Three Funds Portfolio: 30-year retirement

Last Update: 30 November 2024

Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 5.941% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

With a 4% withdrawal strategy, you would have lived on your investiment for 30 years in the 100% of cases. In the 100% of cases, you would have preserved your initial inflation adjusted capital.

According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

The last 30 years of the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio

Over the last 30 years (last update: November 2024), the portfolio has returned 8.14% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -44.88%.

A safe withdrawal rate would have been 7.07%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the portfolio didn't run out of money during retirement. The portfolio went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation

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Timeframes ending at Nov 2024			Withdrawal Rate (%)		Investment Performances
Timeframe	Period from	Period to	Perpetual	Safe	Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ]	Max Drawdown(%)
30 Years	1 Dec 1994	30 Nov 2024	5.646	7.070	8.14 [ 5.49 ]	-44.88 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009

Simulations are calculated with actual returns of Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Portfolio is rebalanced each month | Inflation is updated at October 2024

For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:

SWR 100% Success

PWR 100% Capital Protection

Period: Dec 1974 - Nov 2024

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		WR (%) - Withdrawal Rate, on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
		100% Preserved	75% Preserved	50% Preserved	25% Preserved	0% Preserved
Success	100% Worst Period (From)	4.530 Sep 1987	4.882 Sep 1987	5.235 Sep 1987	5.588 Sep 1987	5.941 Sep 1987
	95%	4.834	5.222	5.575	5.928	6.291
	90%	5.110	5.467	5.827	6.183	6.573
	80%	5.292	5.662	6.041	6.406	6.791
	50% Median WR	6.463	6.785	7.027	7.268	7.557
	Only 1 case Best Period (From)	11.187 Aug 1982	11.551 Aug 1982	11.914 Aug 1982	12.278 Aug 1982	12.641 Aug 1982

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Dec 1974 - Nov 2024

Table Chart

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Withdrawal Rate	% Success over 30 Years		% Fail	% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital (Infl.Adj)
Withdrawal Rate	At least 0% Capital Preserved	Percentile	No Capital Preserved	25% Preserved	50% Preserved	75% Preserved	100% Preserved
2.00 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
2.50 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
3.00 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
3.50 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
4.00 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
4.50 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
5.00 %	100.00		0.00	100.00	100.00	99.59	92.53
5.50 %	100.00	100% Succ. 5.941%	0.00	100.00	96.27	88.38	73.44
6.00 %	99.59	95% Succ. 6.291%	0.41	94.61	80.91	68.46	57.68
6.50 %	92.95	90% Succ. 6.573%	7.05	76.76	61.41	55.19	49.79
7.00 %	69.71		30.29	56.85	50.21	44.81	38.59
7.50 %	51.04	50% Succ. 7.557%	48.96	46.89	41.49	33.61	28.63
8.00 %	42.32		57.68	36.10	31.12	24.90	18.67

Legend: Min% of Protected Capital

Min 0%

Min 25%

Min 50%

Min 75%

Min 100%

Portfolio Main Page:
Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio

For the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
10-Year 20-Year 30-Year

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2% 2.5% 3% 3.5% 4% 4.5% 5%

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

The last 30 years of the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Nov 2024)

Withdrawals and Success Rate

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