Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 6.49% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -20.75%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 8.026%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 May 2003 |
30 Apr 2023 | 4.257 | 8.026 |
6.49 [ 3.85 ] |
-20.75 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Aug 1898 |
0.000 Jul 1900 |
1.546 Jul 1901 |
3.189 Jul 1901 |
4.502 Apr 1911 |
4.999 95% Succ. |
5.143 90% Succ. |
5.472 80% Succ. |
7.037 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
3.417 |
4.282 |
5.160 |
6.107 |
7.037 | |||||
Average |
3.764 |
4.602 |
5.470 |
6.338 |
7.206 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
10.076 Jul 1982 |
10.712 Jul 1982 |
11.348 Jul 1982 |
11.983 Jul 1982 |
12.619 Jul 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.414 |
1.136 |
1.655 |
3.417 |
75% |
0.000 |
1.608 |
2.149 |
2.641 |
4.282 |
|
50% |
1.546 |
2.797 |
3.159 |
3.620 |
5.160 |
|
25% |
3.189 |
3.960 |
4.166 |
4.505 |
6.107 |
|
0% |
4.502 |
4.999 |
5.143 |
5.472 |
7.037 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Oct 1961 |
1.400 Oct 1961 |
2.812 Oct 1961 |
4.008 Mar 1937 |
4.932 Feb 1946 |
5.221 95% Succ. |
5.395 90% Succ. |
5.767 80% Succ. |
7.061 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
3.503 |
4.355 |
5.208 |
6.168 |
7.061 | |||||
Average |
3.826 |
4.681 |
5.537 |
6.392 |
7.247 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
10.076 Jul 1982 |
10.712 Jul 1982 |
11.348 Jul 1982 |
11.983 Jul 1982 |
12.619 Jul 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
1.202 |
1.414 |
1.740 |
3.503 |
75% |
1.400 |
2.210 |
2.436 |
2.799 |
4.355 |
|
50% |
2.812 |
3.214 |
3.415 |
3.860 |
5.208 |
|
25% |
4.008 |
4.234 |
4.410 |
4.826 |
6.168 |
|
0% |
4.932 |
5.221 |
5.395 |
5.767 |
7.061 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
3.585 Jun 1973 |
4.174 Jun 1973 |
4.763 Jun 1973 |
5.352 Jun 1973 |
5.941 Jun 1973 |
7.061 95% Succ. |
7.248 90% Succ. |
7.464 80% Succ. |
8.332 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
5.666 |
6.321 |
6.983 |
7.674 |
8.332 | |||||
Average |
5.852 |
6.521 |
7.191 |
7.861 |
8.530 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
10.076 Jul 1982 |
10.712 Jul 1982 |
11.348 Jul 1982 |
11.983 Jul 1982 |
12.619 Jul 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
3.585 |
4.180 |
4.404 |
4.688 |
5.666 |
75% |
4.174 |
4.959 |
5.171 |
5.363 |
6.321 |
|
50% |
4.763 |
5.736 |
5.901 |
6.100 |
6.983 |
|
25% |
5.352 |
6.436 |
6.579 |
6.768 |
7.674 |
|
0% |
5.941 |
7.061 |
7.248 |
7.464 |
8.332 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.06
|
91.57
|
72.75
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.36
|
83.51
|
64.82
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
92.64
|
72.81
|
56.20
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.43
|
82.13
|
60.92
|
48.52
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
94.40
|
70.36
|
55.57
|
42.48
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.502% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
80.37
|
59.79
|
46.38
|
38.45
|
5.00 % |
94.78
|
90% Succ. 5.143% |
5.22 |
94.78
|
68.97
|
53.74
|
41.16
|
31.47
|
5.50 % |
79.23
|
20.77 |
79.23
|
58.40
|
45.50
|
35.49
|
25.36
|
|
6.00 % |
69.35
|
30.65 |
69.35
|
52.30
|
38.14
|
28.38
|
18.44
|
|
6.50 % |
57.90
|
42.10 |
57.90
|
44.24
|
31.72
|
21.71
|
12.33
|
|
7.00 % |
51.10
|
50% Succ. 7.037% |
48.90 |
51.10
|
35.31
|
24.48
|
13.85
|
9.69
|
7.50 % |
40.15
|
59.85 |
40.15
|
28.19
|
17.24
|
10.51
|
7.43
|
|
8.00 % |
32.79
|
67.21 |
32.79
|
20.14
|
11.45
|
8.24
|
4.34
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.71
|
73.88
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
87.83
|
65.87
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.06
|
75.03
|
57.54
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
87.62
|
62.85
|
50.05
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
74.71
|
57.54
|
44.02
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.932% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
87.30
|
62.12
|
47.45
|
38.81
|
5.00 % |
99.90
|
95% Succ. 5.221% |
0.10 |
99.90
|
73.36
|
54.84
|
42.77
|
31.84
|
5.50 % |
86.37
|
80% Succ. 5.767% |
13.63 |
86.37
|
59.94
|
46.83
|
34.76
|
24.97
|
6.00 % |
73.57
|
26.43 |
73.57
|
52.65
|
38.50
|
28.10
|
16.55
|
|
6.50 % |
59.11
|
40.89 |
59.11
|
45.47
|
30.91
|
20.60
|
8.95
|
|
7.00 % |
51.30
|
50% Succ. 7.061% |
48.70 |
51.30
|
34.96
|
23.31
|
10.93
|
6.87
|
7.50 % |
40.27
|
59.73 |
40.27
|
27.37
|
14.98
|
7.28
|
5.41
|
|
8.00 % |
32.15
|
67.85 |
32.15
|
18.42
|
8.01
|
5.62
|
3.75
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.12
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.51
|
86.98
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.06
|
94.74
|
71.47
|
|
5.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.941% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.34
|
96.40
|
76.73
|
55.40
|
6.00 % |
99.17
|
0.83 |
99.17
|
96.68
|
84.21
|
61.77
|
34.63
|
|
6.50 % |
96.68
|
3.32 |
96.68
|
93.07
|
66.20
|
43.49
|
22.16
|
|
7.00 % |
95.57
|
95% Succ. 7.061% |
4.43 |
95.57
|
74.52
|
49.03
|
24.65
|
18.28
|
7.50 % |
78.67
|
21.33 |
78.67
|
56.23
|
28.81
|
19.11
|
14.40
|
|
8.00 % |
66.20
|
33.80 |
66.20
|
36.29
|
19.39
|
14.96
|
9.97
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio
For the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com