All Weather Portfolio: 10-year retirement

Last Update: 30 September 2024

Do you have in mind a 10 years retirement, investing in the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 10-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 7.495% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 10 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 10 years in the 100% of cases. In the 48.55% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 10 years of the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio

Over the last 10 years (last update: September 2024), the portfolio has returned 5.22% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -20.75%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 11.529%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Sep 2024
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
10 Years 1 Oct 2014
 30 Sep 2024 2.361 11.529 5.22
[ 2.32 ] 		-20.75
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at August 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Sep 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 10-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Sep 2024
Period: Oct 1924 - Sep 2024
Period: Oct 1974 - Sep 2024
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Jan 1908 		0.000
Feb 1909 		1.601
Jul 1911 		4.829
Jul 1911 		7.495
Feb 1916
95%
 0.000
 1.752
 3.982
 6.643
 8.990
90%
 0.077
 2.492
 4.872
 7.325
 9.864
80%
 1.065
 3.400
 5.758
 8.124
 10.436
50%
Median WR 		3.925
 5.939
 7.966
 10.013
 12.083
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		12.003
Jul 1982 		13.643
Jul 1982 		15.282
Jul 1982 		16.922
Jul 1982 		18.562
Jul 1982
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		0.000
Dec 1936 		1.017
Jul 1972 		3.885
Jul 1972 		6.529
Feb 1946 		8.501
Feb 1946
95%
 0.000
 2.377
 4.823
 7.245
 9.661
90%
 0.450
 2.864
 5.187
 7.556
 9.965
80%
 1.143
 3.452
 5.877
 8.310
 10.570
50%
Median WR 		3.882
 5.894
 7.932
 9.966
 12.070
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		12.003
Jul 1982 		13.643
Jul 1982 		15.282
Jul 1982 		16.922
Jul 1982 		18.562
Jul 1982
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WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
100%
Preserved		 75%
Preserved		 50%
Preserved		 25%
Preserved		 0%
Preserved
Success 100%
Worst Period (From) 		1.035
Nov 2013 		3.758
Nov 2013 		6.466
Oct 2012 		8.498
Jul 1975 		10.257
Jan 1977
95%
 2.363
 4.607
 6.859
 9.118
 10.858
90%
 3.287
 5.378
 7.397
 9.391
 11.554
80%
 4.189
 6.096
 7.998
 9.921
 11.967
50%
Median WR 		5.582
 7.428
 9.239
 11.069
 12.851
Only 1 case
Best Period (From) 		12.003
Jul 1982 		13.643
Jul 1982 		15.282
Jul 1982 		16.922
Jul 1982 		18.562
Jul 1982
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at August 2024

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, over 10 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 10-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Sep 2024
Period: Oct 1924 - Sep 2024
Period: Oct 1974 - Sep 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.48
93.63
69.47
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.02
89.92
64.72
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
98.55
85.46
59.62
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
97.74
78.74
54.52
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
94.90
72.65
48.55
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
93.57
66.98
44.03
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
99.77
89.11
61.70
38.70
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
99.19
84.01
55.74
32.44
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
96.87
76.59
48.84
24.97
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
95.48
70.74
42.87
19.52
7.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
7.495% 		0.00
93.28
63.50
37.37
16.22
7.50 %
99.94
0.06
87.95
57.07
30.59
13.21
8.00 %
98.78
1.22
81.40
49.13
22.42
10.14
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
98.15
72.25
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
93.80
66.60
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
86.96
59.85
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
79.56
54.30
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.81
74.84
47.64
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.07
69.47
43.29
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
92.51
62.72
37.37
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
85.11
55.50
31.27
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
78.54
47.83
22.57
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
73.36
41.72
16.93
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
98.61
65.03
36.08
13.41
7.50 %
100.00
0.00
90.75
57.08
29.05
9.62
8.00 %
100.00
0.00
83.07
48.10
19.61
6.94
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Swipe left to see all data
Withdrawal
Rate
% Success over 10 Years
% Fail
% Success over 10 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
At least 0%
Capital Preserved		 Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
96.67
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
93.56
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
91.68
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
88.57
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.58
82.74
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
96.05
75.26
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
92.10
63.41
5.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
88.77
52.18
6.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
82.12
35.76
6.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.38
71.52
27.03
7.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
93.35
60.08
20.79
7.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
88.77
47.82
14.55
8.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
79.83
30.98
12.06
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at August 2024

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio

For the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year    20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year    80-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com