Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 5.97% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -14.7%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.467%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 May 2003 |
30 Apr 2023 | 3.600 | 7.467 |
5.97 [ 3.34 ] |
-14.70 Jan 2022 - Sep 2022 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.000 Aug 1898 |
0.259 Jul 1901 |
1.826 Jul 1901 |
3.392 Jul 1901 |
4.557 Apr 1911 |
5.062 95% Succ. |
5.242 90% Succ. |
5.592 80% Succ. |
7.119 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
3.475 |
4.385 |
5.301 |
6.203 |
7.119 | |||||
Average |
3.697 |
4.546 |
5.416 |
6.287 |
7.157 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
9.192 Jul 1920 |
9.812 Jul 1920 |
10.432 Jul 1920 |
11.052 Jul 1920 |
11.690 Jun 1920 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.000 |
0.715 |
1.333 |
1.918 |
3.475 |
75% |
0.259 |
1.896 |
2.335 |
2.864 |
4.385 |
|
50% |
1.826 |
3.002 |
3.325 |
3.809 |
5.301 |
|
25% |
3.392 |
4.091 |
4.290 |
4.667 |
6.203 |
|
0% |
4.557 |
5.062 |
5.242 |
5.592 |
7.119 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
0.759 Oct 1961 |
2.003 Mar 1937 |
3.002 Mar 1937 |
4.000 Mar 1937 |
4.997 Feb 1937 |
5.300 95% Succ. |
5.513 90% Succ. |
5.868 80% Succ. |
7.154 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
3.543 |
4.452 |
5.356 |
6.300 |
7.154 | |||||
Average |
3.680 |
4.547 |
5.413 |
6.280 |
7.146 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
8.497 Jul 1982 |
9.190 Jul 1982 |
9.884 Jul 1982 |
10.578 Jul 1982 |
11.272 Jul 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
0.759 |
1.404 |
1.674 |
2.051 |
3.543 |
75% |
2.003 |
2.414 |
2.652 |
3.080 |
4.452 |
|
50% |
3.002 |
3.409 |
3.626 |
4.088 |
5.356 |
|
25% |
4.000 |
4.379 |
4.603 |
4.958 |
6.300 |
|
0% |
4.997 |
5.300 |
5.513 |
5.868 |
7.154 |
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
3.224 Jan 1999 |
4.049 Jun 1973 |
4.692 Jun 1973 |
5.334 Jun 1973 |
5.975 Jul 1973 |
6.818 95% Succ. |
6.983 90% Succ. |
7.267 80% Succ. |
7.923 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
4.961 |
5.701 |
6.442 |
7.166 |
7.923 | |||||
Average |
5.100 |
5.835 |
6.569 |
7.304 |
8.038 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
8.497 Jul 1982 |
9.190 Jul 1982 |
9.884 Jul 1982 |
10.578 Jul 1982 |
11.272 Jul 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
3.224 |
3.578 |
3.706 |
4.082 |
4.961 |
75% |
4.049 |
4.393 |
4.556 |
4.848 |
5.701 |
|
50% |
4.692 |
5.165 |
5.375 |
5.684 |
6.442 |
|
25% |
5.334 |
6.005 |
6.183 |
6.499 |
7.166 |
|
0% |
5.975 |
6.818 |
6.983 |
7.267 |
7.923 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.81
|
93.71
|
77.91
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.36
|
87.22
|
67.90
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
95.09
|
77.66
|
59.28
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.87
|
86.09
|
64.32
|
49.28
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
96.41
|
75.58
|
57.71
|
38.89
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.557% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
85.02
|
62.30
|
46.95
|
34.68
|
5.00 % |
96.48
|
95% Succ. 5.062% |
3.52 |
96.48
|
72.25
|
55.76
|
37.07
|
26.31
|
5.50 % |
82.69
|
80% Succ. 5.592% |
17.31 |
82.69
|
60.98
|
44.93
|
31.47
|
19.32
|
6.00 % |
70.67
|
29.33 |
70.67
|
54.75
|
35.18
|
22.78
|
15.23
|
|
6.50 % |
60.04
|
39.96 |
60.04
|
42.16
|
27.12
|
17.37
|
9.57
|
|
7.00 % |
52.80
|
50% Succ. 7.119% |
47.20 |
52.80
|
31.78
|
19.57
|
11.33
|
6.61
|
7.50 % |
38.77
|
61.23 |
38.77
|
23.66
|
14.29
|
7.49
|
4.41
|
|
8.00 % |
28.38
|
71.62 |
28.38
|
16.61
|
8.81
|
5.10
|
1.95
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
81.06
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
93.13
|
70.34
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
82.10
|
61.29
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
93.13
|
67.12
|
50.99
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
81.79
|
60.04
|
37.77
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 4.997% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
92.30
|
65.76
|
48.07
|
32.36
|
5.00 % |
99.79
|
95% Succ. 5.300% |
0.21 |
99.79
|
78.77
|
57.23
|
35.69
|
23.31
|
5.50 % |
90.32
|
90% Succ. 5.513% |
9.68 |
90.32
|
63.89
|
45.37
|
28.10
|
15.09
|
6.00 % |
75.34
|
24.66 |
75.34
|
56.09
|
33.19
|
19.15
|
11.45
|
|
6.50 % |
62.75
|
37.25 |
62.75
|
41.73
|
23.52
|
13.22
|
4.47
|
|
7.00 % |
53.59
|
50% Succ. 7.154% |
46.41 |
53.59
|
28.93
|
15.19
|
6.66
|
2.19
|
7.50 % |
37.77
|
62.23 |
37.77
|
19.88
|
10.09
|
2.81
|
1.25
|
|
8.00 % |
25.29
|
74.71 |
25.29
|
12.17
|
4.16
|
1.56
|
0.52
|
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
96.68
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
81.44
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
90.86
|
71.47
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.23
|
77.01
|
48.75
|
|
5.50 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.975% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
98.89
|
86.98
|
59.83
|
29.09
|
6.00 % |
99.45
|
0.55 |
99.45
|
95.29
|
69.81
|
37.67
|
21.61
|
|
6.50 % |
96.68
|
95% Succ. 6.818% |
3.32 |
96.68
|
79.78
|
47.37
|
24.10
|
11.08
|
7.00 % |
88.92
|
80% Succ. 7.267% |
11.08 |
88.92
|
57.62
|
27.42
|
13.30
|
5.82
|
7.50 % |
68.98
|
50% Succ. 7.923% |
31.02 |
68.98
|
37.12
|
16.62
|
7.48
|
3.32
|
8.00 % |
47.09
|
52.91 |
47.09
|
19.67
|
9.14
|
4.16
|
1.39
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio
For the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year
50-Year
60-Year
70-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com