US T-Bills (1-3mths): 30-year retirement

Last Update: 28 February 2023

Do you have in mind a 30 years retirement, investing in the US T-Bills (1-3mths) asset class?

According to the historical returns and stats of the asset class, which has been a sustainable withdrawal rate to live off your investiment?

Worst case scenario so far, over a 30-year time horizon, you could have withdrawn 2.172% of your initial capital each year, kept withdrawing all the time (adjusting for inflation), and you wouldn't have run out of money before 30 years.

Considering the last 30 years (last update: February 2023), a safe withdrawal rate would have been 3.668%.

The last 30 years of the US T-Bills (1-3mths) asset class

Over the last 30 years (last update: February 2023), the asset class has returned 2.19% annualized, with a maximum drawdown of -0.42%.

The Withdrawal Rates calculated here are annualized and refer to the initial capital (not the current!). The first month withdrawal is 1/12 of that annualized withdrawal and it's adjusted for inflation for each subsequent month.

A Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) protected the original inflation adjusted capital.

A Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) didn't protect the original capital, but the investment didn't run out of money during retirement. The capital went to zero exaclty at the end of the retirement period.

Learn more about Withdrawal Rate simulation
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Timeframes ending at Feb 2023
Withdrawal Rate (%)
Investment Performances
Timeframe Period from Period to Perpetual Safe Ann.Return(%)
[ Infl.Adj. ]		 Max
Drawdown(%)
30 Years 1 Mar 1993
 28 Feb 2023 0.000 3.668 2.19
[ -0.29 ] 		-0.42
Nov 2009 - Dec 2015
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US T-Bills (1-3mths) Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

For a complete view of the asset class and all the possible strategies, please refer to US T-Bills (1-3mths) page.

Withdrawal Rates Simulation (updated at Feb 2023)

How much would it be an acceptable withdrawal rate, for the US T-Bills (1-3mths) asset class?

Analyzing the available data source, all the 30-years timeframes have been considered to calculate the withdrawal rates and their success percentage.

Legend:
SWR 100% Success
PWR 100% Capital Protection
Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Sep 1923 		0.000
Jan 1931 		0.318
Apr 1933 		1.246
May 1933 		2.172
May 1933 		2.274
95% Succ. 		2.659
90% Succ. 		3.677
80% Succ. 		4.000
50% Succ.
Median 1.272
 1.912
 2.562
 3.240
 4.000
Average 1.748
 2.335
 3.022
 3.731
 4.440
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		8.352
May 1872 		8.697
Apr 1873 		9.042
Apr 1873 		9.388
Apr 1873 		9.733
Apr 1873
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 1.272
75% 0.000
 0.000
 0.255
 0.939
 1.912
50% 0.318
 0.635
 1.099
 1.855
 2.562
25% 1.246
 1.430
 1.887
 2.745
 3.240
0% 2.172
 2.274
 2.659
 3.677
 4.000
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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PWR (%) - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
SWR (%) - Safe Withdrawal Rate
Preserved Capital 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Success Rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Minimum
Worst Period (from) 		0.000
Sep 1923 		0.000
Jan 1931 		0.318
Apr 1933 		1.246
May 1933 		2.172
May 1933 		2.245
95% Succ. 		2.283
90% Succ. 		2.719
80% Succ. 		3.750
50% Succ.
Median 0.584
 1.436
 2.240
 3.064
 3.750
Average 0.707
 1.280
 2.025
 2.809
 3.593
Maximum
Best Period (from) 		2.207
Oct 1980 		2.917
Dec 1980 		3.630
Dec 1980 		4.344
Dec 1980 		5.057
Dec 1980
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Key
Withdrawal
Rates (%) 		Success Rate
100% 95% 90% 80% 50%
Preserved Capital 100% 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.584
75% 0.000
 0.000
 0.000
 0.335
 1.436
50% 0.318
 0.562
 0.648
 1.137
 2.240
25% 1.246
 1.413
 1.449
 1.912
 3.064
0% 2.172
 2.245
 2.283
 2.719
 3.750
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US T-Bills (1-3mths) Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Withdrawals and Success Rate

If you had implemented a specific Withdrawal Strategy with the US T-Bills (1-3mths) asset class, over 30 years, which would have been the success rate so far?

Simulations follow the same rules mentioned before. Withdrawals are expressed as yearly rates and refer to the initial capital. After that, withdrawal amount is monthly adjusted for inflation.

Success rates are calculated over all 30-year timeframes available in the data source. To focus on a specific withdrawal rate, click on the links in the table.

Period: Jan 1871 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
2.172% 		0.00
100.00
87.32
77.37
44.92
29.11
2.50 %
91.68
90% Succ.
2.659% 		8.32
91.68
84.32
57.67
31.70
17.45
3.00 %
87.18
12.82
87.18
74.44
35.58
19.29
14.86
3.50 %
83.23
80% Succ.
3.677% 		16.77
83.23
41.24
21.61
15.06
14.25
4.00 %
50.03
50% Succ.
4.000% 		49.97
50.03
24.40
17.11
14.72
13.09
4.50 %
28.49
71.51
28.49
18.88
14.86
13.43
11.86
5.00 %
21.68
78.32
21.68
16.36
13.97
11.79
10.22
5.50 %
18.27
81.73
18.27
14.72
11.59
10.02
8.66
6.00 %
15.47
84.53
15.47
11.25
9.95
8.38
6.88
6.50 %
11.11
88.89
11.11
9.88
8.25
6.68
4.84
7.00 %
9.82
90.18
9.82
7.91
6.27
4.43
3.54
7.50 %
7.50
92.50
7.50
6.13
4.09
3.14
2.59
8.00 %
5.73
94.27
5.73
3.68
2.93
2.18
1.30
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Period: Mar 1923 - Feb 2023
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Withdrawal
Rate
30 Years
% Fail
% Success over 30 Years - on % Preserved Capital
% Success Percentile No Capital
Preserved		 0%
Preserved 		25%
Preserved 		50%
Preserved 		75%
Preserved 		100%
Preserved
2.00 %
100.00
100% Succ.
2.172% 		0.00
100.00
77.88
60.52
17.60
3.80
2.50 %
85.49
80% Succ.
2.719% 		14.51
85.49
72.65
33.41
6.54
0.00
3.00 %
77.65
22.35
77.65
56.72
9.63
0.00
0.00
3.50 %
70.75
50% Succ.
3.750% 		29.25
70.75
14.27
2.38
0.00
0.00
4.00 %
25.09
74.91
25.09
4.99
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.50 %
8.56
91.44
8.56
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00 %
1.55
98.45
1.55
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.50 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.00 %
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Legend: Min% of Protected Capital
Min 0%
Min 25%
Min 50%
Min 75%
Min 100%
Simulations are calculated with actual returns of US T-Bills (1-3mths) Asset Class | Preserved capital and withdrawals are considered adjusted for inflation | Withdrawals happen monthly | Performances are calculated in USD dollars, considering reinvestment of dividends when applicable | Inflation is updated at January 2023

Related Pages

Asset Class Main Page:
US T-Bills (1-3mths) Asset Class

For the US T-Bills (1-3mths) Asset Class, we have prepared a report for each available timeframe:
20-Year    30-Year    40-Year    50-Year    60-Year    70-Year   

if you want to learn more about the statistics of a specific withdrawal rate, we suggest these in particular:
2%    2.5%    3%    3.5%    4%    4.5%    5%   

Website Homepage:
BestRetirementPortfolio.com

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