Last Update: 28 February 2023
Do you have in mind a 40 years retirement, investing in the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 40 years of the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio
Over the last 40 years (last update: February 2023), the portfolio has returned 7.53% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -14.7%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 6.461%.
Timeframes ending at Feb 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
40 Years |
1 Mar 1983 |
28 Feb 2023 | 5.378 | 6.461 |
7.53 [ 4.56 ] |
-14.70 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 40-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
1.392 Apr 1940 |
1.840 Apr 1940 |
2.287 Apr 1940 |
2.728 Mar 1937 |
3.126 Feb 1937 |
3.301 95% Succ. |
3.417 90% Succ. |
3.627 80% Succ. |
4.246 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
3.180 |
3.451 |
3.736 |
3.988 |
4.246 | |||||
Average |
3.435 |
3.734 |
4.033 |
4.332 |
4.632 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
7.195 Jul 1982 |
7.455 Jul 1982 |
7.715 Jul 1982 |
7.975 Jul 1982 |
8.235 Jul 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
1.392 |
1.875 |
2.180 |
2.408 |
3.180 |
75% |
1.840 |
2.286 |
2.514 |
2.698 |
3.451 |
|
50% |
2.287 |
2.650 |
2.831 |
3.010 |
3.736 |
|
25% |
2.728 |
2.962 |
3.115 |
3.319 |
3.988 |
|
0% |
3.126 |
3.301 |
3.417 |
3.627 |
4.246 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
1.392 Apr 1940 |
1.840 Apr 1940 |
2.287 Apr 1940 |
2.728 Mar 1937 |
3.126 Feb 1937 |
3.284 95% Succ. |
3.431 90% Succ. |
3.857 80% Succ. |
4.350 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
3.352 |
3.595 |
3.839 |
4.105 |
4.350 | |||||
Average |
3.470 |
3.748 |
4.026 |
4.304 |
4.582 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
7.195 Jul 1982 |
7.455 Jul 1982 |
7.715 Jul 1982 |
7.975 Jul 1982 |
8.235 Jul 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
1.392 |
1.651 |
1.943 |
2.289 |
3.352 |
75% |
1.840 |
2.065 |
2.345 |
2.660 |
3.595 |
|
50% |
2.287 |
2.478 |
2.684 |
3.051 |
3.839 |
|
25% |
2.728 |
2.884 |
3.059 |
3.462 |
4.105 |
|
0% |
3.126 |
3.284 |
3.431 |
3.857 |
4.350 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio, over 40 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 40-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
40 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.52
|
94.06
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.88
|
90.65
|
76.10
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.126% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
93.76
|
80.55
|
66.67
|
58.28
|
3.50 % |
87.01
|
80% Succ. 3.627% |
12.99 |
87.01
|
69.56
|
61.02
|
47.66
|
32.96
|
4.00 % |
62.29
|
50% Succ. 4.246% |
37.71 |
62.29
|
49.07
|
37.64
|
28.95
|
24.42
|
4.50 % |
41.05
|
58.95 |
41.05
|
32.44
|
26.13
|
22.72
|
21.23
|
|
5.00 % |
30.29
|
69.71 |
30.29
|
24.50
|
21.31
|
17.82
|
13.59
|
|
5.50 % |
22.42
|
77.58 |
22.42
|
18.49
|
14.40
|
11.73
|
9.35
|
|
6.00 % |
15.00
|
85.00 |
15.00
|
11.95
|
9.80
|
7.80
|
5.86
|
|
6.50 % |
9.73
|
90.27 |
9.73
|
7.94
|
6.01
|
4.45
|
2.67
|
|
7.00 % |
6.46
|
93.54 |
6.46
|
4.60
|
2.90
|
1.19
|
0.30
|
|
7.50 % |
3.12
|
96.88 |
3.12
|
1.19
|
0.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.30
|
99.70 |
0.30
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Withdrawal Rate |
40 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 40 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.23
|
89.18
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
94.17
|
85.85
|
78.09
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 3.126% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
90.71
|
81.97
|
77.67
|
76.14
|
3.50 % |
88.90
|
80% Succ. 3.857% |
11.10 |
88.90
|
78.50
|
74.20
|
58.25
|
37.17
|
4.00 % |
70.87
|
50% Succ. 4.350% |
29.13 |
70.87
|
55.89
|
39.67
|
30.10
|
24.97
|
4.50 % |
42.58
|
57.42 |
42.58
|
29.68
|
24.97
|
22.33
|
20.53
|
|
5.00 % |
25.94
|
74.06 |
25.94
|
22.88
|
19.97
|
14.84
|
10.12
|
|
5.50 % |
19.56
|
80.44 |
19.56
|
15.12
|
10.68
|
7.49
|
4.99
|
|
6.00 % |
10.54
|
89.46 |
10.54
|
7.35
|
4.85
|
3.61
|
3.05
|
|
6.50 % |
4.16
|
95.84 |
4.16
|
3.19
|
2.77
|
2.36
|
1.66
|
|
7.00 % |
2.64
|
97.36 |
2.64
|
2.22
|
1.66
|
1.25
|
0.55
|
|
7.50 % |
1.66
|
98.34 |
1.66
|
1.11
|
0.55
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
|
8.00 % |
0.28
|
99.72 |
0.28
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio
For the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com