Last Update: 30 April 2023
Do you have in mind a 20 years retirement, investing in the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio?
According to the historical returns and stats of the portfolio, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?
The last 20 years of the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio
Over the last 20 years (last update: April 2023), the portfolio has returned 8.1% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -44.88%.
A safe withdrawal rate would have been 8.885%.
Timeframes ending at Apr 2023 |
Withdrawal Rate (%) |
Investment Performances |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Timeframe | Period from | Period to | Perpetual | Safe | Ann.Return(%) [ Infl.Adj. ] |
Max Drawdown(%) |
20 Years |
1 May 2003 |
30 Apr 2023 | 5.799 | 8.885 |
8.10 [ 5.43 ] |
-44.88 Nov 2007 - Feb 2009 |
For a complete view of the portfolio and all the possible strategies, please refer to Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio page.
Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Apr 2023)
How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio?
Analyzing the available data source, all the 20-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.
PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
|
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
|
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preserved Capital | 100% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Success Rate | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | |
Minimum Worst Period (from) |
1.945 Apr 2000 |
2.770 Apr 2000 |
3.594 Apr 2000 |
4.419 Apr 2000 |
5.243 Apr 2000 |
5.912 95% Succ. |
6.205 90% Succ. |
7.419 80% Succ. |
8.543 50% Succ. |
|
Median |
5.592 |
6.371 |
7.112 |
7.828 |
8.543 | |||||
Average |
6.160 |
6.828 |
7.496 |
8.165 |
8.833 | |||||
Maximum Best Period (from) |
12.483 Aug 1982 |
13.185 Aug 1982 |
13.887 Aug 1982 |
14.589 Aug 1982 |
15.291 Aug 1982 |
Key Withdrawal Rates (%) |
Success Rate | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 95% | 90% | 80% | 50% | ||
Preserved Capital | 100% |
1.945 |
2.961 |
3.658 |
4.305 |
5.592 |
75% |
2.770 |
3.690 |
4.395 |
5.122 |
6.371 |
|
50% |
3.594 |
4.411 |
5.027 |
5.926 |
7.112 |
|
25% |
4.419 |
5.161 |
5.567 |
6.694 |
7.828 |
|
0% |
5.243 |
5.912 |
6.205 |
7.419 |
8.543 |
Withdrawals and Success Rate
If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio, over 20 years, which would have been the success rate so far?
Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.
Success rates are calculated over all 20-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.
Withdrawal Rate |
20 Years
|
% Fail
|
% Success over 20 Years - on % Preserved Capital
|
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Success | Percentile | No Capital Preserved |
0% Preserved |
25% Preserved |
50% Preserved |
75% Preserved |
100% Preserved |
|
2.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
|
2.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.45
|
|
3.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
99.72
|
94.74
|
|
3.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
100.00
|
97.78
|
91.41
|
|
4.00 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
100.00
|
98.89
|
92.52
|
86.98
|
|
4.50 % |
100.00
|
0.00 |
100.00
|
99.72
|
94.18
|
89.75
|
75.90
|
|
5.00 % |
100.00
|
100% Succ. 5.243% |
0.00 |
100.00
|
96.95
|
90.03
|
82.55
|
66.48
|
5.50 % |
98.34
|
95% Succ. 5.912% |
1.66 |
98.34
|
91.41
|
85.32
|
70.64
|
52.63
|
6.00 % |
93.07
|
90% Succ. 6.205% |
6.93 |
93.07
|
86.98
|
76.73
|
61.22
|
43.77
|
6.50 % |
88.09
|
11.91 |
88.09
|
82.55
|
66.48
|
46.81
|
36.57
|
|
7.00 % |
83.38
|
80% Succ. 7.419% |
16.62 |
83.38
|
73.68
|
53.19
|
38.50
|
31.86
|
7.50 % |
78.39
|
21.61 |
78.39
|
62.05
|
40.44
|
31.58
|
27.70
|
|
8.00 % |
68.42
|
31.58 |
68.42
|
45.98
|
32.13
|
26.87
|
24.38
|
Related Pages
Portfolio Main Page:
Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio
For the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year
30-Year
if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com