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 3.585
 4.180
 4.404
 4.688
 5.666
75% 4.174
 4.959
 5.171
 5.363
 6.321
50% 4.763
 5.736
 5.901
 6.100
 6.983
25% 5.352
 6.436
 6.579
 6.768
 7.674
0% 5.941
 7.061
 7.248
 7.464
 8.332
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.06
91.57
72.75
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
97.36
83.51
64.82
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
92.64
72.81
56.20
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.43
82.13
60.92
48.52
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
94.40
70.36
55.57
42.48
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.502% 		0.00
100.00
80.37
59.79
46.38
38.45
5.00 %
94.78
90% Succ.
5.143% 		5.22
94.78
68.97
53.74
41.16
31.47
5.50 %
79.23
20.77
79.23
58.40
45.50
35.49
25.36
6.00 %
69.35
30.65
69.35
52.30
38.14
28.38
18.44
6.50 %
57.90
42.10
57.90
44.24
31.72
21.71
12.33
7.00 %
51.10
50% Succ.
7.037% 		48.90
51.10
35.31
24.48
13.85
9.69
7.50 %
40.15
59.85
40.15
28.19
17.24
10.51
7.43
8.00 %
32.79
67.21
32.79
20.14
11.45
8.24
4.34
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
97.71
73.88
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
87.83
65.87
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.06
75.03
57.54
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
87.62
62.85
50.05
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
74.71
57.54
44.02
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.932% 		0.00
100.00
87.30
62.12
47.45
38.81
5.00 %
99.90
95% Succ.
5.221% 		0.10
99.90
73.36
54.84
42.77
31.84
5.50 %
86.37
80% Succ.
5.767% 		13.63
86.37
59.94
46.83
34.76
24.97
6.00 %
73.57
26.43
73.57
52.65
38.50
28.10
16.55
6.50 %
59.11
40.89
59.11
45.47
30.91
20.60
8.95
7.00 %
51.30
50% Succ.
7.061% 		48.70
51.30
34.96
23.31
10.93
6.87
7.50 %
40.27
59.73
40.27
27.37
14.98
7.28
5.41
8.00 %
32.15
67.85
32.15
18.42
8.01
5.62
3.75
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: May 1973 - Apr 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
96.12
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
97.51
86.98
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
98.06
94.74
71.47
5.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
5.941% 		0.00
100.00
98.34
96.40
76.73
55.40
6.00 %
99.17
0.83
99.17
96.68
84.21
61.77
34.63
6.50 %
96.68
3.32
96.68
93.07
66.20
43.49
22.16
7.00 %
95.57
95% Succ.
7.061% 		4.43
95.57
74.52
49.03
24.65
18.28
7.50 %
78.67
21.33
78.67
56.23
28.81
19.11
14.40
8.00 %
66.20
33.80
66.20
36.29
19.39
14.96
9.97
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio

For the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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