Desert Portfolio: 20-year retirement

Last Update: 30 April 2023

Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio?

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Key Points

Worst case scenario so far, over a 20-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 4.557% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 20 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 20 years in the 100% of cases. In the 38.89% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

The last 20 years of the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio

Over the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 5.97% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -14.7%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.467%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Apr 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
20 Years 1 May 2003
 30 Apr 2023 3.600 7.467 5.97
[ 3.34 ] 		-14.70
Jan 2022 - Sep 2022
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Aug 1898 		0.259
Jul 1901 		1.826
Jul 1901 		3.392
Jul 1901 		4.557
Apr 1911 		5.062
95% Succ. 		5.242
90% Succ. 		5.592
80% Succ. 		7.119
50% Succ.
Median 3.475
 4.385
 5.301
 6.203
 7.119
Average 3.697
 4.546
 5.416
 6.287
 7.157
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		9.192
Jul 1920 		9.812
Jul 1920 		10.432
Jul 1920 		11.052
Jul 1920 		11.690
Jun 1920
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.715
 1.333
 1.918
 3.475
75% 0.259
 1.896
 2.335
 2.864
 4.385
50% 1.826
 3.002
 3.325
 3.809
 5.301
25% 3.392
 4.091
 4.290
 4.667
 6.203
0% 4.557
 5.062
 5.242
 5.592
 7.119
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.759
Oct 1961 		2.003
Mar 1937 		3.002
Mar 1937 		4.000
Mar 1937 		4.997
Feb 1937 		5.300
95% Succ. 		5.513
90% Succ. 		5.868
80% Succ. 		7.154
50% Succ.
Median 3.543
 4.452
 5.356
 6.300
 7.154
Average 3.680
 4.547
 5.413
 6.280
 7.146
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		8.497
Jul 1982 		9.190
Jul 1982 		9.884
Jul 1982 		10.578
Jul 1982 		11.272
Jul 1982
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.759
 1.404
 1.674
 2.051
 3.543
75% 2.003
 2.414
 2.652
 3.080
 4.452
50% 3.002
 3.409
 3.626
 4.088
 5.356
25% 4.000
 4.379
 4.603
 4.958
 6.300
0% 4.997
 5.300
 5.513
 5.868
 7.154
Period: May 1973 - Apr 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		3.224
Jan 1999 		4.049
Jun 1973 		4.692
Jun 1973 		5.334
Jun 1973 		5.975
Jul 1973 		6.818
95% Succ. 		6.983
90% Succ. 		7.267
80% Succ. 		7.923
50% Succ.
Median 4.961
 5.701
 6.442
 7.166
 7.923
Average 5.100
 5.835
 6.569
 7.304
 8.038
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		8.497
Jul 1982 		9.190
Jul 1982 		9.884
Jul 1982 		10.578
Jul 1982 		11.272
Jul 1982
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 3.224
 3.578
 3.706
 4.082
 4.961
75% 4.049
 4.393
 4.556
 4.848
 5.701
50% 4.692
 5.165
 5.375
 5.684
 6.442
25% 5.334
 6.005
 6.183
 6.499
 7.166
0% 5.975
 6.818
 6.983
 7.267
 7.923
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Apr 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
99.81
93.71
77.91
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
98.36
87.22
67.90
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
95.09
77.66
59.28
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
99.87
86.09
64.32
49.28
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
96.41
75.58
57.71
38.89
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.557% 		0.00
100.00
85.02
62.30
46.95
34.68
5.00 %
96.48
95% Succ.
5.062% 		3.52
96.48
72.25
55.76
37.07
26.31
5.50 %
82.69
80% Succ.
5.592% 		17.31
82.69
60.98
44.93
31.47
19.32
6.00 %
70.67
29.33
70.67
54.75
35.18
22.78
15.23
6.50 %
60.04
39.96
60.04
42.16
27.12
17.37
9.57
7.00 %
52.80
50% Succ.
7.119% 		47.20
52.80
31.78
19.57
11.33
6.61
7.50 %
38.77
61.23
38.77
23.66
14.29
7.49
4.41
8.00 %
28.38
71.62
28.38
16.61
8.81
5.10
1.95
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: May 1923 - Apr 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
81.06
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
93.13
70.34
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
82.10
61.29
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
93.13
67.12
50.99
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
81.79
60.04
37.77
4.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
4.997% 		0.00
100.00
92.30
65.76
48.07
32.36
5.00 %
99.79
95% Succ.
5.300% 		0.21
99.79
78.77
57.23
35.69
23.31
5.50 %
90.32
90% Succ.
5.513% 		9.68
90.32
63.89
45.37
28.10
15.09
6.00 %
75.34
24.66
75.34
56.09
33.19
19.15
11.45
6.50 %
62.75
37.25
62.75
41.73
23.52
13.22
4.47
7.00 %
53.59
50% Succ.
7.154% 		46.41
53.59
28.93
15.19
6.66
2.19
7.50 %
37.77
62.23
37.77
19.88
10.09
2.81
1.25
8.00 %
25.29
74.71
25.29
12.17
4.16
1.56
0.52
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: May 1973 - Apr 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
20 Years
% Fail
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
2.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
3.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
96.68
4.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
81.44
4.50 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
90.86
71.47
5.00 %
100.00
0.00
100.00
100.00
97.23
77.01
48.75
5.50 %
100.00
100% Succ.
5.975% 		0.00
100.00
98.89
86.98
59.83
29.09
6.00 %
99.45
0.55
99.45
95.29
69.81
37.67
21.61
6.50 %
96.68
95% Succ.
6.818% 		3.32
96.68
79.78
47.37
24.10
11.08
7.00 %
88.92
80% Succ.
7.267% 		11.08
88.92
57.62
27.42
13.30
5.82
7.50 %
68.98
50% Succ.
7.923% 		31.02
68.98
37.12
16.62
7.48
3.32
8.00 %
47.09
52.91
47.09
19.67
9.14
4.16
1.39
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at April 2023

Related Pages

Portfolio Main Page:
Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio

For the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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